Sunday, October 26, 2008

Monday’s Surf – Combo swell fog patrol

Monday will be a surf day but we may have trouble seeing the waves during the dawn patrol thanks to some pockets of fog.

We are going to have a mix of a still healthy but fading SSW swell (190-200), some steeply angled NW swell (290-300 which means only a few spots will be able to pick up much of the energy), and some local NNW windswell. Check out the current CDIP model.

Most of the average spots are going to be in the chest high+ range tomorrow. The better SW facing spots will have some shoulder high+ sets. The Standout SW facing breaks and the best combo spots, mostly through San Diego, will have sets in the shoulder-head+ high range on the lower tides.

Winds look good for the morning. Mostly light and variable with some pockets of texture around the bigger fog banks. Currently it looks like most of the fog will be settling over OC and SD but we may see it push further up the coast as well…don’t be surprised. Afternoon winds build out of the NNW around 10-12+ knots.

I checked a few spots on Sunday and it still looked a bit lined up despite a touch more WNW energy trying to break it up. Don’t get me wrong it was peakier than the last couple of days but the beach breaks still had some walled up shape when the bigger sets rolled through. I still think we could have some peakier shape on Monday as more of the WNW swell pushes through but expect the best shape to continue to show at the points and reefs (SW facing and Combo spots) rather than the more open beach breaks. If you need to surf a beach break try and get a pier or jetty…basically something to break it up.

Here are the tides

02:21AM 1.2’ Low
08:28AM 5.9’ High
03:19PM 0.0’ Low
09:17PM 4.3’ High


Anonymous said...

any chance that the Malibu will pick up any of this new swell for monday? What due you think Adam?

Anonymous said...

looks like next Monday and Tuesday is going to be a big NW what due you think adam?

Anonymous said...

I walked out on the pier in thick pea-soup fog and actually saw a few people trying to catch blown out, weak, knee-high, high-tide crumblers.

What were they thinking? Where have they been? Even if it was perfect, I can't imagine that many people still having enough energy to go out.

Adam Wright said...

It looks interesting for sure but I am always suspect of extended forecasts for the NPAC...especially when you are dealing with a storm forming right off the California coast. As you get closer to the coast there is sort of a low tolerance for storms that don't pull together at low enough latitudes to keep in SoCal's swell window.

I look at it like this from a forecast standpoint...if you are looking at the wave/wind model...24-48 hours "out" is usually about 80% accurate...when you get to 72 hours it drops to like 50-60% accuracy...further out it gets even worse.

Normally it isn't that big of an issue because the storms are so large that having the core of the storm out of position by a few hundred miles isn't a swell killer. But when you are right up next to the landmass and you have all of the blockage from Point Conception and the nearshore islands to contend if the storm is out of position, or isn't intense enough inside our swell window then you get shafted.

That being said it is nice to see this storm on the charts but I am going to wait a couple of more days before I get too excited about it. It would be really nice to get some solid W-WNW swell. I love winter and fall.