Waves for Wednesday – Fading swell and sketchy weather

Wednesday will have some waves but with the weather expected to get all weird and the winds being a pain in the ass I don’t think it will be much of a surf day for most people.

Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping WNW swell (280-300) and some background S-SW swell mix from the Southern Hemi.



Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets at times. The standout NW breaks, again in the usually “better on NW swells” regions of Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some sets going head high.

Winds and weather look funky…the forecast models are calling for a fast moving cold front to push through sometime on Wednesday and in the process mix in a weird pocket of moisture as it does. The current weather forecast is for cloudy skies and a chance of rain for the morning, with increasing onshore winds and showers for the afternoon, particularly up towards the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas.

Check out the COAMPS forecast for tomorrow morning…this is showing about 5am. According to this it looks like variable onshore/side shore winds for Ventura/SB. Offshore E winds for LA…and then onshore winds again down in San Diego and Orange County. When I see things like this on the forecast I mentally label it “unstable”, which usually means the model doesn’t know what is going to happen and is just picking random crap to show us.



That being said...I don’t think we should completely write-off tomorrow morning, there are some waves which, unless the wind is for sure howling onshore, means that it will be worth at least a cam-check in the morning. I wouldn’t plan on a lot of surfing, or it even being that great of surf if the winds are light…but at least there would be something to ride. Anyway conditions look a lot better later this week and into the weekend (more waves too)…you might want butter up the warden by doing a few chores...so you can score some in a few days.

Here are the tides…

12/30/2009 Wednesday
12:50AM LST 2.1 L
07:05AM LST 6.6 H (you suck tide!)
02:40PM LST -1.4 L
09:05PM LST 3.6 H

Waves for Wednesday (Well sort of) – Not much out there

Wednesday doesn’t look like a surf day despite cleaner conditions.

The winds will be better but unfortunately we will have mostly weak leftover swell and polluted water to sit around in (and slowly get poisoned).

Wavewise we are going to have a mix of weak W-WNW leftovers and tiny touch of southern hemi swell that is holding in the background. Both of these swells will be small and have pretty short periods so the surf that does show will be soft and gutless.

Most spots will be in the knee high+ range with a few rare (gutless) waist high sets. A few of the standout windswell spots and the better exposed NW breaks will have some chest high+ sets but again it will be on the weak side.

Winds are better…mostly light/variable to light offshore for most areas in the morning and then weak to moderate onshore winds by the afternoon. Most of the weather models are still calling for a level of instability in our local weather…maybe even some rain and thunderstorms…but it appears to be in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which means we may get the weather but without the wind. Generally, in my experience, it just means that you can’t put much faith in the models and should spend a little time doing a check with the surfcams or the MarkIV Eyeball before heading to the beach.

Here is the latest weather update from the NWS graphical forecast.



Check out the same time-period for the winds.



Anyway it is sort of a moot point without any surf tomorrow. If you do want to go out and get some lovely HepC with a side of heavy metal poisoning from the runoff…I would take a small wave board (probably a longboard) and try and stay away from storm drains and rivermouths.

Here are the tides

01:18AM LST 4.1 H
06:29AM LST 2.3 L
12:06PM LST 4.9 H
07:23PM LST -0.1 L

Monday’s Surf – fading and starting to get fugly

Monday will have a few waves but it looks like the weather starts to get funky and the swell will be fading.

Unfortunately the WNW swell that hit over the weekend is dropping fast…looks like it didn’t have enough fetch in our swell window to help it string together more than a couple of sessions. I was actually a little disappointed with how the WNW swell showed around my neck of the woods (North OC)…a few spots close by got fun on Saturday but I was always behind the eightball with other shit I had going on…by the time I could break free the wind had got to it. Sunday that swell was basically sad leftovers…some longboard fun but nothing to get fired up on. It looked like SD and Ventura did pretty well…particularly on Saturday. If anyone got photos and fee like sharing…email over if you get a chance

Anyway with the WNW swell dropping and just a small SW swell holding in the background there isn’t going to be a ton of surf tomorrow. Plus we got a high tide pushing through early in the morning which is going to honk up the dawn patrol.

Expect most breaks to have surf in the knee-waist high range while the standout combo spots in San Diego, and maybe South Orange County, see some waist-chest high+ sets. Expect soft slow shape early with some wind texture as well. Sets will be on the inconsistent side too…man I am just filled with great news.

Weather is looking funky…we have a new low hanging off the coast that will start to edge over SoCal later in the day. Winds are forecast to be light/variable through the morning but a general S-SE flow may start to develop around midday and then strengthen into Tuesday. Chance of light rain by the afternoon as well.

Really I am not planning on surfing tomorrow…nothing I saw forecast-wise is motivating enough to get out of bed early on Monday. Things do get better later this week as more S swell and more WNW energy starts to arrive, and next weekend is hinting that we might see some more Santa Ana flow as well. Sorry to be cryptic...I am burned out on typing right now...I post some more stuff on the longer-range set up tomorrow.

Here are the tides.

12:12AM LST 1.6’ L
06:28AM LST 5.8’ H
01:38PM LST -0.1’ L
07:42PM LST 3.6’ H

Friday's Surf - Great...now we have rain to go with our small waves

Friday is not going to be surf day. Our swell will be mostly smaller leftovers and it looks like there is a chance at some rain as well.

We are going to have a mix of small SW energy...there is actually a new SW'er (195-210+) that is slowly starting to fill in but it doesn't really get going until the afternoon...we will also have some building WNW windswell starting to filter in about the same time.

On average we can expect most spots in the knee-waist high range...maybe a few plus sets starting to show at the really exposed combo spots in San Diego. A few of the top breaks may get to about chest high+ during the afternoon. The tide swing is going to honk us up again...so expect very swampy shape as the tide peaks around midmorning.

Winds and weather are going to be a bit funky as well...there is a cold front moving over the Cali coast over the next couple of days (actually it is two fronts...one tomorrow and one Sunday/Monday)...and it is supposed to bring some increasing wind as well as a bit of rain showers. Right now it looks like most of the showers will hit up around SB and Ventura but they are saying it may spread further south as well.

Check out the winds for tomorrow AM...it looks like increasing southerly winds for the Northern Counties (SB, Ventura) and lighter SE winds further south. A lot will depend on how fast the front moves so make sure to use the surf cams and live wind observations to get a good read on things at your local breaks tomorrow.



Really with the lack of swell and less than stellar conditions I am not expecting much surf. San Diego spots might be OK before the high tide but it is still going to be fairly sketchy from a weather/wind standpoint. Personally I am way more fired up that my oldest son (a 3 year old) is going as Optimus Prime for Halloween.

Have a great holiday tomorrow!

Here are the tides

03:53AM 2.4' Low
10:06AM 5.7' High
05:44PM 0.1' Low