Saturday, October 11, 2008

Tropical Update – Norbert is not quite a bust but it is looking smaller

I was just going over the buoys this afternoon and despite the nasty slop that we are seeing on the beach there is some tropical swell hiding in the background. I even saw some sets sneaking into some spots exposed to the SE’er but sheltered from the windswell which indicates we should have a better chance at some surf tomorrow.

Right now the Dana Point Buoy is pulling in about 3.5-4 feet of energy out of the S-SE, which for some reason this buoy always registers these swells as nearly due south no matter how much SE is in them.

Anyway here is a shot of the latest buoy update…



You can see the energy hiding under the windswell…with most of it coming in from 10-14 seconds, and some limited energy coming in from 14-17 seconds.

What does this mean?…well the assload of windswell we currently have blasting through the outer waters isn’t doing this SE swell any favors, mix that with the fact that the NHC downgraded Norbert’s storm strength in a key area of swell production and it looks like we are going to have to back down the wave sizes for tomorrow, which is a freaking bummer.

Check out the newest estimation of windspeeds from the www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html site.



I still think that the exposed areas will have some fun…but the average spots are going to be closer to the chest-shoulder high range. The top SE facing breaks, mostly through North Orange County, should be in the shoulder-head high range on most waves with some overhead+ sets at times.

Winds still look much better for tomorrow and Monday as the Santa Ana conditions start to move in…lets cross our fingers that enough tropical swell (and the windswell combo) will stick around long enough for us to get a few waves from it.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You didn't seriously believe that we'd have an overhead hurricane swell did ya'? How often does that happen?

Anonymous said...

thanks for the update, working overtime for us?

thanks

Anonymous said...

well, you did insult him by calling his name lame...
exactly which spot will be the best though? hahaha!

Anonymous said...

60mph winds tomorrow, sleep in

Anonymous said...

Just like an Eddie Murphy led movie of the same name... Norbit is a bomb. Ugh

Surfer Dude said...

Norbert was a bust! We need to be in full El Nino mode to really get overhead surf from a hurricane - otherwise they peter out before they really get into our window...

Anonymous said...

I figured the wind would be blowing yesterday and this morning...both offshore days in the morning...at least down south.

Anonymous said...

1/2 of you wouldn't paddle out if there was an overhead hurricane swell anyway, so blah blah blah