So the weather is the main villain this weekend…but like most weather there are usually some pockets where the conditions aren’t too bad…unfortunately there won’t be very many of them and it probably won’t be worth the time/money to hunt them down unless you have one or more of the following…a) you live close by, b) you have a lot of time to kill, c) are fanatically desperate for waves.
On Saturday the S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to hold in size but will drop slightly in swell period. NW energy, mostly windswell, will be on the rise in the background.
Sizewise, look for most spots to average in the waist-chest high range…with smaller, less consistent sizes at spots that are more sheltered from the S or NW swells. The top S facing breaks will see chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets. The top NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a few rare pluses by the afternoon as the windswell continues to build.
Winds on Saturday continue to have the eddy-ish circulation…though how much is really from the eddy as opposed to the approaching cold front is still debatable. At this point it looks like S-SE winds around 10-knots on tap for most of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles…with the strongest winds showing as you get closer to Point Conception. Orange County and San Diego will have lighter S-SE winds…but I do expect most areas to still have some of the southerly eddy funk on things. All areas will see those winds build out of the S by the afternoon, likely hitting 15+ knots by later in the day.
Sunday the S swell (180-210) will be slowly fading out while the local windswell/stormswell starts to increase…don’t expect much energy from this approaching storm to show before dark, really the main push of the W stormswell will hit on Monday.
With the S swell dropping and most of the local windswell backing off/turning more southerly we can expect the surf size to back down a bit. Look for the average spots to hold in the waist high range with some rare chest high sets at spots with some better S exposure. The standout S facing spots, mostly through Orange County, will have chest-shoulder high surf with some inconsistent head high sets still pushing through on the lower tides.
The storm is forecast to move its front over Socal on Sunday…starting in the morning but with the meat of the system hitting Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Current forecasts are calling for S winds 10-15 knots for most spots on Sunday morning…heaviest in the Northern Counties…and lighter as you head down toward SD and OC.
So like I said…unless you have a spot that somehow is protected from the S winds (but is still exposed to S swell) tucked away close by I wouldn’t waste a ton of time trying to find clean surf. I am hoping that this storm stalls out, or does something weird like heading out to sea, or just grinds through the Central Coast…something/anything that can help deflect some of the junky conditions. Like usual…since we have some swell in the water…it is always a good idea to keep a “weather eye” on conditions, storm fronts are dynamic enough that they can sometimes open some quick windows as they pass over a region…so if you are close to the beach you might be able to grab a few nuggets before things switch again.
Here are the tides…cross your fingers that the weather part of this forecast is wrong (I will be)…have a good weekend!
04/10/2010 Saturday
01:51AM LDT 1.2 L
07:35AM LDT 4.2 H
02:00PM LDT 0.5 L
08:09PM LDT 4.4 H
04/11/2010 Sunday
02:23AM LDT 0.9 L
08:12AM LDT 4.2 H
02:23PM LDT 0.6 L
08:28PM LDT 4.7 H
