Waves for the Weekend – Small swell combo

It looks like we are going to have a couple of surf days this weekend…again it won’t be great but the conditions will be nice and there will be a few playful waves the water.

We are going to have a mix of SW swell (190-210) that moves in and peaks late Saturday and into Sunday and some local NW windswell. We are also going to see some new WNW swell (290-300+) that moves in on Sunday, peaks Sunday evening and holds into Monday. Even though this sounds like a lot of activity none of the swells are particularly big so wave heights will remain in small, slightly inconsistent, playful ranges.

On average we can expect waist-chest high range at spots with sort of moderate exposure to the swell mix. Summer spots will be more consistent Saturday/Sunday while the NW facing breaks will be a little bigger Sunday/Monday. The top breaks, mostly the excellent combo breaks, will have some chest to almost shoulder high sets on the lower tides.


The picture that never changes.

Winds and weather look like your typical spring patterns…a little cloudy with light/variable winds through the mornings with clearning skies and building NW winds (10-15 knots) pushing through the afternoon. Hopefully the winds will stay slow enough in the outer waters that we avoid getting much of an eddy over the next few days.

Like I said there will be some playful surf this weekend…it won’t be firing or anything…but if you have the time it will be worth it to carve out a little session in the morning before the tide comes up. I wouldn’t drive very far to get waves if you can help it…if you find a little peak close to home you should get on it. Smaller wave gear will continue to be the most fun.

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

Saturday
05:04AM LDT -0.4 L
11:05AM LDT 3.8 H
04:37PM LDT 1.1 L
10:46PM LDT 5.6 H

Sunday
05:52AM LDT -0.4 L
11:57AM LDT 3.4 H
05:05PM LDT 1.5 L
11:22PM LDT 5.5 H

Surf for Tuesday – Clean with a few fun ones

Tuesday looks sooooo much more surfable than Monday. I would even venture to say that it is going to be a surf day at the better NW facing spots.

We are going to have a mix of WNW swell (some of which will be leftover from the weekend as well as a new pulse of energy from (290-300) and local windswell) that filled in on Monday and will be slowly fading out on Tuesday.

Wave heights for most average W-NW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the lower tides. The top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high waves on the better sets, tides permitting of course.

Weather looks much better with light and variable to light offshore winds in the morning and only moderate NW winds 10-12 knots by the afternoon. Check the COAMPS for tomorrow morning...I like seeing winds going those directions on forecast charts.



Like I said above...I think we are going to see a few fun waves tomorrow. It won’t be great, but anything is better than the blown out mess that we saw on Monday. I would plan on sticking with those top NW facing spots if you are looking for consistent size...but there should be some rideable waves at most of the W-WNW facing spots as well. I don’t think that it will be worth driving cross county lines...or even that far for that matter...but it will be worth driving a little further for a NW facing spot tomorrow. The tides are going to be an issue again...try and plan around the high-tide peak if you can.

03:07AM LST 1.7 L
09:03AM LST 5.5 H (damn you gravity!)
04:09PM LST -0.6 L
10:23PM LST 4.0 H

Monday’s Surf – Combo swell fog patrol

Monday will be a surf day but we may have trouble seeing the waves during the dawn patrol thanks to some pockets of fog.

We are going to have a mix of a still healthy but fading SSW swell (190-200), some steeply angled NW swell (290-300 which means only a few spots will be able to pick up much of the energy), and some local NNW windswell. Check out the current CDIP model.



Most of the average spots are going to be in the chest high+ range tomorrow. The better SW facing spots will have some shoulder high+ sets. The Standout SW facing breaks and the best combo spots, mostly through San Diego, will have sets in the shoulder-head+ high range on the lower tides.

Winds look good for the morning. Mostly light and variable with some pockets of texture around the bigger fog banks. Currently it looks like most of the fog will be settling over OC and SD but we may see it push further up the coast as well…don’t be surprised. Afternoon winds build out of the NNW around 10-12+ knots.

I checked a few spots on Sunday and it still looked a bit lined up despite a touch more WNW energy trying to break it up. Don’t get me wrong it was peakier than the last couple of days but the beach breaks still had some walled up shape when the bigger sets rolled through. I still think we could have some peakier shape on Monday as more of the WNW swell pushes through but expect the best shape to continue to show at the points and reefs (SW facing and Combo spots) rather than the more open beach breaks. If you need to surf a beach break try and get a pier or jetty…basically something to break it up.

Here are the tides

02:21AM 1.2’ Low
08:28AM 5.9’ High
03:19PM 0.0’ Low
09:17PM 4.3’ High

Waves for the Weekend – SW swell holds while new NW swell starts to arrive

It is going to be a surf weekend. We are going to have a mix of SW and WNW swell, warm weather, light to light-offshore winds, (and probably plenty of crowded lineups to go along with it).

Our surf will be a mix of SW swell (190-210), that holds into Saturday before slowly fading out on Sunday, and small WNW energy that sort of hangs around through Saturday but increases as a new WNW pulse (290-300) starts to hit the northern counties (Ventura and LA) on Sunday before finally pushing into OC and SD later Sunday evening (and holding into Monday).

Here is a shot of the swell mix from this afternoon…you have to love SW swells sometimes.



And here is a shot of the CDIP forecast for the next few days…yes the sideways images are always annoying but once you get oriented you can see where the swell mix shows a bit better.



On Saturday average spots see chest-high+ surf while the average SW facing breaks see chest-head high waves. Standout SW facing breaks in Orange County and North San Diego will have some overhead faces through the morning.

Sunday will start out a little slower…more in the waist-chest high range at the average spots. A little bigger at the average SW facing breaks and close to shoulder high+ at the standout combo breaks. Looks like a few of top combo spots could see some chest-head high faces on the bigger sets in the afternoon (if you can find a spot not buried by the tide).

Winds look good for both days…look for light/variable to light offshore flow for the mornings and light/moderate onshore bump for the more exposed breaks through the afternoons.

I wish that there was a bit more WNW energy pushing through over the weekend…or at least the swell we are seeing would come in a bit more westerly. As it is…it looks like the SW swell is going to stay pretty lined up at the beach breaks…so we can expect some hollow but mostly closed out lefts marching down the beach. Points and reefs are going to have much better shape but since the beach breaks are sort of a lost cause it looks like the other spots are going to get pretty slammed crowdwise. I would plan on it being a bit frustrating at times.

Personally I am holding out some hope for Sunday/Monday. With a little luck the new WNW pulse will be strong enough to break up the fading SW’er…I don’t know about you but I am willing to sacrifice a little size to get a (mostly) uncrowded peak on a beach break somewhere…who knows maybe you like closeout lefts and crowded pointbreaks, you freak.

Have a great weekend!

Oh here are the tides...

Saturday
01:23AM 0.5’ Low
07:39AM 5.4’ High
02:03PM 0.8’ Low
07:50PM 4.7’ High

Sunday
01:54AM 0.8’ Low
08:04AM 5.7’ High
02:42PM 0.3’ Low
08:35PM 4.5’ High

Wednesday's Waves - Combo swell surfing on Hump Day

Wednesday is looking like a surf day...but we will have to work around the 6'+ high tide that buries us around 9:30am.

We are going to have a mix of new SSW swell (190-200) and WNW swell (290-300) as well as a touch of local NW windswell. Here is a shot of the swell mix starting to fill in this afternoon on the CDIP model...(try and ignore the swell periods and directions sometimes the model does screwy things when it averages swells together).



Surfwise the average exposed breaks will be in the waist-chest high range on the lower tides. Ventura and the LA South Bay will be a bit more in the chest high+ range thanks to better exposure to the WNW swell. (Santa Barbara is looking smaller than most areas due to the steep angle of the WNW swell and the blockage by the channel islands).

Standout combo surf spots, mostly in San Diego, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets mixing in on the better tides as well. Orange County will be similar in size but mostly off the SSW swell rather than the WNW/SW combo that San Diego sees so try and pick your spots accordingly.

Weather and winds are looking pretty decent tomorrow...the Santa Ana flow is expected to back down (maybe give the fire teams a break thankfully) but we will still see some light offshore to light and variable winds through the morning. Onshore bump starts to pick up around midday and will eventually top out around 10-15 knots out of the W-NW during the afternoon.

Since we will be seeing a combo swell tomorrow that has some democratic swell angles almost all areas will be able to pick up some waves from either of the SSW/WNW swell directions. I think the tide is going to be a bit of deal-breaker in the morning though which sucks...there may be a few spots that can power through the 6' high tide but I would even plan on those spots being pretty soft. I wish the tide was a little further back in the morning (or we had an earlier sunrise) but I can wish to win the lotto too but it doesn't mean that it is going to happen. Oh well, cross your fingers that we can get past the high tide peak before the wind starts to get too bad.

Tides for Wednesday

03:22AM 1.2' Low
09:27AM 6.3' High (brutal!)
04:26PM -0.6' Low
10:33PM 4.3' High

Waves for the Weekend - A little stormy but with plenty of swell

We are going to have a bunch of waves this weekend but the weather and winds don't look like they are going to cooperate enough to make it very fun.

On Saturday we are going to see a mix of SSW swells, local windswell, WNW energy, and some increasing tropical S-swell energy in the afternoon.

Wave heights are going to hold in the chest-shoulder high range at most of the decent breaks (both WNW and S facing). Top spots, particularly the S-facing standouts, good winter spots, and excellent combo spots will have shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in.

Unfortunately winds/weather will be the issue on Saturday. There is a new storm front that is forecast to move through SoCal bringing some increasing S-SW winds and rain through the morning...and then more rain and SW-W winds around 20+ knots by the afternoon. Check out the COAMPS model.



Here is the weather model for the morning as well...looks like most of the rain will be up in LA, Ventura, and Santa Barbara areas.



Now there may be a surf-pocket in the morning...particularly for the spots that are further south (OC and SD). A lot depends on the front and when it actually arrives. If it stalls out we may see cleaner conditions. Personally I think it is a good idea to give the cams a quick check in the morning and see if the winds and rain have head off. Here is a shot of where the front is as of this afternoon.



On Sunday we are going to see more swell as the SSW'ers hold, the windswell increases with the storm, and more WNW swell and tropical S swell build into the mix. Wave heights will be similar to Saturday but with a bit more size. Average spots will be in the shoulder-head high+ range while the standouts see overhead+ sets.

Shape isn’t looking great...usually we get strong NW winds that push in behind a front and they have a tendency to really slop things up. There may be a couple of protected spots but in general I am expecting mostly poor shape and crappy water quality if we get any sort of significant rainfall. Here is a shot of Sunday's winds...again they look on the lighter side in the morning but the onshore flow builds in really fast as we head to midmorning.



Here are the tides for the weekend...cross your fingers that the winds stay lighter than the forecasts...and have a good one!

Saturday

01:19AM 3.1' High
04:59AM 2.7' Low
11:40AM 4.9' High
07:58PM 1.1' Low

Sunday

12:21PM 4.6' High
09:30PM 1.2' Low

Thursday's Surf - Looking fun

Thursday is looking like a surf day. (even Wednesday ended up being more of a surf day than I anticipated and it looks like it should be at least bigger, if not better tomorrow).

We are going to see a mix of overlapping S-SW swells (190-205), local windswell, and some new WNW energy (290-300) from the NPAC.

Average spots throughout SoCal will be in the waist high range with some chest high sets on the lower tides.

Better S-SW facing spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on sets.

Standout S-SW facing breaks as well the top combo swell spots, mostly in Orange County and San Diego, will have surf in the chest-head high range.

Conditions look pretty good...mostly light and variable with some pockets of light offshore flow in some of the areas with passes or canyons. Check out the wind-model for tomorrow morning.




I am going to get up and go surfing tomorrow morning. I don't expect it to be "great" but I do think it will be fun...and my new quad really needs to have some fun-size clean conditions to get broken in. I think the morning will be the best call...the winds are light, the tides have finally evened out a bit, and the swell mix will be in the water. I don't think it will be worth driving a ton to get waves, just not enough size to make spots really click, but if you have to burn a little extra gas to get to the beach Thursday will be decent call...particularly since it looks like weather starts to crap out on us Friday and Saturday.

Here are the tides for Thursday.

04:35AM 1.9' Low
10:45AM 5.5' High
06:02PM 0.5' Low

Playful wave alert - Don't bury the North Pacific...it's not dead yet.

I was about ready to put up the "closed for the season" sign for the North Pacific Storm Track but as usual Mother Nature has different plans.

Over the past 24+ hours a decent little storm spun up into a holding position NNE of Hawaii, just off the edge of the Gulf of Alaska.

Now before you get all excited...this is definitely not a big storm...it isn't even a large or strong storm...it has just enough energy to make me want to mention it in the blog.

The good news is that it will be kicking out a string of playful sized swell for Northern California and as a bonus it will send out a small pulse of WNW energy for Southern California as well.

Here is are a few pics of the system

This is the QUIKSCAT Satellite



This is the wavewatchIII wave model



And here is the FNMOC - EFS Gale Warning ensemble (which basically tells you where strong winds are forecast to develop)



Yes I know..."lots of pretty pictures...thanks for sharing...how about some surf?"

Whatever jerks...here are the forecasts for this system

Northern California will see W-WNW swell (280-300) arriving throughout the day on Saturday and eventually peaking overnight into Sunday. As the swell peaks look for W facing breaks to have surf in the waist-shoulder high+ range while the standout spots see some overhead sets mixing in at times. Winds should be only OK for this period...NW flow around 10-15 knots will keep some of the more exposed breaks fairly bumpy...but the better westerly angle of this swell means that more energy will be able to wrap into the more protected spots. Essentially we will have some decent size surf at the sheltered areas of Santa Cruz and the Central Coast along with some protection from the wind. (also worth noting that this storm is expected to jump in the Gulf over the next 48-72 hours and in the process set up a steeper NW swell for early next week).

Southern California (and Baja Norte) will see this swell arrive slowly on Sunday...then peak Sunday afternoon into Monday. It won't be big...exposed breaks will be around knee-waist high with some chest high sets...but it will help to cross up some small SW swell at the combo breaks adding a little size, more consistency, and better shape at the top spots.

Anyway like I said nothing to get super fired up about but since the NPAC is about to close up shop I thought it would be worth mentioning.