In the water we will have a mix of slowly fading SSW (190-200) and WNW swell (290-300) that is dropping a bit faster. Here is a shot of the swell from Wednesday afternoon...
Wave heights will be in the waist-chest high range for most of the average exposed spots through Ventura, North LA, and the South Bay. (Santa Barbara will be smaller...don't worry you guys will get your chance before too long).
Standout regions like San Diego and Orange County will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some shoulder high sets on the better tides.
Winds are looking good as well...look for light to moderate offshore flow through the morning with stronger offshore gusts near passes and canyons. It doesn't look like a pure Santa Ana wind flow but the coastal areas should be nice and clean. Afternoon winds also look pretty darn good...mostly light onshore below 10 knots...so there may be a chance at some surf in the afternoon as well.
About the biggest issue is going to be the 6'+ high tide that crushes surf shape around 10am. (the tidal swing is basically a 7' difference between the high in the morning and the negative low in the afternoon). The peak of the high tide is far enough back midmorning that I think you might be able to sneak in a dawn patrol session before things get too swampy but you will probably want to stick with a spot that can handle a little more water. I think shape will be best at the points and reefs as we start dropping to a lower tide...but there will be enough combo swell still in the water that the combo beach breaks will still be a decent back-up.
Tides for Thursday
03:53AM 1.5' Low
10:01AM 6.4' High (again f-ing brutal)
05:15PM -0.6' Low
11:29PM 3.9' High
Out the Back from a Forecast Perspective (Ok just call it a long-range forecast heads up). There is a large storm forecast to form up in the North Pacific in about 5-days...I don't even really want to talk about it much because I have seen too many of these storms show on the charts but never actually form in real life...but it is worth at least keeping an eye on it. Right now if the wheels stay on the forecast models it could potentially send us a new WNW swell for around the 24-25th. Naturally I will have more updates as we get closer to the storm actually forming.
