Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 1/28/2010

Forecast Overview

Look for mostly rideable leftovers on Friday (after the FAT morning tide drops off). New WNW-NW swell fills in through Friday afternoon and peaks with overhead surf at the top spots over the weekend. More WNW-NW swell heading for next week and better morning tides as well...stupid tides.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Expect a sloooooooow morning…that stupid morning high tide will continue to steamroll most of our surf. Buried somewhere under the tide we will have a mix of leftover WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some smaller S-SSW swell (180-200). Once we have the extra water drain out…most spots will have knee-waist high waves with some chest high sets. The standout NW breaks and the good combo spots will have some shoulder high sets. A new WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts to move in with long-period energy throughout the 2nd half of the day…possibly getting some new waves into Ventura (and Santa Barbara but not as much thanks to the longer-periods)…I wouldn’t be surprised to see some head high and overhead sets coming through in those areas before sundown. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable morning winds, even a little offshore at some of the better positioned breaks. Expect W-NW winds 10-15 knots coming onshore through mid-afternoon.



Saturday
The new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will peak while the S-SSW swell fades, there will be a lot more rideable waves…but we still have to get through another fat 6.6’ high morning tide (peaks around 8:30am) to see the biggest and most consistent surf. Once the tide has balanced out we can expect the average WNW facing spots and better combo breaks to see some chest-head high surf. Standout WNW-NW spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead, and probably a few bigger waves mixing it up now and then. Winds/Weather: Winds look light on Saturday but they have a little more onshore flavor to them. Look for mostly light and variable to lightly onshore textured in the AM…and then more WNW-NW 10-15+ knots by the afternoon.



Sunday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will hold plenty of energy into Sunday but the S-SSW pulse will be on its last legs. Again that stupid tide will screw up the morning conditions/shape, but there will be some spots that can muscle through the 6’+ high…not many, but a few. By the time the tide drops we will be back into chest-head high surf at most WNW facing spots. Standout NW breaks…again in the usual good winter areas…will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with sets still going a couple of feet overhead at the best breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds improve again as the little front that passed over on Saturday moves out. Look for light offshore flow for most areas with some moderate offshore flow for the areas with passes and canyons. Winds go onshore out of the WNW around 10 knots for the afternoon but will slow down again near sundown.



Monday
The mix of WNW-NW swell drops off on Monday but we will still have rideable surf at most spots…there is even another little shot of S-SSW swell that fills in through the background. More tide problems early…but the peak of the high is around 10am…so there might be a little more of an early morning window for the dawn-patrol guys. Look for more chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW spots. Standout breaks see some head high sets…maybe a few bigger sets showing at the best spots that like the shorter periods in the tail end of the swell.



Long-Range

North Pacific
This has definitely been a good winter so far (well other than having Mother Nature try to wash away Socal)…and this weekend will continue the streak of swell action. New WNW-NW swell (280-300) moves in later on Friday and peaks with overhead+ surf at the standout breaks over the weekend…check out the wavewatchIII model for this storm as it sets up the swell.



The storm isn’t crazy huge but it has had a good track across the mid-latitudes, and the fetch has been pretty steady with 35-40+ knots of wind…even some gusts around 50-knots, which helps put a little more pep into the swell. Overall this looks like another pretty fun looking swell…the angle is a little steeper than the last couple of swells we had so if you are looking for bigger waves you are going to want to stick to the NW facing standouts.

Further Out the storm track stays pretty active in the forecast run…we actually have a new storm that is already forming to the north of Hawaii and it is forecast to push toward the West Coast setting up another round of WNW-NW swell that starts arriving late on Tuesday (Feb 2) and peaks more through Wednesday/Thursday (Feb 3-4). This one looks good for more chest-head high surf at most spots…and a little overhead at the standouts.



Even Further out the weather/wind models are calling for another storm to form up just off the California coast…possibly sending in another stormy W-WNW swell for Friday/Saturday Feb 5-6th. This one is a long ways from forming but it will be worth keeping an eye on.

South Pacific
Still some minor activity down in the South Pacific…just some weak pulses of S-SSW swell that arrive on Monday Feb 1 and then sort of waffle on and off as following pulses try to sneak in after it. Overall none of it looks much bigger than knee-waist high at the top breaks…hopefully there will be enough energy to cross up the WNW-NW energy at the good combo spots.



Further out I am starting to see some better signs of life in the SPAC storm-track in the long-range forecast. The most notable is a strong tropical/sub-tropical system that makes a fast jump into the colder latitudes just south of Tahiti in about 5 days…this is the sort of mixing that helps spark up bigger storms…and even though the best part of this storm is forecast to move away from up it looks like it might set up a better SSW swell for around the 10-11th of Feb…stay tuned.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 1st, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Thursday – Fun WNW swell, clean conditions, and some morning swampthing

Thursday will be a surf day…clean conditions, fun WNW swell…we just need to get past the morning high tide.

We are going to see the new WNW swell (275-300) peak early on Thursday and hold into the afternoon. This WNW energy will mix with some small SSW swell (190-210) that won’t be big enough to help out all that much but might help to crease up the WNW energy at the best combo spots.



Average spots are going to see surf in the waist-chest high range for most of the day (though shape will be really slow as the high tide peaks in the morning)…and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few bigger sets mixing in at times. Standout WNW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the chest-head high range with a few overhead+ waves mixing in on the bigger sets…even the top spots can expect more slow shape through the morning but they should recover faster and see more consistent surf as the tide drops.

Winds look good for the morning…light/variable to light/moderate offshore winds will be on tap through the early morning. Sort of variable texture will spring up through the midmorning and by the afternoon we can expect some onshore NW winds around 10-15+ knots. Looks like a few of the more protected areas may see some cleanup as winds lay down around sundown…but don’t plan your whole day around them.



This new WNW swell is already showing along our beaches this afternoon, (now that the tide has dropped), and it is looking a touch walled at the beach breaks, which may be a side-effect of the really low tide that is hitting right now. I expect the lined-up shape of this swell to continue on Thursday…so the points/reefs are going to have the best shape. If you aren’t lucky enough to have a point/reef nearby I would plan on checking the spots that have something (rock, jetty, pier, good sandbar, Jimmy Hoffa) that can put a corner on the wave shape.

Overall this looks like a pretty decent short-medium period WNW swell that will have enough W in it to make it into most exposed areas…if the tide wasn’t so freaking high in the morning I would probably say that it would be worth driving a little further to find more size/better shape but it is going to be pretty soft everywhere through the first part of the day, and then it will be the usual race to see if the tide can drop faster than the onshore winds pick up.

Here are the tides…

12/17/2009 Thursday
02:30AM LST 2.4 L
08:37AM LST 5.9 H (damn you swampthing!)
04:11PM LST -0.7 L
10:42PM LST 3.6 H

Wednesday's Waves - Damn it is Wednesday already?

Wednesday is going to be a surf day. We have a fun swell combo with a touch more energy arriving throughout the day, conditions will be clean, and if we can get past the morning high tide we should be able to have some fun.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of overlapping WNW-NW swells (285-300 but with most of the energy above 290-degrees) and some new SW swell (200-220).

Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high+ range. The standout combo spots, again mostly in San Diego, South Orange County, as well as the South Bay and parts of Ventura will have waves in the chest-shoulder high+ range. A few of the top breaks will have bigger sets on the lower tides.

Winds will be good tomorrow...mostly light and variable for most areas and even a few beaches with some light offshore flow early. Look for building NW winds around 10-12 knots by the afternoon.

Like I said things look fun tomorrow...sets may be a bit less consistent compared to the last few days but the swell periods will be longer so hopefully the surf will have a little more punch. I would still plan on finding the best surf at the combo beach breaks...particularly spots that can handle some higher tides. The points and reefs will still be fun but won't connect as well as they can.

Here are the tides

01:12AM LST 1.5' Low
07:21AM LST 6.6' High (weak sauce)
02:35PM LST -1.0' Low
08:47PM LST 4.0' High