Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Surf on Thursday - New SW swell starts to arrive

Thursday is going to be a surf day. We have a new SW swell that starts to arrive throughout the day and mixes with some nice conditions as a light Santa Ana pattern continues to hold throughout Southern California.

We will start off with a mix of leftover SPAC energy, local WNW windswell in the morning but new SW swell (190-210) and some new WNW energy will begin to fill fairly quickly and will start to be the dominant wave-maker by the afternoon.

Expect a conservative start to the day surfwise...most spots will hold in the waist-high range with some chest high+ sets coming through at the standout breaks. This will build into a more consistent chest-shoulder high sizes for the average breaks by the afternoon. Standout SW facing spots in Orange County and San Diego can expect surf in the shoulder-head high range by the afternoon and some bigger sets sneaking in right around sunset (wish it didn't get dark so early now...stupid planet tilt).

Winds look good...mostly light to moderately offshore for the morning, with the strongest winds moving through LA and Ventura Counties. These winds will hold through most of the morning. Look for mostly light/variable winds for the afternoon...but watch some of the more exposed beaches...sometimes these winds shift sideshore and onshore by the afternoon as the land inland heats up. Check out the COAMPS wind forecast.

I managed to sneak in a few waves at one of the local N. OC beach breaks on Wednesday and while there were a few hollow corners it was pretty walled up. That being said I am not really holding out a lot of hope for the beach break shape on this new SW'er that fills in tomorrow (and peaks Friday/Saturday). I think that the beaches are going to be pretty points and reefs are going be the best call. I don't think it will be worth driving around a ton tomorrow morning but as the swell starts to fill in more you should start to widen the hunt a bit. With the weather getting warm and a new swell filling in expect the crowd to start to come out too.

What I am hoping is that the mix of NW energy that increases over the weekend will help to break up this SW'er as it starts to fade out...cross your fingers...maybe we will get some more workable shape at the beach breaks in a few days.

Here are the tides for Thursday

12:03AM 0.1' Low
06:41AM 4.6' High
12:28PM 2.0' Low
06:02PM 4.8' High


Anonymous said...

Think Malibu 3rd point would pick up this SW swell tomorrow am? Or not tell the afternoon

Adam Wright said...

I am not naming spots...but the SW'er will be hitting tomorrow morning. It may be a bit swampy with the tide but I think there is going to be enough size for it to power through in most areas. However I would plan on the biggest surf showing through OC and San Diego rather than spots further north. They will still be fun just not as big or consistent.

If you live close by then it is worth a check for sure.