Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Long-Range Outlook – Because talking about small waves really sucks

I have been looking over the long-range charts and I have some good news and some bad news.

First the Bad News...this run of small surf (that is hitting right now) is going to continue for the next few days. I know it hasn’t been completely flat...but it certainly hasn’t been all that fun. We can expect small ankle-knee high+ waves at the average spots to continue through at least Saturday (May 30th)...and probably Sunday as well.

The Good News is that the South Pacific has started to pick up some steam again. The high-pressure that had been putting the hurt on the SPAC storm track has finally started to break down and move out towards Chile. The high actually started to erode several days ago but it took a little while to get some favorable fetch to develop in our swell window.

As of this afternoon we have a few new, but somewhat small, pulses of S-SW swell heading our way. Check it out...

The first swell is a mini-S swell (180-190) that will be arriving slowly through the day on May 31st...but shows a little better by June 1st. This little guy looks good for more consistent knee-waist high surf at the average spots and maybe a few waist high+ sets at the top spots. Nothing to get excited about but better than completely flat surf.

That first pulse will be followed by a slightly bigger SW’er (200-220) that comes in on June 2nd and holds through the 3rd. This one is a little bigger...but it has a more westerly angle...which means that North LA, South OC, and San Diego will be a little more exposed (while North OC is more shadowed). The average spots will be more consistently around waist high with this one while the standout SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks that get a little windswell, will be waist-chest high with a couple of rare plus sets.

The third swell is another SW’er (195-215) that is bigger than the previous swells...and looks like it should be fun at the exposed spots. The current satellites are showing some decent wind speeds (40-45+ knots) in the key areas of fetch...and you can see that the WavewatchIII model is predicting some longer swell-periods. This swell will arrive slowly on June 4th and likely peak on the 5-6th before fading. At this point the swell looks good for chest high surf at most of the exposed areas with some shoulder high+ sets at the standouts.

Further out...there is even more storm activity forecasted to push through that same part of the swell window over by New Zealand...and while it still has a few days to form it has been a pretty consistent feature on the forecast charts which is nice. If this storm can live up to forecasts we should see another pulse of SW swell (210-220) hitting our area around the 12-13th.

Just to be clear...none of these swells are particularly noteworthy...I wouldn’t get to fired up over any of the ones that are already in the water heading our way. I was getting sick of telling you how flat it is going to be over the next few days...hopefully this gives us a little to look forward to.

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