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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Swell Update - Well hello there West Swell!
Here is the harvest buoy from Saturday afternoon...the new swell is starting to spike up...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – Sloppy Saturday, then cleaner Sunday with some large stormy W swell
Saturday does not look like surf day. Sunday will be much bigger as new W swell arrives but wind/conditions may not clean up all that much.
So Saturday will start with mosty leftovers, buried by the high tide, early in the morning…it will also have plenty of increasing S-SW winds and increasing periods of rain. By the afternoon a large shot of W-NW swell (275-300) starts to arrive, this will build overnight and eventually peak on Sunday. The stormy S-SW winds will turn NW’erly after midnight on Saturday and hold that NW’erly flow through most of Sunday.
Saturday will be pretty small in the morning…mostly knee-waist high at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standout WNW-NW spots. Shape will be slow and soft thanks to the high tide. Add in the S-SW winds (10-15+ knots) and it sounds like a good reason to stay in bed. There may be a couple of protected spots through the morning but the tide and lack of swell won’t really let much surf sneak into those areas.
Sunday a much, much bigger W-NW swell (275-300) arrives and peaks throughout the day. At this point the swell looks pretty hefty, particularly at the spots that have direct exposure to the WNW-NW.
Look for surf in the easy shoulder-overhead range for most W facing breaks. The better WNW facing spots will be running consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…and possibly bigger at times. The top NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the overhead to well overhead range and sets hitting near the double-overhead range. The swell actually gets a direct shot at Southern San Diego…so there is a shot at some bigger surf filtering into that region.
Winds look a bit suspect, but overall not as bad as Saturday…right now the models aren’t really matching up that well…check em out…
You can see that the COAMPS model is pretty heavy on the winds for the morning…showing steady onshore W-WNW winds, 10-20 knots, blowing through most areas pretty much from sunrise on.
The NWS graphical forecast is showing NW winds, strongest up around Ventura and Santa Barbara, but lighter as you move down through LA, OC, and San Diego.
Personally I don’t really trust either of the models all that much…a lot is going to depend on how fast the front moves through the area Saturday afternoon/night…if it can speed through we will see the ridge build in faster that would help clean up conditions. Based on what I am seeing I think that we plan on some light/moderate WNW-NW winds for the morning, maybe not enough to blow it out…but enough to get some bump texture on things. If you have to surf (in the poo water) then I would plan on sticking to spots that can handle the NW winds…you might even want to check some of the lesser exposed areas, there will be enough W in this swell to wrap energy into the more S-SW facing breaks, it won’t be as big as the W facing spots but they might dodge the wind a bit better.
When you get down to it this is another one of those weekends where, since we have a ton of swell in the water, that it may pay off to keep your “weather eye” on conditions…hopefully the dynamic nature of the storm will crack open a few surf windows as it passes on through. As usual if you surf send me a report and let me know how it is.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/27/2010 Saturday
01:38AM LST 0.9 L
07:37AM LST 6.1 H
02:29PM LST -1.2 L
08:37PM LST 4.8 H
02/28/2010 Sunday
02:26AM LST 0.4 L
08:23AM LST 6.0 H
03:03PM LST -1.1 L
09:10PM LST 5.2 H
So Saturday will start with mosty leftovers, buried by the high tide, early in the morning…it will also have plenty of increasing S-SW winds and increasing periods of rain. By the afternoon a large shot of W-NW swell (275-300) starts to arrive, this will build overnight and eventually peak on Sunday. The stormy S-SW winds will turn NW’erly after midnight on Saturday and hold that NW’erly flow through most of Sunday.
Saturday will be pretty small in the morning…mostly knee-waist high at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standout WNW-NW spots. Shape will be slow and soft thanks to the high tide. Add in the S-SW winds (10-15+ knots) and it sounds like a good reason to stay in bed. There may be a couple of protected spots through the morning but the tide and lack of swell won’t really let much surf sneak into those areas.
Sunday a much, much bigger W-NW swell (275-300) arrives and peaks throughout the day. At this point the swell looks pretty hefty, particularly at the spots that have direct exposure to the WNW-NW.
Look for surf in the easy shoulder-overhead range for most W facing breaks. The better WNW facing spots will be running consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…and possibly bigger at times. The top NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have surf in the overhead to well overhead range and sets hitting near the double-overhead range. The swell actually gets a direct shot at Southern San Diego…so there is a shot at some bigger surf filtering into that region.
Winds look a bit suspect, but overall not as bad as Saturday…right now the models aren’t really matching up that well…check em out…
You can see that the COAMPS model is pretty heavy on the winds for the morning…showing steady onshore W-WNW winds, 10-20 knots, blowing through most areas pretty much from sunrise on.
The NWS graphical forecast is showing NW winds, strongest up around Ventura and Santa Barbara, but lighter as you move down through LA, OC, and San Diego.
Personally I don’t really trust either of the models all that much…a lot is going to depend on how fast the front moves through the area Saturday afternoon/night…if it can speed through we will see the ridge build in faster that would help clean up conditions. Based on what I am seeing I think that we plan on some light/moderate WNW-NW winds for the morning, maybe not enough to blow it out…but enough to get some bump texture on things. If you have to surf (in the poo water) then I would plan on sticking to spots that can handle the NW winds…you might even want to check some of the lesser exposed areas, there will be enough W in this swell to wrap energy into the more S-SW facing breaks, it won’t be as big as the W facing spots but they might dodge the wind a bit better.
When you get down to it this is another one of those weekends where, since we have a ton of swell in the water, that it may pay off to keep your “weather eye” on conditions…hopefully the dynamic nature of the storm will crack open a few surf windows as it passes on through. As usual if you surf send me a report and let me know how it is.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/27/2010 Saturday
01:38AM LST 0.9 L
07:37AM LST 6.1 H
02:29PM LST -1.2 L
08:37PM LST 4.8 H
02/28/2010 Sunday
02:26AM LST 0.4 L
08:23AM LST 6.0 H
03:03PM LST -1.1 L
09:10PM LST 5.2 H
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Surf for Friday – Fun but with a morning swampthing
Friday will start off as a surf day…but you are going to want to stick with spots that can handle a higher tide.
The mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and SW swell (190-220) that filled in on Thursday will hold into early Friday and then slowly back down through the afternoon.
Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning thanks to the fatty high tide. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-head surf with sets going overhead+ at times once the tide drops. Really pay attention to the high tide…it is going to be pretty damn swampy first thing in the morning…so you will need to either find a break that can handle the extra water or wait for it to drop (and risk onshore winds).
Yet another storm system is forecast to move in on Friday…arriving more through the evening/night as we head toward Saturday…but there will be some shifting conditions on tap for Friday. Look for mostly light and variable winds on tap for Friday morning. S-SE winds will start to build up around Santa Barbara/Ventura around midday and then slowly push down the coast as we move through the afternoon. Look for S winds 10-15 knots on tap for most areas by sundown and then gusts hitting 25+ knots and rain arriving after midnight.
Man right back between the proverbial rock and the hard place…high dawn patrol tide and clean conditions vs dropping tide and building onshore winds…living in North OC I hate that choice, the wind almost always wins the race and waiting it out just leads to me driving around looking at blown out surf. I need to come up with a wind generator that can make it offshore all of the time…yeah I will get right on that.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/26/2010 Friday
12:49AM LST 1.4 L
06:48AM LST 6.0 H
01:54PM LST -1.2 L
08:06PM LST 4.4 H
The mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and SW swell (190-220) that filled in on Thursday will hold into early Friday and then slowly back down through the afternoon.
Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning thanks to the fatty high tide. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-head surf with sets going overhead+ at times once the tide drops. Really pay attention to the high tide…it is going to be pretty damn swampy first thing in the morning…so you will need to either find a break that can handle the extra water or wait for it to drop (and risk onshore winds).
Yet another storm system is forecast to move in on Friday…arriving more through the evening/night as we head toward Saturday…but there will be some shifting conditions on tap for Friday. Look for mostly light and variable winds on tap for Friday morning. S-SE winds will start to build up around Santa Barbara/Ventura around midday and then slowly push down the coast as we move through the afternoon. Look for S winds 10-15 knots on tap for most areas by sundown and then gusts hitting 25+ knots and rain arriving after midnight.
Man right back between the proverbial rock and the hard place…high dawn patrol tide and clean conditions vs dropping tide and building onshore winds…living in North OC I hate that choice, the wind almost always wins the race and waiting it out just leads to me driving around looking at blown out surf. I need to come up with a wind generator that can make it offshore all of the time…yeah I will get right on that.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/26/2010 Friday
12:49AM LST 1.4 L
06:48AM LST 6.0 H
01:54PM LST -1.2 L
08:06PM LST 4.4 H
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/25/2010
Forecast Overview
WNW-NW swell holds fun surf into Friday and then backs down into early Saturday. A new storm (with onshore winds, rain, and if we are lucky some more lightening and mudslides) pushes in on Saturday and brings a hefty, well-overhead, W-NW swell along with it. This new swell will build Saturday afternoon and then peak on Sunday before backing down slowly on Monday. Conditions should clean up late in the weekend as the storm moves out. Another, cleaner looking, W-WNW swell is scheduled to move in through the middle of next week…good times.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a bit funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.
Saturday
Stormy conditions push in along with another round of W-NW swell (275-300). The new energy will be arriving throughout the day…so we are going to start off with mostly leftovers and building local W-SW windswell…then the new swell will fill in more in the afternoon and continue to build overnight into Sunday. Look for the average spots to see poor shaped surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets on the lower tides. Standout breaks will be more in chest-head high range with overhead+ sets still mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: W-SW winds around 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts will be on tap through the morning along with rain and the potential for Thunderstorms. If winds stay more westerly don’t expect many of the usual “storm” spots to work…if winds shift more southerly there will be a few pockets that will stay manageable.
Sunday
The new W-NW swell (275-300) will peak and clean up a bit as the storm moves on out of the area. Look for most W-WNW facing spots to be in the shoulder-overhead range with some bigger sets going a few feet overhead at times. The standout NW facing spots, mostly in the Ventura, San Diego, and South Bay regions, will be in the consistent overhead+ range with sets going a few feet overhead (and maybe a bit bigger) on the lower tides. San Diego, southern SD, in particular looks like it will be very exposed to this swell mix…I will not be surprised to see some heavy double-overhead surf at the standouts breaks in the area. Winds/Weather: Not totally clean but nicer than Saturday. Sort of variable onshore texture out of the S-SW but under 5-8 knots for the morning. Look for moderate onshore flow below 10-12 knots for the afternoon.
Monday
The W-NW swell mix (275-300) will drop pretty fast on Monday but there will still be plenty of size for the exposed breaks. Average spots will drop down into the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still sneaking through. The standouts, again in the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego areas, will have surf running head high/overhead+ with sets going a couple of feet overhead…and maybe a couple of pluses through the early morning. Winds/Weather: Winds look lighter on Monday…more light and variable in the morning…not super glassy but not all that bad either. W winds 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
So lots of waves on tap for the weekend and some nasty weather too…hopefully it will push out of the area pretty fast so conditions can clean up before the swell drops too much.
Waves...
and weather...
Longer-range is still looking nice and active…remind me to send a thank-you card to El Nino…and there is another decent sized storm forecast to brew up in our swell window over the next 3-4 days. As it does it looks like we will have another overhead+ W-WNW swell lining up for the middle of the upcoming week. This new W-WNW swell (275-290) will begin to arrive on Tuesday (Mar 2) and then peak Wednesday/Thursday (Mar 3-4).
This one won’t be as raw as the weekend swell, in fact it looks like a lot more energy holding up around the 15-17 second period range which means that the swell will have a real shot at grooming out some of the fugliness. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for shoulder-overhead surf at the average WNW facing spots and sets going a few feet overhead at the standout NW facing breaks.
South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.
Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 1-2 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th. Even further out it looks like more moderate fetch forming out the back that will have some more playful S-SW swell heading our way for the first couple of weeks of March…nothing major but I am hoping that it will have enough kick to break up the steady WNW swell that we will probably be still seeing.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 1st, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
WNW-NW swell holds fun surf into Friday and then backs down into early Saturday. A new storm (with onshore winds, rain, and if we are lucky some more lightening and mudslides) pushes in on Saturday and brings a hefty, well-overhead, W-NW swell along with it. This new swell will build Saturday afternoon and then peak on Sunday before backing down slowly on Monday. Conditions should clean up late in the weekend as the storm moves out. Another, cleaner looking, W-WNW swell is scheduled to move in through the middle of next week…good times.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a bit funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.
Saturday
Stormy conditions push in along with another round of W-NW swell (275-300). The new energy will be arriving throughout the day…so we are going to start off with mostly leftovers and building local W-SW windswell…then the new swell will fill in more in the afternoon and continue to build overnight into Sunday. Look for the average spots to see poor shaped surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets on the lower tides. Standout breaks will be more in chest-head high range with overhead+ sets still mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: W-SW winds around 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts will be on tap through the morning along with rain and the potential for Thunderstorms. If winds stay more westerly don’t expect many of the usual “storm” spots to work…if winds shift more southerly there will be a few pockets that will stay manageable.
Sunday
The new W-NW swell (275-300) will peak and clean up a bit as the storm moves on out of the area. Look for most W-WNW facing spots to be in the shoulder-overhead range with some bigger sets going a few feet overhead at times. The standout NW facing spots, mostly in the Ventura, San Diego, and South Bay regions, will be in the consistent overhead+ range with sets going a few feet overhead (and maybe a bit bigger) on the lower tides. San Diego, southern SD, in particular looks like it will be very exposed to this swell mix…I will not be surprised to see some heavy double-overhead surf at the standouts breaks in the area. Winds/Weather: Not totally clean but nicer than Saturday. Sort of variable onshore texture out of the S-SW but under 5-8 knots for the morning. Look for moderate onshore flow below 10-12 knots for the afternoon.
Monday
The W-NW swell mix (275-300) will drop pretty fast on Monday but there will still be plenty of size for the exposed breaks. Average spots will drop down into the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still sneaking through. The standouts, again in the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego areas, will have surf running head high/overhead+ with sets going a couple of feet overhead…and maybe a couple of pluses through the early morning. Winds/Weather: Winds look lighter on Monday…more light and variable in the morning…not super glassy but not all that bad either. W winds 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific
So lots of waves on tap for the weekend and some nasty weather too…hopefully it will push out of the area pretty fast so conditions can clean up before the swell drops too much.
Waves...
and weather...
Longer-range is still looking nice and active…remind me to send a thank-you card to El Nino…and there is another decent sized storm forecast to brew up in our swell window over the next 3-4 days. As it does it looks like we will have another overhead+ W-WNW swell lining up for the middle of the upcoming week. This new W-WNW swell (275-290) will begin to arrive on Tuesday (Mar 2) and then peak Wednesday/Thursday (Mar 3-4).
This one won’t be as raw as the weekend swell, in fact it looks like a lot more energy holding up around the 15-17 second period range which means that the swell will have a real shot at grooming out some of the fugliness. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for shoulder-overhead surf at the average WNW facing spots and sets going a few feet overhead at the standout NW facing breaks.
South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.
Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 1-2 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th. Even further out it looks like more moderate fetch forming out the back that will have some more playful S-SW swell heading our way for the first couple of weeks of March…nothing major but I am hoping that it will have enough kick to break up the steady WNW swell that we will probably be still seeing.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 1st, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Thursday’s Surf – New WNW/SW swell and more rain out the back
Thursday is looking pretty surfable but there may be a few areas, namely Santa Barbara and Ventura, that will have some wind issues in the morning.
New mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and new SW swell (190-215) began moving in some new, long-period energy on Wednesday…adding touch more size in the afternoon but will be mostly filling in more after dark. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (Oceanside Buoy for the SW swell mix and the Harvest Buoy for the WNW-NW energy)….
The new swell mix will peak on Thursday…showing biggest at spots with good WNW-NW exposure…but setting some fun waves at the good combo spots as well. Looks like high tide will keep things soft through the morning but if winds can hold off shape and consistency will improve through midday.
Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.
A new cold-front is forecast to move through the region late tonight and then move out on Thursday…driving some early NW-N winds in a few areas. Right now it looks like Santa Barbara and Ventura will have some N-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning…possibly stronger as you get out towards Point Conception. LA, OC, and San Diego will see more light/variable winds early in the morning, maybe a chance of some pockets of onshore texture here and there…but the onshore winds are expected to push in pretty fast, likely chunking things up around midday. More rain is forecast to move in on Friday and over the weekend…hopefully we will get a chance to enjoy the swell mix before it arrives.
So we have new swell, even some combo swell, showing on Thursday…but the weather is trying to work us over. Once again we are going to be sort of caught between a high morning tide with cleaner conditions and the lower tides with building onshore winds. Personally I think that there will be enough new swell at the standout breaks that it should be able to work even with the higher tide, particularly at spots that can handle a little extra water. I am thinking about getting on it early, rolling the dice with the tide, and trying to beat the wind…I hope this works out but I am not holding my breath either.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/25/2010 Thursday
05:56AM LST 5.8 H
01:17PM LST -1.1 L
07:37PM LST 3.9 H
New mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and new SW swell (190-215) began moving in some new, long-period energy on Wednesday…adding touch more size in the afternoon but will be mostly filling in more after dark. Check out the buoys from this afternoon (Oceanside Buoy for the SW swell mix and the Harvest Buoy for the WNW-NW energy)….
The new swell mix will peak on Thursday…showing biggest at spots with good WNW-NW exposure…but setting some fun waves at the good combo spots as well. Looks like high tide will keep things soft through the morning but if winds can hold off shape and consistency will improve through midday.
Sizewise we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to be in the chest-head high range on Thursday…maybe a little smaller/less-consistent through the morning. The better WNW-NW facing breaks and excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.
A new cold-front is forecast to move through the region late tonight and then move out on Thursday…driving some early NW-N winds in a few areas. Right now it looks like Santa Barbara and Ventura will have some N-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the morning…possibly stronger as you get out towards Point Conception. LA, OC, and San Diego will see more light/variable winds early in the morning, maybe a chance of some pockets of onshore texture here and there…but the onshore winds are expected to push in pretty fast, likely chunking things up around midday. More rain is forecast to move in on Friday and over the weekend…hopefully we will get a chance to enjoy the swell mix before it arrives.
So we have new swell, even some combo swell, showing on Thursday…but the weather is trying to work us over. Once again we are going to be sort of caught between a high morning tide with cleaner conditions and the lower tides with building onshore winds. Personally I think that there will be enough new swell at the standout breaks that it should be able to work even with the higher tide, particularly at spots that can handle a little extra water. I am thinking about getting on it early, rolling the dice with the tide, and trying to beat the wind…I hope this works out but I am not holding my breath either.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/25/2010 Thursday
05:56AM LST 5.8 H
01:17PM LST -1.1 L
07:37PM LST 3.9 H
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
New Sponsor: Stamps Surfboards
Hey gang…I just wanted to give a quick shout out…we have a new sponsor!
Stamps Surfboards
Tim makes some insane boards and has a ton of different shapes… anything from stony fish shapes, to high performance shortboards, to classic single-fin longboards…he does it all.
He has a bunch of his boards up on his website along with some pretty solid descriptions of what each board is capable of and what conditions it will perform best. If you are in the market for a new board I would highly recommend shooting Tim an email or calling the shop…he will hook you up with a killer freshie. (Make sure to tell him that you saw the ads on Socalsurf.com…and give Cowboy a good scratching for me).
http://www.surfboardsbystamps.com
Anyway I just wanted to let you guys know that Tim and Stamps Surfboards are now helping to support the free Socalsurf forecast and that we are stoked to have him on board.
Cheers!
Adam
*If any of you guys are interested in becoming a sponsor/advertiser on the blog please drop me an email (caine12 at gmail.com) and I can give you the details.
Stamps Surfboards
Tim makes some insane boards and has a ton of different shapes… anything from stony fish shapes, to high performance shortboards, to classic single-fin longboards…he does it all.
He has a bunch of his boards up on his website along with some pretty solid descriptions of what each board is capable of and what conditions it will perform best. If you are in the market for a new board I would highly recommend shooting Tim an email or calling the shop…he will hook you up with a killer freshie. (Make sure to tell him that you saw the ads on Socalsurf.com…and give Cowboy a good scratching for me).
http://www.surfboardsbystamps.com
Anyway I just wanted to let you guys know that Tim and Stamps Surfboards are now helping to support the free Socalsurf forecast and that we are stoked to have him on board.
Cheers!
Adam
*If any of you guys are interested in becoming a sponsor/advertiser on the blog please drop me an email (caine12 at gmail.com) and I can give you the details.
Waves for Wednesday – Morning leftovers…more weather arriving in the afternoon
Wednesday will be a surf day…at least in the morning.
Wednesday morning we will see a mix of mostly holding leftover WNW-NW energy and a touch of SW swell holding in the background. It will actually start off a touch smaller than Tuesday but overall should still be surfable at the well exposed spots (though you might want to avoid the early morning high tide. Late in the day a new mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some new SW swell (190-215) will star to arrive…not showing much before dark, but possibly putting a couple of new lines into the top WNW and SW facing breaks before the sun sets.
For the morning…we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to hold in the knee-waist high range. Standout WNW-NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets mixing in on the lower tides.
Not much change for the afternoon but I would keep an eye on the NW facing breaks there may be a few bigger waves (or at least more consistent sets) starting to sneak in, particularly up around Ventura/Santa Barbara.
Winds will be pretty clean for the morning…sort of light/variable for most areas and a few pockets of E-NE winds near the passes and canyons. Look for building W-SW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon with some stronger near 20+ knot gusts hitting up around Point Conception as a new cold front arrives. Expect cloudy skies and a chance for rain later in the day.
So again nothing outstanding on tap for Wednesday…just fun, sort of soft, leftovers showing most areas and a few faster sections at the well exposed spots that can handle a little extra high tide. I would try and surf through the first half of the day…the approaching front is supposed to break down conditions pretty quickly by the afternoon evening. Personally I am going to shoot for midmorning…and hope the dropping tide wins the race against the wind/rain.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/24/2010 Wednesday
04:57AM LST 5.3 H
12:38PM LST -0.7 L
07:10PM LST 3.5 H
11:54PM LST 2.0 L
Wednesday morning we will see a mix of mostly holding leftover WNW-NW energy and a touch of SW swell holding in the background. It will actually start off a touch smaller than Tuesday but overall should still be surfable at the well exposed spots (though you might want to avoid the early morning high tide. Late in the day a new mix of WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some new SW swell (190-215) will star to arrive…not showing much before dark, but possibly putting a couple of new lines into the top WNW and SW facing breaks before the sun sets.
For the morning…we can expect the average WNW facing spots and the good combo breaks to hold in the knee-waist high range. Standout WNW-NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets mixing in on the lower tides.
Not much change for the afternoon but I would keep an eye on the NW facing breaks there may be a few bigger waves (or at least more consistent sets) starting to sneak in, particularly up around Ventura/Santa Barbara.
Winds will be pretty clean for the morning…sort of light/variable for most areas and a few pockets of E-NE winds near the passes and canyons. Look for building W-SW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon with some stronger near 20+ knot gusts hitting up around Point Conception as a new cold front arrives. Expect cloudy skies and a chance for rain later in the day.
So again nothing outstanding on tap for Wednesday…just fun, sort of soft, leftovers showing most areas and a few faster sections at the well exposed spots that can handle a little extra high tide. I would try and surf through the first half of the day…the approaching front is supposed to break down conditions pretty quickly by the afternoon evening. Personally I am going to shoot for midmorning…and hope the dropping tide wins the race against the wind/rain.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/24/2010 Wednesday
04:57AM LST 5.3 H
12:38PM LST -0.7 L
07:10PM LST 3.5 H
11:54PM LST 2.0 L
Transworld SURF Forecast Update – The hits just keep on coming…and a little El Nino update too
Hey gang the latest forecast has just been updated over on Transworld SURF…lots of activity still swirling around the North Pacific and more solid waves on tap for Hawaii and the West Coast.
I even go over the latest el nino update and what it might mean for the spring.
Check it out when you get a chance...
http://surf.transworld.net/1000096987/features/west-coast-hawaii-weekly-surf-forecast/
I even go over the latest el nino update and what it might mean for the spring.
Check it out when you get a chance...
http://surf.transworld.net/1000096987/features/west-coast-hawaii-weekly-surf-forecast/
Monday, February 22, 2010
Tuesday’s Surf – Cleaning up…with a few waves still out there
Tuesday will be a surf day.
Conditions clean up on Tuesday and we should still have enough swell in the water to get out and ride a few at the better exposed breaks. WNW-NW swell (280-300) that showed over the weekend continues to fade out while small SW energy holds in the background.
Sizewise…most WNW-NW facing spots and the good combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range…mostly on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a chance at some bigger sets at the best combo spots in San Diego (which has a little more exposure to the NW swell).
Winds will be clean in the morning with mostly light and variable to light offshore flow on tap for most areas. Look for the winds to stay light through midmorning before slowly shifting onshore out of the WNW-NW by the afternoon. Expect WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots for most exposed spots by the afternoon.
So not super exciting for Tuesday…just not that much swell in the water…but with the cleaner conditions and enough energy to ride I do think that we can find a few fun ones here and there. I would probably stick with your smaller wave gear or good all-round board for most spots…maybe a faster shape if you live down in SD. I would try and get on it early because the nice winds won’t hold together forever and it will be cleaner the earlier you head out.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/23/2010 Tuesday
03:44AM LST 4.9 H
11:54AM LST -0.2 L
06:46PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.5 L
Conditions clean up on Tuesday and we should still have enough swell in the water to get out and ride a few at the better exposed breaks. WNW-NW swell (280-300) that showed over the weekend continues to fade out while small SW energy holds in the background.
Sizewise…most WNW-NW facing spots and the good combo breaks will be in the waist-chest high range…mostly on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a chance at some bigger sets at the best combo spots in San Diego (which has a little more exposure to the NW swell).
Winds will be clean in the morning with mostly light and variable to light offshore flow on tap for most areas. Look for the winds to stay light through midmorning before slowly shifting onshore out of the WNW-NW by the afternoon. Expect WNW-NW winds around 10-14 knots for most exposed spots by the afternoon.
So not super exciting for Tuesday…just not that much swell in the water…but with the cleaner conditions and enough energy to ride I do think that we can find a few fun ones here and there. I would probably stick with your smaller wave gear or good all-round board for most spots…maybe a faster shape if you live down in SD. I would try and get on it early because the nice winds won’t hold together forever and it will be cleaner the earlier you head out.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/23/2010 Tuesday
03:44AM LST 4.9 H
11:54AM LST -0.2 L
06:46PM LST 3.1 H
10:44PM LST 2.5 L
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/22/2010
Forecast Overview
Look for fading WNW-NW swell and some background SW energy for the next couple of days...cleaner conditions as well. New WNW-NW swell and more SW energy move in on Thursday and peak into Friday. More waves and it looks like more funky weather on tap for the upcoming weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
WNW-NW swell (280-300) fades out while small SW energy holds in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Conditions clean up on Tuesday morning with winds going light/variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds 10-14 knots to develop by the afternoon.
Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW swell will hold…not really dropping much further…but not all that big either. SW swell continues to linger in the background. Look for most spots in the knee-waist high range while the standouts see some waist-chest high+ sets…maybe bigger at the really good combo spots. Winds/Weather: Winds stay light through midweek…look for light and variable morning flow with some areas of light offshore winds in the early morning. WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.
Thursday
New WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts filling in throughout the day while a new SW swell (200-220) also begins to pulse up in the background. Most spots will build into the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing on the lower tides. Standout WNW-NW facing spots…mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high surf with sets going overhead to a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Winds get a little squirrely…light-moderate onshore flow sets up through OC and SD for the morning and we see sort of funky S-SE flow in areas from LA up through Santa Barbara. Winds should be below 10-knots for the morning but building S flow will increase through the afternoon.
Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a be funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still plenty of energy sloshing around the North Pacific in the long-range forecast…like much of the winter we are still seeing storms forming around the mid-upper latitudes mostly between Hawaii and the West Coast…that will do a good job producing WNW-NW swell for Socal but will also manage to bring some funky weather along with them as well, fortunately the breaks in the weather are getting further and further apart so we should have some clean days slipping in before and after each front passes through.
We are going to see slowly fading WNW energy for the first couple of days this week…but a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will start to push in later on Wednesday, eventually peaking Thursday afternoon into Friday. This swell looks good for more chest-head high surf at the average WNW spots and overhead surf at the standout WNW-NW breaks. This will fade out slowly on Saturday but another round of, potentially stronger WNW swell will be on tap for Sunday/Monday (Feb 28-Mar 1)
Further out the forecast model is calling for a pretty significant increase in storm activity by later in the upcoming weekend. If these storms can live up to forecasts we should see another round of hefty WNW-NW swell heading out way for the first few days in March (probably around March 3-4th) these still have a few days to form but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on them.
South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.
Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 4-5 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 25th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Look for fading WNW-NW swell and some background SW energy for the next couple of days...cleaner conditions as well. New WNW-NW swell and more SW energy move in on Thursday and peak into Friday. More waves and it looks like more funky weather on tap for the upcoming weekend.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday
WNW-NW swell (280-300) fades out while small SW energy holds in the background. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Conditions clean up on Tuesday morning with winds going light/variable to light offshore for most areas. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds 10-14 knots to develop by the afternoon.
Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW swell will hold…not really dropping much further…but not all that big either. SW swell continues to linger in the background. Look for most spots in the knee-waist high range while the standouts see some waist-chest high+ sets…maybe bigger at the really good combo spots. Winds/Weather: Winds stay light through midweek…look for light and variable morning flow with some areas of light offshore winds in the early morning. WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.
Thursday
New WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts filling in throughout the day while a new SW swell (200-220) also begins to pulse up in the background. Most spots will build into the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets showing on the lower tides. Standout WNW-NW facing spots…mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high surf with sets going overhead to a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Winds get a little squirrely…light-moderate onshore flow sets up through OC and SD for the morning and we see sort of funky S-SE flow in areas from LA up through Santa Barbara. Winds should be below 10-knots for the morning but building S flow will increase through the afternoon.
Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a be funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.
Long-Range
North Pacific
Still plenty of energy sloshing around the North Pacific in the long-range forecast…like much of the winter we are still seeing storms forming around the mid-upper latitudes mostly between Hawaii and the West Coast…that will do a good job producing WNW-NW swell for Socal but will also manage to bring some funky weather along with them as well, fortunately the breaks in the weather are getting further and further apart so we should have some clean days slipping in before and after each front passes through.
We are going to see slowly fading WNW energy for the first couple of days this week…but a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) will start to push in later on Wednesday, eventually peaking Thursday afternoon into Friday. This swell looks good for more chest-head high surf at the average WNW spots and overhead surf at the standout WNW-NW breaks. This will fade out slowly on Saturday but another round of, potentially stronger WNW swell will be on tap for Sunday/Monday (Feb 28-Mar 1)
Further out the forecast model is calling for a pretty significant increase in storm activity by later in the upcoming weekend. If these storms can live up to forecasts we should see another round of hefty WNW-NW swell heading out way for the first few days in March (probably around March 3-4th) these still have a few days to form but it will definitely be worth keeping an eye on them.
South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.
Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 4-5 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 25th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Monday’s Slop – More wind and junky swell
Monday does not look like a surf day.
We are going to have mix of fading WNW-NW swell from the weekend, building local WNW windswell, and some background SW energy. The windswell looks pretty hacked up with most of the energy in the 5-6 second range (which is getting almost to short to surf) and the longer-period swells are getting pretty weak…so the combo of the sloppy/weird swell mix and onshore winds isn’t going to be doing our surf any favors. The CDIP forecast makes it look better than it is going to be.
Sizewise the average spots can expect surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest high+ sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks, mostly in the well exposed areas of Southern SD, will have surf more in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets still mixing in at times. Surf shape is going to be pretty poor…onshore chop and funky swell periods will keep things from ever being very surfable.
Wind looks poor on Monday. W winds 10-20 knots will be on tap for the morning…strongest from LA up through Santa Barbara and a little lighter in OC/SD. Winds are expected to increase…15-25 knots for the afternoon. Unfortunately there are not many places to hide from the W winds.
If the wind lives up to forecasts, and the rain that they have in there comes through, then I think tomorrow is going to pretty much be a write off. If we have a shot at surf it will be early in the morning…but I wouldn’t waste any gas checking it…just check out the winds and if they are anywhere out of the West then go back to bed.
No regional forecasts this afternoon…I am pretty much counting on it being sucktacular tomorrow.
Here are the tides…
02/22/2010 Monday (weird tide day too)
02:16AM LST 4.6 H
10:56AM LST 0.4 L
We are going to have mix of fading WNW-NW swell from the weekend, building local WNW windswell, and some background SW energy. The windswell looks pretty hacked up with most of the energy in the 5-6 second range (which is getting almost to short to surf) and the longer-period swells are getting pretty weak…so the combo of the sloppy/weird swell mix and onshore winds isn’t going to be doing our surf any favors. The CDIP forecast makes it look better than it is going to be.
Sizewise the average spots can expect surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest high+ sets on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks, mostly in the well exposed areas of Southern SD, will have surf more in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets still mixing in at times. Surf shape is going to be pretty poor…onshore chop and funky swell periods will keep things from ever being very surfable.
Wind looks poor on Monday. W winds 10-20 knots will be on tap for the morning…strongest from LA up through Santa Barbara and a little lighter in OC/SD. Winds are expected to increase…15-25 knots for the afternoon. Unfortunately there are not many places to hide from the W winds.
If the wind lives up to forecasts, and the rain that they have in there comes through, then I think tomorrow is going to pretty much be a write off. If we have a shot at surf it will be early in the morning…but I wouldn’t waste any gas checking it…just check out the winds and if they are anywhere out of the West then go back to bed.
No regional forecasts this afternoon…I am pretty much counting on it being sucktacular tomorrow.
Here are the tides…
02/22/2010 Monday (weird tide day too)
02:16AM LST 4.6 H
10:56AM LST 0.4 L
Friday, February 19, 2010
Waves for the Weekend – Funky Chicken and more rain
At first glance this doesn’t look like a surf weekend…but there may be a little wriggle-room (surf-room) Saturday morning.
Overall this weekend looks pretty sloppy…sure there will be some new stormy W swell but the winds are forecast to stay onshore out of the west pretty much the whole weekend and bring another inch+ of rain to the coastal areas. The swell, really a WSW-W-WNW swell mix (260-300), will be arriving fast Friday evening and will eventually peak Saturday afternoon and on into Sunday.
Here are the swell forecasts for both days…
Saturday
Sunday
Sizewise, once the swell starts to peak on Saturday afternoon, I am expecting surf in the shoulder-head high range for most of the average W facing breaks. The standout spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a few feet overhead at times. These waves will hold overnight into Sunday…and then fade slowly as we move into Monday.
Weather in general will be pretty junky this weekend…but check out the wind/weather models for Saturday morning…
The COAMPS is calling for steady, sort of nasty looking, W winds for the morning…
But the NWS/NOAA models are showing some lighter morning winds and even a bit of circulation putting S-SE winds going semi-offshore in a few areas.
Personally I don’t believe either model all that much…they both have been a little aggressive in estimating how fast a storm will push through our area during our last few systems. Generally the storms have come in later and slower moving than these models have predicted…I have a feeling that actual conditions are going to be somewhere in the middle of those two. That being said I think that Saturday morning will be our best chance for surf…just don’t commit a lot of time to trying to get to the beach. I would give the cams a check in the morning…maybe check out the live winds if you can…and make sure that, even if the wind is light, that there isn’t a bunch of funk still on the water.
The models both agree that Sunday will be windier…W winds around 10-15 knots with gusts still topping out around 20 knots in some areas.
So the weekend doesn’t look all that good…the weather is going to do a lot to screw up conditions/surf-shape. Add in the “even more rain” factor and junky sloppy surf, with poor water quality, just doesn’t sound that inviting. I would still try and keep an eye on Saturday morning…but don’t hold your breath.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/20/2010 Saturday
12:02AM LST 4.5 H
07:37AM LST 1.2 L
01:19PM LST 2.4 H
05:32PM LST 1.9 L
02/21/2010 Sunday
12:56AM LST 4.5 H
09:25AM LST 0.9 L
Overall this weekend looks pretty sloppy…sure there will be some new stormy W swell but the winds are forecast to stay onshore out of the west pretty much the whole weekend and bring another inch+ of rain to the coastal areas. The swell, really a WSW-W-WNW swell mix (260-300), will be arriving fast Friday evening and will eventually peak Saturday afternoon and on into Sunday.
Here are the swell forecasts for both days…
Saturday
Sunday
Sizewise, once the swell starts to peak on Saturday afternoon, I am expecting surf in the shoulder-head high range for most of the average W facing breaks. The standout spots will be shoulder-overhead with sets going a few feet overhead at times. These waves will hold overnight into Sunday…and then fade slowly as we move into Monday.
Weather in general will be pretty junky this weekend…but check out the wind/weather models for Saturday morning…
The COAMPS is calling for steady, sort of nasty looking, W winds for the morning…
But the NWS/NOAA models are showing some lighter morning winds and even a bit of circulation putting S-SE winds going semi-offshore in a few areas.
Personally I don’t believe either model all that much…they both have been a little aggressive in estimating how fast a storm will push through our area during our last few systems. Generally the storms have come in later and slower moving than these models have predicted…I have a feeling that actual conditions are going to be somewhere in the middle of those two. That being said I think that Saturday morning will be our best chance for surf…just don’t commit a lot of time to trying to get to the beach. I would give the cams a check in the morning…maybe check out the live winds if you can…and make sure that, even if the wind is light, that there isn’t a bunch of funk still on the water.
The models both agree that Sunday will be windier…W winds around 10-15 knots with gusts still topping out around 20 knots in some areas.
So the weekend doesn’t look all that good…the weather is going to do a lot to screw up conditions/surf-shape. Add in the “even more rain” factor and junky sloppy surf, with poor water quality, just doesn’t sound that inviting. I would still try and keep an eye on Saturday morning…but don’t hold your breath.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/20/2010 Saturday
12:02AM LST 4.5 H
07:37AM LST 1.2 L
01:19PM LST 2.4 H
05:32PM LST 1.9 L
02/21/2010 Sunday
12:56AM LST 4.5 H
09:25AM LST 0.9 L
Transworld SURF Forecast – NW swell for Hawaii and more weather for the West Coast
Hey gang…the latest forecast is posted over at Transworld SURF…check it out when you get a chance. (I know that the surf sucks today so you don’t really have an excuse.)
http://surf.transworld.net/1000096703/features/west-coast-and-hawaii-weekend-surf-forecast-6/
http://surf.transworld.net/1000096703/features/west-coast-and-hawaii-weekend-surf-forecast-6/
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Surf for Friday – Small with building S winds
Friday doesn’t look like much of a surf day.
The morning looks pretty small…just some leftover WNW-NW energy and touch of smaller SW energy (200-220) that holds in the background. There will be some new WSW-NW energy, mostly stormy/windswell, that begins arriving in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon but it won’t show to much new surf before sundown.
Look for most spots to see surf in the knee high range with some waist high sets during the tide push. The better WNW/SW combo spots will be a touch bigger…more knee-waist high with some inconsistent chest high sections. It will be the most consistent through the morning dawn patrol but the high tide will start to kill it pretty fast.
Look for S-winds around 5-8 knots spinning up in the morning…sort of S-SW around Santa Barbara and Ventura and more S-SE’erly in LA, OC, and SD. These winds will increase and turn more SW’erly for all areas throughout the day…hitting 10-20 knots by the afternoon/evening. Look for rain showers to move in throughout the day…getting strongest overnight into Saturday.
There isn’t really enough swell for it to be very rideable tomorrow…add in the S wind texture and the building tide and it looks like the wheels will start to come off by midmorning/midday. If you need to surf I would bust out the log and try and find a spot during the dawn patrol that has some protection from the South winds…personally I am going to be surfing my pillow for a little extra shuteye.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county…you aren’t going to learn anything new but it sure makes me feel good to see traffic on those pages.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/19/2010 Friday
06:18AM LST 1.2 L
11:50AM LST 2.9 H
05:16PM LST 1.5 L
The morning looks pretty small…just some leftover WNW-NW energy and touch of smaller SW energy (200-220) that holds in the background. There will be some new WSW-NW energy, mostly stormy/windswell, that begins arriving in Santa Barbara and Ventura late in the afternoon but it won’t show to much new surf before sundown.
Look for most spots to see surf in the knee high range with some waist high sets during the tide push. The better WNW/SW combo spots will be a touch bigger…more knee-waist high with some inconsistent chest high sections. It will be the most consistent through the morning dawn patrol but the high tide will start to kill it pretty fast.
Look for S-winds around 5-8 knots spinning up in the morning…sort of S-SW around Santa Barbara and Ventura and more S-SE’erly in LA, OC, and SD. These winds will increase and turn more SW’erly for all areas throughout the day…hitting 10-20 knots by the afternoon/evening. Look for rain showers to move in throughout the day…getting strongest overnight into Saturday.
There isn’t really enough swell for it to be very rideable tomorrow…add in the S wind texture and the building tide and it looks like the wheels will start to come off by midmorning/midday. If you need to surf I would bust out the log and try and find a spot during the dawn patrol that has some protection from the South winds…personally I am going to be surfing my pillow for a little extra shuteye.
Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county…you aren’t going to learn anything new but it sure makes me feel good to see traffic on those pages.
Regional/County Forecasts
Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast
Here are the tides…
02/19/2010 Friday
06:18AM LST 1.2 L
11:50AM LST 2.9 H
05:16PM LST 1.5 L
Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/18/2010
Forecast Overview
Friday will start off on the small side, but building WSW-NW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon along with more wind and rain. Look for stormy overhead (and bigger) surf to hold through Saturday peak overnight into Sunday. Sloppy conditions on Saturday and then we see some marginal clean-up on Sunday as the region gets a short break before yet another storm arrives. Look for periods of storminess to continue through most of next week.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Friday will start small with just some weak leftovers on tap for the morning. Look for the average spots to see surf in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. New WSW-WNW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon but it looks like conditions will be pretty ugly so it may have a hard time breaking through the local chop. Winds/Weather: S-winds and increasing chances of rain moving through the area in the morning. S winds will likely be in the 10-12 knot range for most areas with some pockets nearing 13-15+ knots. S-SW winds around 15-20 knots will push through in the afternoon gradually turning more westerly later in the evening.
Saturday
New stormy WSW-W-WNW swell hits on Saturday but the storm comes along with it. It looks like steady W winds and just nasty chopped up shape at this point…so definitely not a surf day. If it was surfable we would see waves in the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout W facing breaks. Winds/Weather: W winds 15-25 knots on tap throughout the day. Rain on tap for the morning…showers and more rain pushing through in the afternoon.
Sunday
The stormy W-WNW swell will continue to peak on Sunday…and the weather will start to break a bit…unfortunately it is only breaking because a second front is expected to push through the region. Look for more overhead to well overhead surf at the well exposed spots…but shape is going to be pretty jumbled up in most areas. This is one of those days (if you don’t mind the water quality) that you might want to keep a weather eye on local conditions…if the new front jumps the right way we could get some S-SE winds before it arrives, which could clean up a few spots.
Monday
The lump of W-NW storm/swell (notice that the swell direction changes as the storm moves through the local waters) will be dropping but there will still be plenty of head-high surf for the average spots and overhead+ waves at the standouts. Again conditions look pretty crap…NW winds at 15 knots are forecast for the morning…and then another cold-front arrives with shifting S winds and more rain by late in the day.
Long-Range
North Pacific
A new stormy WSW-NW swell mix will hit over the weekend as a series of storms roll over Southern California bringing both wind and rain.
This is another one of those weekends where the forecast is pretty dynamic…each cold-front is going to affect how the following one behaves so none of the models are syncing up that well. In some ways this may open some small surf opportunities for us…we will get plenty of new swell, lots of overhead waves at the top spots, and the fronts will cycle the winds around as each one approaches…with Southerly winds before the storm and W-NW winds as it passes. While I wouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to hunt down surf…I would, if you live close, keep an eye on conditions and see if the winds possibly switch to a more favorable direction.
Further Out The stormy trend looks like it will stick around for a lot of next week…the current weather models are showing a whole train of storms just stacking up across the mid-latitudes of the NPAC...most of which will be tracking right into Socal over the next 7-8 days. There may be a few pockets of cleaner conditions in-between systems, but the gaps won’t be that long…so we won’t have much time to dry out before the next round of storminess starts. At this point it looks like consistent head high and overhead surf for the better W facing beaches for most of next week…but conditions will be suspect at best. I am hoping that the first couple of storms help the models shift around and that we see a break sooner than the current run is forecasting.
South Pacific
Not a lot of changes out there right now… we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th, that fades out as we head into the weekend, and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing around the 20-21st.
Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th. Even further out the SPAC does start to pick up a bit more…possibly setting up some more playful SW energy for around the beginning of March.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 22th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
Friday will start off on the small side, but building WSW-NW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon along with more wind and rain. Look for stormy overhead (and bigger) surf to hold through Saturday peak overnight into Sunday. Sloppy conditions on Saturday and then we see some marginal clean-up on Sunday as the region gets a short break before yet another storm arrives. Look for periods of storminess to continue through most of next week.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
Friday will start small with just some weak leftovers on tap for the morning. Look for the average spots to see surf in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. New WSW-WNW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon but it looks like conditions will be pretty ugly so it may have a hard time breaking through the local chop. Winds/Weather: S-winds and increasing chances of rain moving through the area in the morning. S winds will likely be in the 10-12 knot range for most areas with some pockets nearing 13-15+ knots. S-SW winds around 15-20 knots will push through in the afternoon gradually turning more westerly later in the evening.
Saturday
New stormy WSW-W-WNW swell hits on Saturday but the storm comes along with it. It looks like steady W winds and just nasty chopped up shape at this point…so definitely not a surf day. If it was surfable we would see waves in the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout W facing breaks. Winds/Weather: W winds 15-25 knots on tap throughout the day. Rain on tap for the morning…showers and more rain pushing through in the afternoon.
Sunday
The stormy W-WNW swell will continue to peak on Sunday…and the weather will start to break a bit…unfortunately it is only breaking because a second front is expected to push through the region. Look for more overhead to well overhead surf at the well exposed spots…but shape is going to be pretty jumbled up in most areas. This is one of those days (if you don’t mind the water quality) that you might want to keep a weather eye on local conditions…if the new front jumps the right way we could get some S-SE winds before it arrives, which could clean up a few spots.
Monday
The lump of W-NW storm/swell (notice that the swell direction changes as the storm moves through the local waters) will be dropping but there will still be plenty of head-high surf for the average spots and overhead+ waves at the standouts. Again conditions look pretty crap…NW winds at 15 knots are forecast for the morning…and then another cold-front arrives with shifting S winds and more rain by late in the day.
Long-Range
North Pacific
A new stormy WSW-NW swell mix will hit over the weekend as a series of storms roll over Southern California bringing both wind and rain.
This is another one of those weekends where the forecast is pretty dynamic…each cold-front is going to affect how the following one behaves so none of the models are syncing up that well. In some ways this may open some small surf opportunities for us…we will get plenty of new swell, lots of overhead waves at the top spots, and the fronts will cycle the winds around as each one approaches…with Southerly winds before the storm and W-NW winds as it passes. While I wouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to hunt down surf…I would, if you live close, keep an eye on conditions and see if the winds possibly switch to a more favorable direction.
Further Out The stormy trend looks like it will stick around for a lot of next week…the current weather models are showing a whole train of storms just stacking up across the mid-latitudes of the NPAC...most of which will be tracking right into Socal over the next 7-8 days. There may be a few pockets of cleaner conditions in-between systems, but the gaps won’t be that long…so we won’t have much time to dry out before the next round of storminess starts. At this point it looks like consistent head high and overhead surf for the better W facing beaches for most of next week…but conditions will be suspect at best. I am hoping that the first couple of storms help the models shift around and that we see a break sooner than the current run is forecasting.
South Pacific
Not a lot of changes out there right now… we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th, that fades out as we head into the weekend, and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing around the 20-21st.
Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th. Even further out the SPAC does start to pick up a bit more…possibly setting up some more playful SW energy for around the beginning of March.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 22th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
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