Friday, November 7, 2008

Waves for the Weekend - Fun Saturday but Sunday is looking ugly

We are going have some waves this weekend but a new cold front is expected to slip into our region on Sunday and really junk up conditions with onshore winds.

On Saturday we are going to see a mix of playful overlapping S-SW swells (190-205) and some background but slowly building NW windswell. The average spots will see surf in the knee-waist high range while the better S-SW facing breaks see some chest high sets. Standout combo spots, mostly in San Diego, see some chest-shoulder high sets but stay inconsistent throughout the morning.

Conditions on Saturday look decent as well. Mostly light and variable to light offshore winds for most spots through the morning. W winds will increase to about 10-15 knots by the afternoon.

Sunday on the other hand looks like the wheels start to come off. Our swell mix will be building...the S-SW'er will actually stay about the same but we will have a new WNW'er (280-300) and some increasing local NW windswell piling in on top of that. Wave heights will build for most spots...pushing up into the waist-shoulder high range while the top W facing breaks in Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego see some overhead sets.

Unfortunately the winds go sour on us...and the same junk that is building up the WNW energy will move right over our area. Look for W winds around 10-15+ knots through the morning and gusts hitting close to 20-knots for the afternoon. Check out the Sunday morning COAMPS forecast...not pretty

Daddy why is the ocean bleeding?

Since Saturday is the most awesome day in the history of time I will be out looking for a few waves in the morning, probably not too early so that I can avoid the AM chilly, but early enough that I can beat the onshore winds. I am not expecting a ton of surf but it should be playful at least.

Sunday I think our best bet is taking it easy in the morning but keeping an eye on the winds, they might not build in as fast as the models are indicating, possibly opening a surf window in the morning. I wouldn't hold your breath but at least keep in mind there is a chance. (more like one in a million Lloyd...)

Here are the tides...

Saturday (awesome)
05:32AM LST 4.7' High
11:50AM LST 1.7' Low
05:20PM LST 4.0' High
11:33PM LST 1.0' Low

05:54AM LST 5.2' High
12:30PM LST 1.0' Low
06:14PM LST 4.1' High


clint said...

hell yeah november 8th is the most awesome day ever its tom from myspaces barfday!!!! psych its yours too houser

Anonymous said...

Nov 8th is the mostest awesome day ever! Happy BDay Mr. Wright!!! Our Chief Forecaster is getting old!!!

Party hardy buddy!

Anonymous said...

happy bday.. maybe ill just go click on some of those ads again to pay for your tacos.. haha

Yong Jung Shin said...

happy birthday, left you some google clicks for it.

Keep the stoke going!

Anonymous said...

so you're telling me there's a chance...

Anonymous said...

would santa barbara have surf sunday and monday adam? what you think

Adam Wright said...

Winds look a little wild an wooly this morning...there may be a couple of pockets of surf on the insides of the points or really sheltered beaches but I wouldn't waste a lot of time looking.

Monday looks cleaner but there is still going to be some NW flow through the morning. The swell mix isn't the greatest for SB has some W in it but most of the size is coming in from a steeper NW angle. If you are looking for bigger waves then Ventura would be a better call, but that also means that it will have more wind problems.

Adam Wright said...

Thanks for the birthday wishes too! You guys have to see this 6-foot burrito that my wife got for my party. It was awesome.