Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/29/2010

Forecast Overview

The nasty winds will finally start to back off tonight and it looks like they are going to stay light as we move into the weekend. Shape and conditions will improve as we head into the weekend, which is nice because it is just in time for more SW swell to move in from the Southern Hemi.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (breaking the wind)
Conditions start to improve on Friday…not totally clean up…but definitely better than what we had on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). Most spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range, while the better NW and SW facing breaks see some less consistent bigger sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will see stacked up, lumpy overhead+ windswell. The best SW facing breaks will be head high+ on the inconsistent sets. I don’t expect the greatest shape since there is so much short-period energy sloshing around, but if you have a spot that can groom out some of that energy, or it just generally breaks better on windswells, then those areas will probably be the best call. Winds/Weather: Look for light winds in the morning…there may be a little onshore texture here and there…but overall winds will be below 5 knots. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds to build in later in the day…eventually pushing up into the 10-15 knot range.



Saturday – (Fading windswell but a touch more Southern Hemi)
The surf continues to improve on Saturday as the local winds even out a bit more and the even though the windswell backs off, it grooms out some of the junk and manages to hold onto some of the more “surfable” parts of the swell. The SSW-SW swell (190-220) continues to hold…and even gets a little bit more reinforcing energy that will help to keep the summer spots in fun-size surf. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. There may be some pockets of fog early…but it should burn off by midday.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off. Look for the average spots to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the good combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push. Winds/Weather: A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.



Monday – (more combo love)
The windswell continues to back off on Monday…but another pulse of SSW-SW swell moves in and mixes with the Southern Hemi blend (180-210) that will still be hanging around from the weekend. Expect the WNW-NW facing spots to lose more size…holding in the waist high range with a few rare bigger sets. The SW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the standout SW facing breaks, mostly in South OC, seeing some inconsistent head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of texture around the wind-prone areas. The afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Not much showing in the NPAC in the latest forecast run…we will see the strong wind gradient (you know…the one that is trashing the surf here on Thursday) start to shift around and weaken as high-pressure starts to develop over the region.



This increasing high-pressure is actually stretching across to Hawaii, with another fairly strong ridge developing over the western half of the North Pacific. Check it out…



This my friends, is a pretty typical spring/early summer pressure pattern for the North Pacific…and once those two ridges of pressure get entrenched it is pretty difficult to push them out of the way. You guys might hear me refer to this sort of set-up as a “double-barrel” high-pressure…and yes it is a bad thing for helping make surf.

At this point, with these highs moving into place I am not expecting any sort of significant storm to form in our swell window over the next week or so. There may be an increase in local windswell if the eastern high moves a little further off the coast…but for the most part the NPAC is looking pretty boring.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



SSW-SW (190-220) has been arriving over the last couple of days but it has mostly been swallowed up by this stupid onshore wind. Fortunately this swell has some legs and the main portion of the energy is going to arrive in a couple of overlapping pulses that peak on Friday, hold into early Saturday, and then slowly back down Sunday/Monday. Like I said in the short-range portion of the forecast… this one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and a few overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

That nice looking storm that I was watching waaaaay out in the charts in my last long-range forecast actually managed to pull together over the last few days (and I didn’t even have to bribe it with tootsie pops like I do with my 5-year old). Check it out on the Jason-1 satellite…(a big thanks to Mark Sponsler, who lets me poach his www.Stormsurf.com charts…make sure to visit his site when you get a chance).



Like I mentioned before this storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. The winds aren’t super strong…WINDsat had some 35-45 knots in core…but it looks like the proximity and duration of the storm (as well as the movement) will help overcome its lack of intensity.

At this point I am looking for new S-SSW swell (180-200) to move in late on May 4th…but then peak on May 5-6th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/22/2010

Forecast Overview

Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.

Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.



The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.



If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…



This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Waves for the weekend – New WNW swell lining up for Sunday/Monday

We are going to have a surf weekend. New WNW-NW swell will be arriving over the next couple of days and winds and weather are expected to really clean up as well. About the only issue will be water-quality…thanks to the rain that pushed through earlier in the week…but by the time the swell starts to hit we will be a couple of days past the heaviest rains so hopefully there won’t be that much poo.

Swellwise we are going to see a couple of new swells from the North Pacific and a little bit of background SSW energy (so little that it will mostly get lost in the bigger NPAC swells). The first swell won’t really be that big…and it is coming in from a steeper angle which limits what areas can pick it up.

The first NW’er (290-300+) arrives late Friday night and peaks through the day on Saturday. On Saturday most spots will be in the waist high+ range. Standout NW facing spots in San Diego and Ventura will pick up more energy and will be in the chest-shoulder high range with a couple of shoulder high+ sets on the lower tides.

Sunday we will get a much stronger and slightly more westerly WNW swell (285-300+). This one will arrive with longer swell periods (it will start filling in with 20+ second periods but the peak of the swell will still be around 16-17 seconds and will arrive later Sunday afternoon and into Monday). Since this swell is bigger and coming in from a better angle most exposed spots will see more size. Look for average W facing breaks to build into the chest-shoulder high+ range by Sunday afternoon. Standout NW facing spots, particularly in San Diego (as well as Ventura and the South Bay), will have surf in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet overhead on the lower tides.

Check out the CDIP forecast model (this is the weird sideways one).



If you look a little closer at the Dec 1st section of the model…you can see how that new WNW’er will wrap into each area. (Since the map is set for Dec 1st at 1am it actually means Sunday night…not Monday night).



Even with the new energy and the longer periods the larger surf from this swell is still going to really be focused in select areas. There will be waves at most exposed spots but if you are looking for larger waves try and aim for spots in the circled areas.

Wind and weather are looking better for the weekend (and Monday) as well. Saturday may have some morning fog but this burns off and we see sunny skies and mild weather through the rest of the weekend. Winds will be light and variable to light offshore through the mornings and NW winds will hold around 10-knots for the afternoons.

It really looks like Sunday afternoon and Monday will be the peak of the new swell that hits over the weekend (too bad it couldn’t have hit more on our Vacation)…so if you are looking for larger surf you are going to want to try and surf during that time frame. There will be plenty of playful sized surf for the rest of the weekend…nothing spectacular but enough that we can have some fun, especially as the weather starts to improve. That new WNW’er that will hit on Sunday does look good enough to do some driving if you need overhead waves…I wouldn’t spend hours on the road or anything but it will be worth heading down the road a little further to find a spot with good NW exposure.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend! (hope you aren't forced into too much shopping)

Saturday
02:34AM LST 2.6 L
08:48AM LST 5.7 H
04:32PM LST -0.3 L
11:11PM LST 3.4 H

Sunday
03:05AM LST 2.7 L
09:20AM LST 5.5 H
05:11PM LST -0.1 L

Friday's Surf - A good reason to be late to work

Friday will be a surf day.

Again it won't be "all-time" or anything but Friday's surf is looking pretty fun for combo spots and breaks with good SW swell exposure.

Surfwise we will have a mix of fading WNW windswell and a slowly building SW swell. Most spots will hold around waist-chest high. Standout SW facing spots and the good combo breaks will see shoulder high+ sets on the morning tide push.

Winds will start off light and variable for most areas during the morning before turning onshore out of the W around 10-15 knots through the afternoon.

Try not to hit it too early...there is a negative low tide (-1.4 foot low) that drains out everything about 6:20am. That doesn't leave a lot of water for most spots...a few might be breaking but expect to see a lot of sand and rock...I can almost hear the ankles snapping right now.

Mid-morning looks like it will have the best shape...we actually have the combo of wind/tides working for us rather than against us. We will have the tide-push, light winds, and a building swell mix.

Oh and to top it off...water temps feel like the are warming up in at least few areas...cross your fingers that they continue to heat up (I would like to shed my wetsuit at somepoint this summer!)

I think a lot of spots will have some playful waves tomorrow morning. There will be plenty of swell in the water...both SW and WNW...so most spots will have at least a few waves showing. The biggest, and likely the most consistent, surf will be at the combo spots in San Diego and South Orange County. The NW facing breaks will be a bit on the mushy side since they are pulling in predominately windswell. Your best bet will be to start early (but not too early...have some coffee or something)...try and time it to take advantage of both the tide push and the light winds.