Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Thursday's Surf - Combo swell with a side of tide-burgers for brunch

Thursday is looking pretty surfable...not quite as big as Wednesday but still plenty fun if your spot can pull in the swell mix.

In the water we will have a mix of slowly fading SSW (190-200) and WNW swell (290-300) that is dropping a bit faster. Here is a shot of the swell from Wednesday afternoon...



Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range for most of the average exposed spots through Ventura, North LA, and the South Bay. (Santa Barbara will be smaller...don't worry you guys will get your chance before too long).

Standout regions like San Diego and Orange County will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some shoulder high sets on the better tides.
Winds are looking good as well...look for light to moderate offshore flow through the morning with stronger offshore gusts near passes and canyons. It doesn't look like a pure Santa Ana wind flow but the coastal areas should be nice and clean. Afternoon winds also look pretty darn good...mostly light onshore below 10 knots...so there may be a chance at some surf in the afternoon as well.

About the biggest issue is going to be the 6'+ high tide that crushes surf shape around 10am. (the tidal swing is basically a 7' difference between the high in the morning and the negative low in the afternoon). The peak of the high tide is far enough back midmorning that I think you might be able to sneak in a dawn patrol session before things get too swampy but you will probably want to stick with a spot that can handle a little more water. I think shape will be best at the points and reefs as we start dropping to a lower tide...but there will be enough combo swell still in the water that the combo beach breaks will still be a decent back-up.

Tides for Thursday

03:53AM 1.5' Low
10:01AM 6.4' High (again f-ing brutal)
05:15PM -0.6' Low
11:29PM 3.9' High


Out the Back from a Forecast Perspective (Ok just call it a long-range forecast heads up). There is a large storm forecast to form up in the North Pacific in about 5-days...I don't even really want to talk about it much because I have seen too many of these storms show on the charts but never actually form in real life...but it is worth at least keeping an eye on it. Right now if the wheels stay on the forecast models it could potentially send us a new WNW swell for around the 24-25th. Naturally I will have more updates as we get closer to the storm actually forming.


11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Adam your nuts man, wed sucked for surf and thursday is going to be a big day, what are you talking about when you say its going to be smaller. Please review your charts before making conclusions.

travis said...

I think I got a couple head high or close to it waves this afternoon. glassy too.

Anonymous said...

yea there were some good ones.

Anonymous said...

get back to the heart, guys. where's the love? sucks to come to this site and read such venting like that. if such anger is the fruit of your love of surfing, i suggest you take a break for awhile. we all have our bad days, but lighten up on the newbies, man.

Adam Wright said...

Wednesday was the peak day for the swell mix...that WNW'er is pretty much gone this morning, the SSW'er is fading out too but still has some fun waves showing at times, even the windswell is backing down. By the time the tide drops this afternoon there isn't going to be much swell left.

And I agree with you guys...there is no room on this site for hate. Surfing should be fun and if you aren't having fun then you should probably do something else.

Anonymous said...

I could'nt agree more. This site is too much fun. There are plenty of other places on the internet to go get angry. This place is not one of them.

Pezman said...

Must... resist... urge... to... overcall ... big NW swell ;)

Anonymous said...

I want to get on the bandwagon here with the negative comments. This is a cool website and their are plenty of other venues to rant about surfing. Besides, if you feel this frustrated with your time in the water, you might want to reflect on why something relaxing and invigorating like surfing is the source of so much conflict.

Anonymous said...

It's a FORECAST and it's pretty damn good most of the time. But there's always some surprises and I like it that way . . . this site kick ass!!!!

Anonymous said...

Nice use of the English language, kook (your =/ you are = you're). Wed had o/h sets every 10-15 minutes at spots that pick up combo swells. There's a reason there was a huge crowd at everyone's favorite contest site.

er said...

Wed & Thurs were FUN! Perfect conditions and heaps of barrels..

Another "anonymous" Kook probably visiting from the deserts!