Friday’s Surf – S-SSW swell holds with some onshore bump building early

Friday looks surfable for a few regions in the morning…but it looks like onshore flow will pick up early so the surf window won’t be all that big.

The S-SSW swell (180-210) will hold into early Friday and then start a slow drop later in the day. NW windswell will be increasing (along with the wind) so expect wave heights at the combo spots and the NW facing windswell breaks to come up a couple of notches at the end of the day.



The average S facing spots and good combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some rare bigger sets showing at times. The standout S facing breaks and excellent combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high waves sneaking through on the lower tides.

Earlier today I was actually a little more negative about the wind than I am now…the 12z weather model is showing a little cleaner conditions for the morning…not great, or completely without texture, but clean enough that if you have something to block the wind or knock down the bump (like a structure or cliff or a big patch of kelp) then it should be pretty manageable. Winds will be light/variable to variable onshore for the morning with the cleanest conditions showing around LA and Orange Counties…and a touch more onshore texture for Ventura, Santa Barbara, and the exposed areas of San Diego. 10-15+ W-NW winds return in the afternoon. I would keep an eye on conditions around sundown…the winds are supposed to switch around to offshore for Saturday and we might see some of that bleed over into Friday evening.

Here are all the wind models.









So if winds behave tomorrow it looks like there will be a few playful waves on tap for the morning. Nothing great…but fun enough that it will be worth a cam/buoy/conditions check if you have to drive a ways to the beach, and a quick drive-by check if you are close to the coast. The dawn patrol is probably going to be your best bet…we will be coming off a negative low tide and the winds will be lighter (and the S-SSW swell will be a bit stronger)…so try to hit it early if you can...but not too early because shape is going to be pretty drained out.

Here are the tides…

05/28/2010 Friday
04:37AM LDT -1.2 L (crap!)
11:01AM LDT 3.6 H
03:39PM LDT 2.0 L
09:46PM LDT 6.0 H (swampthing!)

Waves for the Weekend – holding S swell with some southie winds (and probably rain)

Neither Saturday or Sunday look all that good this weekend...there will be swell in the water but conditions work pretty hard to junk things up for most spots.

So the weather is the main villain this weekend…but like most weather there are usually some pockets where the conditions aren’t too bad…unfortunately there won’t be very many of them and it probably won’t be worth the time/money to hunt them down unless you have one or more of the following…a) you live close by, b) you have a lot of time to kill, c) are fanatically desperate for waves.

On Saturday the S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to hold in size but will drop slightly in swell period. NW energy, mostly windswell, will be on the rise in the background.



Sizewise, look for most spots to average in the waist-chest high range…with smaller, less consistent sizes at spots that are more sheltered from the S or NW swells. The top S facing breaks will see chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets. The top NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few rare pluses by the afternoon as the windswell continues to build.

Winds on Saturday continue to have the eddy-ish circulation…though how much is really from the eddy as opposed to the approaching cold front is still debatable. At this point it looks like S-SE winds around 10-knots on tap for most of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles…with the strongest winds showing as you get closer to Point Conception. Orange County and San Diego will have lighter S-SE winds…but I do expect most areas to still have some of the southerly eddy funk on things. All areas will see those winds build out of the S by the afternoon, likely hitting 15+ knots by later in the day.



Sunday the S swell (180-210) will be slowly fading out while the local windswell/stormswell starts to increase…don’t expect much energy from this approaching storm to show before dark, really the main push of the W stormswell will hit on Monday.



With the S swell dropping and most of the local windswell backing off/turning more southerly we can expect the surf size to back down a bit. Look for the average spots to hold in the waist high range with some rare chest high sets at spots with some better S exposure. The standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, will have chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets still pushing through on the lower tides.

The storm is forecast to move its front over Socal on Sunday…starting in the morning but with the meat of the system hitting Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Current forecasts are calling for S winds 10-15 knots for most spots on Sunday morning…heaviest in the Northern Counties…and lighter as you head down toward SD and OC.



So like I said…unless you have a spot that somehow is protected from the S winds (but is still exposed to S swell) tucked away close by I wouldn’t waste a ton of time trying to find clean surf. I am hoping that this storm stalls out, or does something weird like heading out to sea, or just grinds through the Central Coast…something/anything that can help deflect some of the junky conditions. Like usual…since we have some swell in the water…it is always a good idea to keep a “weather eye” on conditions, storm fronts are dynamic enough that they can sometimes open some quick windows as they pass over a region…so if you are close to the beach you might be able to grab a few nuggets before things switch again.

Here are the tides…cross your fingers that the weather part of this forecast is wrong (I will be)…have a good weekend!

04/10/2010 Saturday
01:51AM LDT 1.2 L
07:35AM LDT 4.2 H
02:00PM LDT 0.5 L
08:09PM LDT 4.4 H

04/11/2010 Sunday
02:23AM LDT 0.9 L
08:12AM LDT 4.2 H
02:23PM LDT 0.6 L
08:28PM LDT 4.7 H

Waves for Wednesday – the Combo swell continues

Wednesday will be a surf day.

In the water we will have a mix of SW swell (200-220), some NW swell (290-300), and a little dash of local WNW windswell…all of which are blending nicely together at the better exposed beaches. There are a few shadowing issues here and there…so make sure that you pick an area that is getting the full exposure. Check out the current “Nowcast” from the CDIP…



And here is what it is going to look like tomorrow...



Average spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets if the break has a little combo exposure. The best SW facing spots and the best combo spots will be in the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides.

Winds look good on Wednesday…we will start off with mostly light and variable winds, even some light offshore flow in a few spots. Expect some pockets of patchy fog. This will burn off by the afternoon but the winds will shift onshore around the same time…and come in out of the NW at 10-15 knots along the really exposed breaks.



Looks fun tomorrow…there will be plenty of waves at the exposed areas…and some decent size at the standouts. Orange County and parts of San Diego are going to be the most exposed to this swell mix…but LA and Ventura will have their pockets of awesomeness as well. Santa Barbara gets a bit left out…but after all the west swells this winter I am not feeling all that bad for them. The tide is a little high in the morning so if you are venturing out to get it right at dawn you might want to stick with spots that can handle a little extra water.

I’m skipping the regional forecasts tonight…but they should be back in action tomorrow.

Have a good one…send me some photos if you get some good ones (and surf reports…I love surf reports).

03/24/2010 Wednesday
04:21AM LDT 4.6 H
12:16PM LDT -0.2 L
07:04PM LDT 3.5 H
11:51PM LDT 2.2 L

Friday’s Surf – lingering combo with cleaner conditions

Friday will be a surf day.

The WNW-NW swell (285-300) will slowly, very slowly fade out on Friday…it gets a little medium period reinforcement swell that helps to prop up the bigger energy from Thursday. Our S-SW swell (180-210) will stick around and continue to be a bit inconsistent on the sets. Winds look a little better for Friday and it looks like they should stay lighter longer and help us extend the surf window.



Most of the average WNW facing breaks and the better combo spots will see some waist-shoulder high surf. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spot (mostly in Ven/So-Bay/South SD areas) will see surf more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets showing on the lower tides. Remember the NPAC swell has most of the energy coming in pretty steep (above 290) so only the really exposed spots will have the bigger sets.

Winds look decent on Friday…mostly light and variable for the morning but with some pockets of light offshore flow near the usual passes and canyons. There may be some fog early in the morning but it looks like it will burn off or push offshore pretty quickly after sunrise. Afternoon winds look light as well…expect some variable onshore flow around 10-12 knots for most areas.



Friday looks like a much better surf day than Thursday…the winds are supposed to cooperate a bit more and it looks like the mix of WNW-NW/S-SW swell will even out a bit and let the swells combo up a bit better than they have been. Personally I am going to try and get out and surf in the morning while the winds are light and the tide is low...but I don’t think that dawn-patrol is totally critical…conditions should hold together long enough to get a few clean ones through mid-morning and the “high” tide is only a 3-footer that finally rolls in around lunchtime…so it shouldn’t hurt us too bad either.

Here are the tides…

03/19/2010 Friday
06:07AM LDT 0.3 L
12:04PM LDT 3.2 H
05:17PM LDT 1.5 L
11:39PM LDT 5.0 H