Monday, May 4, 2009

Surf for Tuesday – Building WNW-NW energy

Tuesday looks like a marginal surf day.

We will have some building swell but shape and winds could make things a bit funky. We are going to see new WNW-NW swell, a medium-period/windswell combo, that fills in overnight and peaks through Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday before fading out. On Tuesday it will mix with some very background SW leftovers as well.

I am not super stoked on this WNW’er even though the model likes it...the storm didn’t have a ton of wind...and the actual 10-14 second energy that the WavewatchIII model is calling for isn’t all that much (only about 2-3’ of deepwater energy). The majority of the “size” in the model is forecast to be generated by local windswell (thanks to strengthening winds in the outer waters). Ideally these 2 swells will blend nicely and we will get to have some fun...but realistically I think that they will be a bit gutless and stacked/lumpy as they overlap.

Sizewise the WNW facing spots can expect some chest high+ surf with some bigger sets coming through on the lower tides. The standout NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will have more consistent shoulder-high+ surf with some head high sets in the afternoon. Shape like I said will be a little suspect but there are always those windswell breaks that can be playful.

Winds will be ok to marginal...a lot will depend on how much the eddy spins up overnight. Right now it looks like Ventura/Santa Barbara will have some NW flow around 10+ knots through the morning. LA will be more variable thanks to the eddy swirl. OC and SD will be variable to light out of the S in the morning...but look for more SW bump by midmorning. W-NW winds 10-15 knots move in by the afternoon.

Since the WNW energy has some fairly steep swell angles (some of the energy is 295+) San Diego is going to see the most size tomorrow...with Ventura and the South Bay running pretty close. I don’t think it is worth driving to any of these areas since there will be waves in almost every other region but if you are located somewhere in between I would check those spots first. With winds being questionable I would probably give the cams/buoys/weather-stations a check in the morning before committing to driving any sort of distance.

Here are the tides...oh and it sucks that Cinco de Mayo is on a Tuesday this year.

01:43AM LDT 0.5 L
07:29AM LDT 4.0 H
01:25PM LDT 0.7 L
07:40PM LDT 5.4 H

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

A guy caught a 4 foot blue shark off the IB pier today. Other than that, IB was magic this morning!