Friday, December 5, 2008

Waves for the weekend - Get Some!

It is going to be a good surf weekend...seriously if there weren't some awesome football games I might consider staying at the beach all day both days. (Actually that is what they invented TIVO for! Nevermind I will be at the beach all weekend).

There is going to be plenty of surf this weekend...we have the WNW'er that peaked on Friday dropping off on Saturday but still sending in plenty of waves as it mixes with some overlapping S-SW swells. Most spots will continue to see waist-shoulder high surf tomorrow with the top winter breaks and combo spots seeing some head high+ sets (Much less consistent than Friday's surf though).

Sunday (and Monday) we have another solid pulse of WNW swell (280-300) and some stronger S-SSW swell (180-190) moving in and peaking by midday, then holding through the afternoon and into early Monday. At this point it looks like plenty of exposed spots will be running chest-head high. Standout NW facing spots, mostly in San Diego, as well as a few of the better WNW/S facing combo spots will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets going a foot or two overhead at times.

Check out the CDIP can see the smaller swell on Saturday and then back up as the new swells fill in Sunday/Monday. (Note that those days the forecast model looks very similar to what we had on Friday).

Winds look good as well...light and variable to light offshore for most areas on Saturday...even moderately offshore for the North LA/Ventura regions. Light onshore winds develop through the afternoon.

Sunday the winds shift a little more N but stay about 10 knots through the morning. NW winds around 10 knots build in through the afternoon.

Really with this combination of swells is going to put fun waves almost everywhere except for the most extremely shadowed locations. Biggest surf will definitely be around San Diego, with Ventura and the South Bay coming in close seconds. Everywhere else will be a touch smaller but there will be that S swell out there crossing things up so shape should be pretty good. I think the beach breaks are going to have the best shape (which is nice since we can spread out and try and get a peak to ourselves...and in my case a peak to myself and about 20 of my dolphin friends...seriously I can't get away from those guys, I think I may start some sort of dolphin training school or just get a job at sea-world..WTF)...but the points and reefs, particular the spots that have decent exposure to the WNW swell will be very fun too. Santa Barbara will have waves but expect the surf to be a bit smaller thanks to swell shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands (for the S swell). Anyway hope you get some this weekend...remember to share!

damn you Flipper!

Here are the tides...

03:57AM LST 4.4 H
10:29AM LST 2.1 L
03:29PM LST 3.3 H
09:42PM LST 1.2 L

04:28AM LST 4.9 H
11:27AM LST 1.3 L
04:56PM LST 3.3 H
10:27PM LST 1.4 L


Anonymous said...

I know it's your job but please lay off sending the Los Angeles hordes to San Diego. Lately it's been ridiculously swamped with non natives. Be kind!

kaser_one said...

anon- don't shoot the messenger. relish in the days that the internet is saying flat and its actually head hi, empty, and fun. yes, it happens.

Adam Wright said...

Anon...I appreciate the feedback. I totally know where you are coming from but I do think you are being a little sensitive. Besides SD I also call out a couple of other regions, like Ventura and the South Bay in that forecast. I don't even say they will have the best surf...only they will be the biggest. Biggest doesn't always equal the most fun.

If anything I was trying to emphasize that there will be fun surf everywhere over the weekend and that spending too much time on the road, like driving to SD, isn't the best call (or at least the best use of your time).

Yong Jung Shin said...

I think it might be good to drive around while the gases are cheap. Unless you're one of the affected lol.

Hugh said...

keep up the good work, adam. i, for one, heavily rely on your data. i don't have the skills or time to do this stuff myself, so thanks again for making my life easier.

Anonymous said...

"lay off sending the Los Angeles hordes to San Diego"

Dude, CDIP has been around for years - anyone with a computer can see what is happening.

Besides, anyone surfing more than 1 year quickly learns the SoCal lore: Vland, SBay & SD break in the winter (with SB the call on mondo swells), while NLA & OC break in the summer.

It's not like it's a mystery - it's only been common knowledge since at least the 1950s. Check out the crowd in some photos of Rincon in the early 60s.

travis13 said...

Saw a ton of dolphins today. I was ducking a set and could hear them squeaking, something I've never heard before. My friend called me a liar when I told him. Then I'm just sitting there minding my own business when a huge one jumps completely out of the water from a about 10 feet away and lands right next to me, about a board width close. I thought it was going to land on me. I yelped.

travis13 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

O'Side was waist with a painfully rare chest high set in ultra clean conditions. Crowd was HUGE!

Maybe we'll get some south tomorrow to help a bit; really hard for anything west or north to really get in here.

As for the whiner about forecasts . . . SHUT UP!

Anonymous said...

Adam - Thank you so much for your forcasts. Excellent work and much appreciated. It helps me decide when to dive or surf. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

My recollection is that I've been referring to CDIP for at least 15 years. I was surfing El Porto a lot back then, and I recall a computer guy I knew who insisted that the winter swells came in between Pt Dume and the SB Channel Isl.

Finally, he showed me the CDIP model and it was like a light bulb finally turned on. I haven't stopped checking that stupid buoy 5 times/day since that fateful day. Talk about addiction. Here's the CDIP details (from their website) for anyone who is interested:
CDIP has been making offshore directional wave measurements in Southern California since November 1992. Initially, these measurements were made with an array of pressure sensors attached to Harvest Platform, west of Point Conception. Because of the distance between the pressure sensors, the array was only used to predict the directional spectrum of the wave field for periods of 8 seconds and longer. In March 1998, the Harvest Platform array was damaged by a service vessel and a Datawell Directional Waverider Buoy was deployed near the Platform as a replacement.