Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Random Long Range Forecast: Light at the end of the tunnel

The surf has been sucking the last couple of days but it does look like things are going to improve rather quickly as we move into the upcoming weekend.

The North Pacific Storm track has gotten a bit more active over the last week and it looks like it is just going to get more intense as we head toward the weekend and next week.

Right now we have a couple of low-pressures to the N and NE of Hawaii that are going to be sending us some new, playful sized, WNW swell for the weekend and into next Monday. Check out the QUIKscat



The first WNW swell (280-300) arrives later on Friday, showing mostly in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon and arriving more after dark. Look for this swell to peak on Saturday and Sunday with surf in the waist-chest high+ range for many areas and some shoulder-head high sets at the standout breaks in Ventura and San Diego. There will also be a touch of increasing SW swell in the water so hopefully we can have some combo fun at the exposed breaks over the weekend.

Further out the models are showing a pretty decent sized low and cold front developing just off the California Coast. It is a waaaays out on the charts at this point so I am not totally sold on how it will pull together. Based on Today's charts we could see a mix of shoulder-head high+ W-WNW swell arriving on Wednesday the 26th and peaking into Thursday/Friday over the thanksgiving holiday. Like I said it is still a ways from forming but it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Check back I will have more updates as we get closer.

Yeah for waves!

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you!
What interval will that swell next Wednesday have and what time of day on Wednesday, according to your latest look at the Fcast charts?
Coconutz!

Anonymous said...

Yeah for waves... U sound gay...horay for waves you gonna skip around with your mini skirt and pig tails too...

Anonymous said...

Hey adam.. We got a new name... its not adam wright...its been adam Wrong for a while....du dum chim....

Adam Wright said...

Coco - it is a bit to early to get that fired up about that swell. I would give it a few more days, probably till sunday at least before we start to get excited. At this point looks like we should have swell all of Wednesday and Thursday...but maybe some slop weather as well.

and the mini skirt is only for the weekends.

Man who let the anonymous 'tards out on the interweb tonight?

23 Chips said...

Anonymous chumps,

If you can do a better forecast, then The Chips says start your own blog and have at it. Otherwise stop whining about a free forecast. If you have problems, then come talk to The Chips about it.

23 Chips

pushingtide said...

If I surf 28th Manhattan Beach would that be a foot higher than 26th street although it would have a lower tide by .04 so I better go to 30th which likes the swell period better but then again 18th with like the little west in the swell. Thanks!

Pezman said...

(Eyeballs the 180 hr charts and begs and pleads the surf lords to keep it as good at this time next week)

Heh

Anonymous said...

AW, Thanks I kept my day off next Wedsnesday, I would have to cancel it a week in advance, so it was a decision deadline. I am woried the way the NPAC is activating i may miss a better swell the week after. We will see. Sorry about the short bus window lickers with scarred tongues. Obviously not long time appreciative SCF bloggers. As for pushing tide stay in the south bay or you'll be pushing loose teeth out of your mouth, I better not see you at my break which starts getting west swells generally at 14 seconds. Go to the back of the short bus, stop licking the window and take your meds. Freaking rookies!
Thanks AW, Coconutz!