Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 12/14/2009

Forecast Overview

Local windswell will drop away as the clouds and leftovers of the weekend’s storm finally move out of the area on Tuesday. A couple of fun-sized WNW pulses push in through the week, one arriving on Tuesday and another on Thursday…both of which will keep the WNW facing breaks in some fun-rideable surf. Warmer temps, and mostly clean conditions will be on tap for most of the week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
We will see a mix of backing off WNW-NW windswell, some new medium-period WNW swell (280-300), and some trace SW energy. Most WNW facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. Standout NW facing spots, particularly the breaks that like the medium-short swell periods, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger sets mixing in on the good tides. San Diego South County standouts continue to look larger than other areas thanks to more exposure to the NW energy. Winds/Weather: Mostly light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning, clean conditions for most areas, with a few clouds still lingering at times. NW winds around 10-12 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Wednesday
Look for similar, if not a touch smaller sizes on Wednesday. We will have a mix of holding WNW energy (280-300), fading leftover windswell, and some slightly bigger SW swell (190-215). Most exposed spots will continue to run around waist high with some chest high sets. Standout NW facing breaks will have some shoulder high waves on the best sets. A new pulse of WNW swell (285-300) starts to move into exposed areas by midday and will add some more size to the Northern Counties (Santa Barbara and Ventura) by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light-offshore for the morning. Afternoon NW winds hold around 10-12 knots.



Thursday
New WNW swell (285-300 again with most of the energy coming in 290+) will peak, as it mixes with background SW energy (190-215) and some local NW windswell. Most WNW-facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range but I do expect a few less consistent sets hitting shoulder high and maybe a little bigger at times. The standout NW facing breaks, again the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego NW standouts, will have consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high and a bit overhead at times. The top breaks of Southern San Diego, will be more consistently shoulder-overhead on sets with a few bigger waves hitting on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions will be on tap for the morning, mostly light/variable to light/offshore for the morning. WNW winds around 8-10 knots holds through the afternoon.



Friday
The WNW-NW swell (now 290-300) will continue to hold some ok size into the morning but may back off a bit more by the afternoon. We can still expect a lot of waist-chest high+ surf at the better WNW facing breaks. NW standout spots will be more in the chest-shoulder occasionally head high range but with a few bigger sets as you move down into Southern San Diego. Winds/Weather: Forecasts are calling for another day of light morning winds and sunny skies. Should be nice surfing weather through the morning and only moderate onshore NW winds through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC continues to show some strong storm activity for both the short and long-range portions of the forecast. Currently we have a decent-sized, but not all that intense. Low pressure hanging just on the W-WNW side of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm is managing to set up some fetch for Socal, but most of the “good” energy is still a little too far to the north to send a good shot of swell our direction. As it stands we can expect a moderate/small WNW pulse (280-300) that hits Tuesday and fades Wednesday. A second following storm, that you can see the short-range forecast charts...





…will be sending in a slightly stronger, and better positioned, WNW swell (280-300 but with more energy below 290-degrees), that will arrive in the northerly counties late on Wednesday but really peak on Thursday before backing down slightly on Friday.

Long-range charts are showing more activity pushing in from the NW Pacific, and setting up shop N-NNE of the Hawaiian Islands in about 5-6 days. If this can live up to forecasts we would be looking at another long-period WNW swell heading our way for around the 22-23rd. More details on this one as we get closer.

South Pacific
The SPAC is slightly more active than it has been the last couple of weeks. Looks like a fast moving front has spun off Antarctica and has set up some fetch in a little better position than the last few pulses of energy have managed to reach.



We can expect the last of the background SW energy to arrive on Wednesday Dec 16th with some knee-waist high waves at the SW facing breaks…and then a slightly larger waist-chest high S-SSW swell (180-200) moving in on the 20-22nd.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for the weekend – more surf...but watch the tide

Saturday and Sunday will both be surf days...but we are going to have to watch the morning high tide.

We are going to see a mix of WNW energy (280-300) that will actually peak tonight and will hold into Saturday before slowly backing off on Sunday. At the same time we are going to have some background SW swell running through Saturday and then a slightly stronger pulse of SW energy arriving on Sunday and holding into Monday.

Overall it looks like the winter spots on Saturday are going to be the biggest...but the combo spots should have a few fun waves as well. On average the WNW facing spots and the combo breaks will have surf in the waist-chest high range with a few bigger sets sneaking through on the lower tides.

Standout breaks, again in San Diego and Ventura (and a couple of other areas), will have more consistent surf in the shoulder-head high range on the sets and some slightly bigger sets at the best spots on the lower tides.

Winds look good for both days...mostly light and variable through the early morning and then light onshore for the midday and moderately onshore (10-14 knots) by the afternoons.

If you are looking for bigger more consistent surf you are going to have to stick to the winter areas...if you are trying squeeze a lot out of the combo spots you are going to be a bit disappointed...it will be inconsistent and tide sensitive, so there will be some long waits between waves. I think that all types of breaks will be pretty similar over the weekend but if you have a spot that really pulls in swell that is going to be the best call.

Make sure to plan around the high tide...it is going to pretty swampy through the dawn patrols...make sure the spot you pick is working on the higher tide before spending a lot of time driving.

Here are the tides...have a good weekend!

Saturday
12:47AM LST 2.1 L
06:41AM LST 5.1 H
01:57PM LST -0.5 L
08:16PM LST 3.6 H

Sunday
01:20AM LST 1.8 L
07:15AM LST 5.3 H
02:21PM LST -0.6 L
08:33PM LST 3.8 H

Wednesday’s Waves – Last day before the rain

Wednesday will be another surf day.

We are going to see the mix of WNW energy (280-300 with most of the energy around 290-300) continuing to push through...not much else out there...unfortunately for the spots that like a little combo. The WNW’er will be losing some steam though...the periods are dropping and the wave heights are backing off.

There will still be plenty of waves in the chest-shoulder high range at the average winter breaks. Standouts will be in the shoulder-head high range, maybe even a few overhead sets down in San Diego County.

Weather will be decent through the morning. Mostly light and variable to light-offshore winds through the morning and then variable onshore to slight southerly flow by later in the afternoon. Look for increasing clouds through the day as well. Looks like rain starts to move in late Wednesday night and will continue on and off through the end of the week.

Look at the NOAA graphical forecast for Thursday morning...looks nice and sucky...well at least there will be more snow. (of course now that I have mentioned the rain it probably won’t actually arrive until next week...)



If your beach doesn’t have good NW exposure it isn’t going to be all that great tomorrow...so you are definitely going to want to stick with the winter top spots if you are looking for bigger wave heights. San Diego, Ventura, and parts of the South Bay will continue to have the largest waves...but there will be some playful sizes at a few of the better NW facing breaks in OC, North LA, and Southern Santa Barbara as well. I guess where I am going with that is...if you are looking for consistent surf try and stick to a break that can pull in swell from 285-290-degrees plus. I still think that the points/reefs are going to be the best call...the beach breaks are still pretty lined up.

Here are the tides

05:36AM LST 5.0 H
01:23PM LST -0.2 L
08:07PM LST 3.2 H

Monday’s Surf – More WNW swell

Monday will be another surf day…and hopefully the crowd will be a bit smaller (even though a lot of people have the day off).

The WNW swell, which was a bit of a disappointment but did fill in OK on Sunday, will continue to run into Monday. In fact there will be more energy from some trailing elements that followed the first part of the storm…so the size will remain about the same as Sunday but the direction should be a touch more westerly and the swell periods will be a bit shorter as well (probably averaging around 13-15 seconds). Check out the CDIP from Sunday evening…Monday’s energy is going to be about the same…just slightly more west in it.



Most W facing spots will continue to see the chest-shoulder high surf. Standout W facing breaks, the best winter spots in Ventura and San Diego, will have more consistent shoulder-head high sets with some overhead waves sneaking through at times.

Weather will be OK…still nice for most areas but some fog starting to move in at some spots. Look for light/variable winds through the morning and WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon. Air temps are going to start to back down too.

If you are looking for size I would stick to those top winter areas…looks like the regions that can be a bit marginal, like North LA and most of OC, are going to continue to miss out on a lot of the energy. (though there may be a couple of nuggets in those areas at the top winter breaks). It is sort of an up in the air call if you should drive around looking for surf…the swell isn’t all that, but it is better than what we have had, and it is a holiday for a lot of people…I guess you are just going to have to make the driving call based on how much time you have to burn. I would try and get on it in the morning before the winds start to bump it up through the afternoon.

Here are the tides…

03:48AM LST 4.7 H
11:51AM LST 0.6 L
06:38PM LST 2.8 H
09:56PM LST 2.5 L

Waves for Friday – new WNW-NW swell

Friday will be a surf day...it will start off a bit slow for the morning but it will be pretty fun by lunchtime and into the afternoon.

Thursday wasn’t as good as I was hoping...the first WNW pulse dropped out pretty fast (actually it was still in the water but it got really steep...290+...really around 295+...on the swell direction which, since the swell period was a bit short really limited the spots that could pull it in). Anyway I took a look at it for a while during lunch and while there were a bunch of guys out it wasn’t appealing enough to motivate me. Check out the CDIP model from this afternoon...you can see how the swell shadow kinda screwed us today. Well except for San Diego, which has better winter exposure.



Friday the new WNW’er (280-300 with the main push of energy around 290-300) will arrive throughout the day...show strongest in the afternoon and then peak overnight in Saturday.

Average spots will start off slow...around knee-waist high...and soft thanks to the building tide.

Standout breaks, mostly those in San Diego, will be bigger in the morning...more around waist-chest high+ on inconsistent sets but burgery with the higher tide.

By the afternoon the average WNW spots should be more consistently around chest-shoulder high. The top spots will be around shoulder-head high with some bigger sets as the sun sets.

Winds will be light-variable to light-offshore in the morning. Look for NW winds around 10-12 knots for mid-afternoon with the possibility of a little sundown cleanup as things shift back around at the end of the day.

Really I would plan to take it easy in the morning and shoot for a midday session if you can...if not, well expect things to be on the softer side during the dawn patrol. San Diego and Southern Ventura will be the biggest on the new swell mix but there should be playful waves at all of the exposed spots as the tide drops. Also some of the more northern spots in SoCal will see that new swell a few hours earlier than spots further south...so if you are in the Ventura/SB keep an eye on the ocean around lunch...there should be some bigger sets coming through.

Here are the tides

12:36AM LST 2.1 L
06:50AM LST 6.7 H
02:24PM LST -1.7 L
08:49PM LST 3.7 H

Thanks for all the responses to the “Bootie Stank” post this morning...you guys are freaking funny (and have a bunch of good tips!)

Wednesday’s Waves – I like surfing, let’s do some more

Wednesday is going to be another surf day...but you may have to switch up spots if you want to find more consistent surf.

On a side note I finally got in the water for a fun little session (I was battling a case of the bird-flu for a couple of days and I had to miss out on the beginning of the SW’er)...it wasn’t huge, or that consistent, and the cold water made me die a little inside, but it felt good to actually go somewhere on a wave and throw down a little turn here and there. I saw my friend the rapist-dolphin again...who swam in about 5 feet from me so it looks like I am starting 2009 off right with some more dolphin-love...anyways enough about me.

We are going to see our fun SW’er (190-210) fade out a bit more on Wednesday but a new pulse of WNW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy above 290). The new swell is forecast to arrive throughout the day and show strongest by the afternoon...it looks like the peak periods are going to be around 12-13 seconds so it won’t be super energetic but it will have more push than shorter-period windswell. Look for the swell to look a lot like this...but with a touch less S-SW energy.



Wave heights at the average spots will be around waist-chest high on Wednesday...there will still be enough swell combo out there to get a few peaks at the spots without great NW exposure but you are definitely going to want to check the winter spots if you are looking for size and consistency. The top spots, mostly in Ventura , the South Bay, and San Diego, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range throughout the lower tide in the morning and should start to see some head high sets by the afternoon/evening. (A mix of this WNW swell is expected to hold through most of the week.)

Winds and weather will be a lot like Tuesday, “hace frio” in the morning with light offshore to light/variable morning winds, and then light onshore around 10-12 knots out of the WNW by the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and a bit on the cool side.

I don’t think that there will be enough swell to drive very far tomorrow but if you live on the border of some of the better exposed regions I would at least give them a check. The low tide in the morning is a bit of a bummer but if you give it a couple of hours the air will warm up and the shape should improve. I think the SD and V-town winter standouts could be pretty fun by late in the afternoon, particularly if the winds lay down a bit after lunch.

Random long-range note...the WNW’er is going to stick around most of the week and should actually get a little bigger over the weekend. If that isn’t good enough it looks like we may see some colder Santa Ana flow setting up for Saturday and Sunday as well.

Here are the tides

05:07AM LST 5.9 H
12:54PM LST -0.7 L
07:24PM LST 3.3 H
11:37PM LST 2.2 L

Waves for the weekend - Get Some!

It is going to be a good surf weekend...seriously if there weren't some awesome football games I might consider staying at the beach all day both days. (Actually that is what they invented TIVO for! Nevermind I will be at the beach all weekend).

There is going to be plenty of surf this weekend...we have the WNW'er that peaked on Friday dropping off on Saturday but still sending in plenty of waves as it mixes with some overlapping S-SW swells. Most spots will continue to see waist-shoulder high surf tomorrow with the top winter breaks and combo spots seeing some head high+ sets (Much less consistent than Friday's surf though).

Sunday (and Monday) we have another solid pulse of WNW swell (280-300) and some stronger S-SSW swell (180-190) moving in and peaking by midday, then holding through the afternoon and into early Monday. At this point it looks like plenty of exposed spots will be running chest-head high. Standout NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego, as well as a few of the better WNW/S facing combo spots will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets going a foot or two overhead at times.

Check out the CDIP forecast...you can see the smaller swell on Saturday and then back up as the new swells fill in Sunday/Monday. (Note that those days the forecast model looks very similar to what we had on Friday).



Winds look good as well...light and variable to light offshore for most areas on Saturday...even moderately offshore for the North LA/Ventura regions. Light onshore winds develop through the afternoon.

Sunday the winds shift a little more N but stay about 10 knots through the morning. NW winds around 10 knots build in through the afternoon.

Really with this combination of swells is going to put fun waves almost everywhere except for the most extremely shadowed locations. Biggest surf will definitely be around San Diego, with Ventura and the South Bay coming in close seconds. Everywhere else will be a touch smaller but there will be that S swell out there crossing things up so shape should be pretty good. I think the beach breaks are going to have the best shape (which is nice since we can spread out and try and get a peak to ourselves...and in my case a peak to myself and about 20 of my dolphin friends...seriously I can't get away from those guys, I think I may start some sort of dolphin training school or just get a job at sea-world..WTF)...but the points and reefs, particular the spots that have decent exposure to the WNW swell will be very fun too. Santa Barbara will have waves but expect the surf to be a bit smaller thanks to swell shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands (for the S swell). Anyway hope you get some this weekend...remember to share!


damn you Flipper!

Here are the tides...

Saturday
03:57AM LST 4.4 H
10:29AM LST 2.1 L
03:29PM LST 3.3 H
09:42PM LST 1.2 L

Sunday
04:28AM LST 4.9 H
11:27AM LST 1.3 L
04:56PM LST 3.3 H
10:27PM LST 1.4 L

Wednesday’s Waves – Getting funky now

So I was just going over the WX charts for tomorrow and even though the storm is moving over Southern California it does look like we might have a couple of surf pockets. I think it will be a far cry from a surf day but if you have the day off, don’t mind rain or potentially poop filled water, then you might get a chance to snag a couple of waves.

We are going to have a mix of medium-short period W-WNW storm swell, some slightly longer-period NW energy, and some building S swell (180-190). On a side note I got out and caught a couple of waves at the local beach break (on Tuesday afternoon) and the S swell was doing most of the work…the tide was low, and there was a little west crossing it up, but a few of the sets were legit shoulder high+ on the face. There was no real point to that story except to say that the S swell was doing ok at sending in some inconsistent sets. Hopefully it will just get bigger as it combos up with the W energy.



On Wednesday the average spots will be in the waist-chest high+ range. The standout S facing breaks, standout WNW facing spots, and the good combo breaks will be in the shoulder-head high range on sets. Shape will be funky for most areas but winds should be swirling out of the S-SE so there will be some spots that will have semi-rideable waves.

These spots should not be hard to find…just grab a map and a pencil. Align the pencil so that the tip is pointing to the NW…that is the direction the wind is going to be blowing. Hold the pencil over the coastline and if the pencil is perpendicular to a beach then there is a good chance it will be clean(er) than other spots. That is my poor man’s MacGyver forecast tip of the day.

Winds tomorrow are going to be the funky part…basically they are going to be all over the place as the storm front moves over the area and starts to move inland. If the front hasn’t arrived or is just starting to, then winds will be S-SE…if it has passed your area then you are likely to get the W-NW clearing winds that follow a front. Want to see what I mean about “all over the place”…this is the COAMPS forecast for Wednesday morning…



According to this model SB has some WNW winds, but light. North LA, the South Bay, and North OC see N winds. And San Diego gets a mix of S winds for North SD and WNW winds for the South SD area. Freaking weird.

What this really means is…keep in mind that there may be some surf tomorrow in almost any area. Check the cams, call the lifeguard reports, and look out the window. If the swell holds, the tide drops, and the winds cooperate we might get a few waves before the holiday.

Here are the tides…good luck!

01:11AM LST 2.1 L
07:21AM LST 6.0 H
02:47PM LST -0.5 L
09:07PM LST 3.6 H

Tuesday’s Surf – More WNW swell fun

Tuesday will be another good surf day. (Looks like we are going to have a lot of these over the next several days)

We have a new WNW swell currently filling in this afternoon and it looks like it will peak over night into Tuesday. This new WNW’er is a little better aimed but about the same size as the swell over the weekend.

We can expect surf in the waist-shoulder high range at most spots while the standout breaks, again mostly in San Diego and Ventura, see shoulder-overhead sets on the better parts of the tide swing. With the low tide coming through early in the morning it looks like the dawn patrol could be pretty fun.

Winds look good for Tuesday as well…expect light and variable to light-offshore conditions in the morning with some light NW winds (around 10-15 knots) developing in the afternoon.

While a lot of breaks are going to be picking up energy from this swell I really think that the winter points and reefs are going to be the best call. This is mostly because we don’t have much to break up this swell…and the quickly shifting tide has a tendency to close out the shape on the extreme low-tide…and then turn everything to shorebreak on the high-tide. To get the most out of this swell I would recommend finding a NW facing point/reef that isn’t too tide sensitive. A really good sandbar might be a good back-up if you don’t have anything else close by.

Further out it looks like another pretty good sized storm is brewing in the NPAC…we will have another WNW swell lining up for the 14th and probably another one on the 16th…more details on these in upcoming posts.