Thursday, February 21, 2008

Swell Alert Update: The Big W swell for next week

It looks like things are still on track for us getting a pretty large W-WNW swell (270-300) for Sunday afternoon and Monday (Feb 24-25th).

Like I said in my earlier post Storm Watch 2008 or AKA “My, isn’t that a big red blob?” I am not really stoked on the current forecasts for this storm. I think that the forecast models are overcalling this swell.

As we get closer the models are already starting to downsize it a touch…and I expect they will back off a bit further as we get closer.

Right now I am still expecting a decent sized pulse of W swell…it will be a pretty raw mix of energy because the storm is so close. It will be very consistent, a bit lumpy & mixed up, and I expect a ton of current at the exposed breaks as well.

Sizewise right now I think most W facing breaks will have surf in the 6-10’ range while the standout deepwater breaks in San Diego and Ventura (and a few other spots in the other regions) will top out close to 15’ on the sets. There may be a few bigger waves lurking around Sunday night…but I think most of those will be breaking after dark.

Winds and weather are still a bit up in the air…right now they are looking like they will be coming out of the N-NW...which means there could be some clean spots out there…particularly for the Santa Barbara and North LA areas…both of which will have smaller surf. The other more exposed spots may be bumpier.

This is one of those swells, that if you have the time, could be worth driving around for. Weather isn’t 100% in our favor but there will be a ton of energy in the water.

I should post another, special, update on Saturday that should dial in the swell/weather and best regions for waves…so make sure to check back in a couple of days.

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