Swell Semi-Alert - Finally the South Pacific comes back online

Just to head off the hype before it gets started...this isn't a big swell...hell in the scheme of things it probably wouldn't even stand out as much of anything...but considering that we have had a couple of weeks of near flatness it is definitely worth mentioning. So hear it goes.

The details

A few days ago we had a decent storm spin up down in the South Pacific...right around the 40S Latitude and 120W Longitude...which is basically due south of Southern California. The storm made a nice push northward (right at us) as it intensified...eventually capping out with winds around 40-50 knots and nearly 30-foot seas in a fetch that was aimed our direction.

Check out the Wavewatch III swell model...you can see the storm (with the yellow blog just off the coast of Chile) the wave heights are in meters.

Here you can see the swell moving (this map tracks the dominant swell period). Watch the yellow blob move out from the storm area...oh and keep an eye on the darker red (long-period) SW swell that fills in behind the S swell.

Finally here is some QuikSCAT satellite data of the storm as well...this is the core of the fetch that set up a day or two ago.

The surf

I know what you are saying, "gee the charts are pretty but what about the waves?"

Well those are on the way as well...we can expect this new S swell (175-190) to move into SoCal late on Tuesday Sept 2nd...setting up some new waves before sundown.

The peak of the swell will hit on Wednesday September 3rd and hold into Thursday September 4th.

Like I said above it isn't a great swell...I expect the average S facing spots to see surf in the chest-shoulder high+ range with a few inconsistent head high sets.

Standout S facing breaks, mostly through Orange County, will have chest-head high surf with a few head high+ sets sneaking through at the top breaks in the area.

Winds and weather are looking good for this swell (at this point)...and there may even be some background WNW energy to help break it up at the combo spots...so while it isn't the biggest swell it should be a lot more fun than we have seen for a couple of weeks.

Random Friday Morning Update – It looks fun. Go Surfing!

That SW’er really filled in overnight and it showing some good sized surf to the exposed areas…and to make it better there is still a decent amount of WNW windswell and background S-SW energy to keep even the shadowed areas in some surf.

Conditions are clean, the surf has decent shape and some punch…and I am seeing a few barrels sneak through at some of the dumpier beach breaks out there.

It is running about chest high everywhere (except maybe Seal Beach and a lot of the far north OC spots). The top breaks that can pull in the mix of SW and WNW energy are hitting head high and head high+ on the bigger sets.

San Diego and South Orange County in particular are seeing a lot of quality surf this morning.

So if you have the time, get some!

Here is a shot of the O-side buoy this morning…lots of long-period SW swell showing on it.

Thursday – Yeah a Surf Day!

Thursday looks like a surf day…a fun surf day.

We have a lot of things going for us tomorrow. We have a decent mix of W windswell, new WNW swell (290-300) and a fun-sized SW swell (190-210). We are also expecting light-offshore winds and cleaner conditions through the morning. Then to top it off water quality is finally starting to improve.

Surfwise, thanks to the swell mix, most spots will hold in the waist-shoulder range. Good combo spots and the swell-magnet standout breaks will have some bigger head high sets. Biggest surf will likely be at the standouts in San Diego, and a few in OC, the South Bay, and Southern Ventura. Other areas will be smaller but should have fun waves as well.

If you got time to get some waves tomorrow I think that morning through about lunchtime will be your best bet. Winds are expected to shift a little more onshore in the afternoon. I think there is enough swell in the water that you don’t have to drive very far to get waves...your local combo spot should be plenty fun. You could still check the cams in the morning to be safe but personally I am going to head down to the beach after finishing the morning reports.