Monday’s Surf – better than the weekend

Monday looks pretty surfable.

I know that a few spots had some playful waves this weekend but overall the wind didn’t give us that much of a break. (well I guess that is sort of a relative…10-15 knots is a hell of a lot better than gale force winds that we had at times last week.) Fortunately on Monday it looks like the winds are going to back down a bit further and even go a little offshore in the early morning…then staying a little lighter throughout the day.

In the water we are going to have a mix of steady WNW-NW windswell, and some overlapping SSW-SW swells (190-220). None of the swells will be all that big…and the NW windswell is pretty steeply angled so there won’t be a ton of spots that will be able to pick it up. Generally we are going to have rideable but not that exciting surf.



Most spots are going to average around waist high on Monday…spots with a little better exposure to either the SW or the NW will have some inconsistent chest high sets. The standout combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets mixing It up at times.

Winds, like I said above, look a bit better. The eddy is forecast to lighten up and reposition further south, which will let the land-breeze take over a little more through the morning. Look for light and variable winds through the morning, with a few spots (the ones near the passes and canyons) will see some light offshore flow for the first couple of hours of daylight. Look for W winds around 10-12 knots to move in through the afternoon.



Again…nothing to get super excited about…just some minor pulses of SSW-SW swell jumbled together with some weak/fading NW windswell. I would probably stick to your small wave gear, longboards, fishy shapes, thinks like that…they will just let you have a little more fun in the weaker surf.

Here are the tides…

05/03/2010 Monday
12:07AM LDT 4.8 H
08:05AM LDT 0.0 L
03:21PM LDT 3.1 H
06:56PM LDT 2.8 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/22/2010

Forecast Overview

Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.

Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.



The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.



If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…



This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Swell Alert/Update – New W-WNW swell starting to fill in

I am working on the forecast update for the weekend but I thought I would throw out a little teaser.

Most spots were coming up this morning but the main part of the new W-WNW swell (270-300) hadn’t really started to arrive. That is starting to change…right now the “outer nearshore buoys” (the ones that are positioned in the more open waters around Point Conception and outside of our nearshore islands) are starting to pop. Check out the Lajollasurf.org Buoy Summary list…there are a lot of blue arrows pointing east (the way the swell is going).



And here is the Harvest Buoy…it is running about 10-feet at a dominant swell-period of 17-seconds. In fact about 80% of the energy showing on the buoy is coming in from the W-WNW with swell periods of 10-12 seconds or longer.



Here is the old school CDIP chart...check out the shift in the scale.



The wind isn’t perfect, but it isn’t blowing that hard either…and it is looking like there is a good chance that it will clean-up or even glass off at spots with a little protection. With the manageable winds, building swell, and ok tides I think that we might be able to have a little Friday-funtime in the right spots.



If you guys are still at work I would seriously consider faking some sort of an emergency, or a bad case of the “number 3’s”…you know…“sorry boss that chipotle burrito is going right through me I think I need to go uh…home…yeah home”. I hope you have your gear in your car.

One more thing…I just want to give a shout out to Joe over at Lajollasurf.org for providing the sweet buoy interface. That thing has been a go-to for me pretty much since the interweb was invented, and it plays a major role in helping me with these forecasts. He has had that thing up and running for over a decade now and lets everyone use it for free…so incredibly cool…anyway thanks Joe! This would be a lot harder without your efforts. ~ Adam (Make sure to check out his site if you haven’t already… http://www.lajollasurf.org/ )