Waves for Wednesday – New W-WNW swell

Wednesday is looking like a surf day…though it may start a little slow in the morning.

We are going to have a new pulse of W-WNW swell (275-300) that will be filling in throughout the day…it will start to show up in Santa Barbara and Ventura earlier in the morning and then pushing into the more southerly counties by the afternoon. Check out a satellite shot of the storm spinning out this swell just off the coast this afternoon.



And close up with the lovely windbarbs…



This is another of those swells where the energy is loaded more in the (290-300) range, but there is enough juice in the more westerly portion of the fetch that most W facing breaks will be able to pull in some new waves. There will also be a little touch of SSW energy in the water (190-210), not enough to break up the building W swell, but hopefully enough to crease some of the sets at the combo spots. Check out how the CDIP models are showing this swell fill in.


Wait for it


Just a bit longer


Here you go


Now don't you feel better

So for tomorrow…I expect most of the average WNW facing breaks to start off with surf in the waist-chest high range, with mostly soft and slow shape thanks to that morning high tide. A few of the better WNW-NW facing areas up in Santa Barbara and Ventura (mostly Ventura) will have some chest-shoulder high surf with bigger sets mixing in at times.

By the afternoon all of the W-WNW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout WNW-NW breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf running consistently chest-head high with overhead sets on those drained out lower tides. This swell will continue to fill in overnight and it looks like similar but more consistent sizes on tap for Thursday, and possibly some bigger sets at the standouts.

Winds look really good for most areas tomorrow…light and variable to light offshore in the morning, with clean conditions on tap for most spots. F-ing freezing air temps though, which will suck. Look for moderate/variable onshore flow in the midafternoon but with a chance for winds to lay down in the protected areas as the sun sets, overall it shouldn’t get too blown out, particularly if our air temps stay on the cool side.



Like I said…tomorrow looks pretty fun. Don’t expect a ton of new waves in the morning unless you live way up the coast…and even those areas will have to contend with the morning high tide…but by the afternoon the well exposed spots should have plenty to ride. Points and Reefs look like they will have the best shape. Beach breaks will likely be pretty lined up, but you might be able to find a few corners at spots with good sandbars or something to break up the WNW energy.

Here are the tides…happy hump day!

12/16/2009 Wednesday
01:56AM LST 2.4 L
08:04AM LST 6.0 H (Swampthing!)
03:37PM LST -0.9 L
10:07PM LST 3.6 H


Oh and the Pipe Master final between Slater and Taj just started…they are broadcasting it live in HD on FuelTV (on the actual TV, not just your ‘puter). What live surfing on TV?!? That is just crazy talk.

Tuesday’s Swampiness – Wake me when the swell gets here

Tuesday will not be a surf day.

The combination of a weak swell mix (leftover NW and SW energy) and the high morning tide is going to kill off most of our surfiness. Of course the conditions will be great (after it warms up)…since we don’t have much to ride.



Ok despite my ever so cheerful intro it won’t be completely flat…it will just feel like it as the tide peaks (for most spots). Once we get the tide to a semi-manageable level we can expect a few knee high lines coming through at the average spots…maybe a rare knee-high+ set at times. The standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the knee-waist high range with a few chest high sets sneaking into the best exposed spots down towards San Diego.

Winds look good for Monday…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore for the morning (showing the strongest offshore flow up toward SB/Ventura/LA). Then variable onshore winds, mostly out of the W, around 8-12 knots for the afternoon.



Your best bet is going to be waiting to surf until the tide drops…fortunately the winds should cooperate, staying light enough that it won’t be all torn up by the time the tide recedes. Stick with the small wave boards, longboards or something with a ton of foam (like an aircraft carrier) will probably be the most fun. Fortunately some actual swell will arrive later this week…make sure to read the long-range forecast in case you haven’t.

Here are the tides…

11/17/2009 Tuesday
02:09AM LST 2.1 L
08:18AM LST 6.2 H
03:46PM LST -0.7 L
10:10PM LST 3.6 H

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Surf for Friday – Swamptacular!

Friday will be a nice beach day (once it warms up)…but there isn’t going to be much surf.

We will have a mix of quickly fading short-period NW energy and some stubborn (and small) SW swell (200-220) that is holding in the background. Expect the NW swell to continue to drop off as we move through the day.



Unfortunately the dawn patrol is going to get whacked with a 5’+ high tide that will peak right around 7:30am, which is going to steamroll the surf at most breaks. Once the tide starts dropping we will have a little surf sneak through setting up some knee-knee high+ waves at the average exposed spots…and maybe a little waist high set on the breaks that handle the higher tides a little better. The standout NW facing spots, mostly through Southern SD, Southern Ventura, and parts of the South Bay, will have a little more size…more in the knee-waist high range on the average sets and then a couple waist-chest high waves on the biggest sets. Remember to watch the tide…even the top spots are going to flatten out as it peaks.

Winds look good tomorrow (of course we don’t have surf so they don’t need to mess with us)…look for light-offshore for most beaches and some slightly stronger offshore gusts at the usual wind-prone passes and canyons. Winds stay light for the afternoon…just coming onshore around 5-10 knots later in the day.



So for tomorrow…I would probably stay in bed. It will be butt-cold again tomorrow morning and the water temps have dropped down into the upper 50’s in some areas…to top it off the weak swell mix will be burgered out with the peaking tide…so there won’t even be much to paddle for that could help keep you warm. Personally I am going to take it easy in the morning…maybe go on donut patrol…wait for the air to warm up and the tide to drop. Hopefully the tide will drain enough to set up a few longboard peaks before the wind starts to tweak it too much.

Here are the tides…

01:19AM LDT 1.1 L
07:31AM LDT 5.2 H
02:07PM LDT 0.9 L
07:56PM LDT 4.2 H

Wednesday’s Waves – I like surfing, let’s do some more

Wednesday is going to be another surf day...but you may have to switch up spots if you want to find more consistent surf.

On a side note I finally got in the water for a fun little session (I was battling a case of the bird-flu for a couple of days and I had to miss out on the beginning of the SW’er)...it wasn’t huge, or that consistent, and the cold water made me die a little inside, but it felt good to actually go somewhere on a wave and throw down a little turn here and there. I saw my friend the rapist-dolphin again...who swam in about 5 feet from me so it looks like I am starting 2009 off right with some more dolphin-love...anyways enough about me.

We are going to see our fun SW’er (190-210) fade out a bit more on Wednesday but a new pulse of WNW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy above 290). The new swell is forecast to arrive throughout the day and show strongest by the afternoon...it looks like the peak periods are going to be around 12-13 seconds so it won’t be super energetic but it will have more push than shorter-period windswell. Look for the swell to look a lot like this...but with a touch less S-SW energy.



Wave heights at the average spots will be around waist-chest high on Wednesday...there will still be enough swell combo out there to get a few peaks at the spots without great NW exposure but you are definitely going to want to check the winter spots if you are looking for size and consistency. The top spots, mostly in Ventura , the South Bay, and San Diego, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range throughout the lower tide in the morning and should start to see some head high sets by the afternoon/evening. (A mix of this WNW swell is expected to hold through most of the week.)

Winds and weather will be a lot like Tuesday, “hace frio” in the morning with light offshore to light/variable morning winds, and then light onshore around 10-12 knots out of the WNW by the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and a bit on the cool side.

I don’t think that there will be enough swell to drive very far tomorrow but if you live on the border of some of the better exposed regions I would at least give them a check. The low tide in the morning is a bit of a bummer but if you give it a couple of hours the air will warm up and the shape should improve. I think the SD and V-town winter standouts could be pretty fun by late in the afternoon, particularly if the winds lay down a bit after lunch.

Random long-range note...the WNW’er is going to stick around most of the week and should actually get a little bigger over the weekend. If that isn’t good enough it looks like we may see some colder Santa Ana flow setting up for Saturday and Sunday as well.

Here are the tides

05:07AM LST 5.9 H
12:54PM LST -0.7 L
07:24PM LST 3.3 H
11:37PM LST 2.2 L

Friday's Surf - Clean and Rideable but a little soft

Friday is looking surfable but like the last couple of days it will be on the soft side with the tide in the morning.

We are going to have a mix of mostly S-SW energy (180-205) from a couple of smaller overlapping swells. There will only be some small background swell out of the WNW but overall it will be smaller than what we have seen over the last couple of days.


a little bleak out there right now...

Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range for spots that can handle the high tide in the morning (the ones that can't are going to be pretty small). The better S facing breaks and decent combo spots will be closer to waist high+ with sets...and the top S facing breaks and top combo spots through OC and San Diego will have a few chest-chest high+ sets. Expect to be waiting a while between the bigger waves though.

Winds are forecast to be similar to Thursday...mostly light to moderately offshore through the morning along with cold crisp morning air temps. NW winds come onshore around 10-14 knots through the afternoon.

Like I said above the conditions, and the fact that it won't be totally flat, keeps it in the surfable range tomorrow...it won't be super exciting but it will be better than say being tied to a computer and forced to work on TPS reports or something. I would plan on staying local, pick a spot that can handle the tide, and if you can aim for midmorning so that there will be a little less water and you don't freeze your nads off in the dawn patrol.



Here are the tides

05:14AM LST 4.2' High
11:06AM LST 2.4' Low
04:18PM LST 3.9' High
11:00PM LST 0.9' Low