Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/25/2010

Forecast Overview

WNW-NW swell holds fun surf into Friday and then backs down into early Saturday. A new storm (with onshore winds, rain, and if we are lucky some more lightening and mudslides) pushes in on Saturday and brings a hefty, well-overhead, W-NW swell along with it. This new swell will build Saturday afternoon and then peak on Sunday before backing down slowly on Monday. Conditions should clean up late in the weekend as the storm moves out. Another, cleaner looking, W-WNW swell is scheduled to move in through the middle of next week…good times.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) and background SW swell (200-220) will hold but weather will start to get a bit funky. Wave heights will continue in the chest-head high range at the average WNW/combo spots. Standout breaks hold around shoulder-head high+ with overhead sets. Winds/Weather: Another front is expected to push through the area on Friday soooo winds are a bit tied to how that front behaves…current forecasts are calling for light winds through the morning but steadily building WNW-NW flow arriving by midmorning and continuing to strengthen through the day…chance of rain moving in as well.



Saturday
Stormy conditions push in along with another round of W-NW swell (275-300). The new energy will be arriving throughout the day…so we are going to start off with mostly leftovers and building local W-SW windswell…then the new swell will fill in more in the afternoon and continue to build overnight into Sunday. Look for the average spots to see poor shaped surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets on the lower tides. Standout breaks will be more in chest-head high range with overhead+ sets still mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: W-SW winds around 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts will be on tap through the morning along with rain and the potential for Thunderstorms. If winds stay more westerly don’t expect many of the usual “storm” spots to work…if winds shift more southerly there will be a few pockets that will stay manageable.



Sunday
The new W-NW swell (275-300) will peak and clean up a bit as the storm moves on out of the area. Look for most W-WNW facing spots to be in the shoulder-overhead range with some bigger sets going a few feet overhead at times. The standout NW facing spots, mostly in the Ventura, San Diego, and South Bay regions, will be in the consistent overhead+ range with sets going a few feet overhead (and maybe a bit bigger) on the lower tides. San Diego, southern SD, in particular looks like it will be very exposed to this swell mix…I will not be surprised to see some heavy double-overhead surf at the standouts breaks in the area. Winds/Weather: Not totally clean but nicer than Saturday. Sort of variable onshore texture out of the S-SW but under 5-8 knots for the morning. Look for moderate onshore flow below 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Monday
The W-NW swell mix (275-300) will drop pretty fast on Monday but there will still be plenty of size for the exposed breaks. Average spots will drop down into the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still sneaking through. The standouts, again in the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego areas, will have surf running head high/overhead+ with sets going a couple of feet overhead…and maybe a couple of pluses through the early morning. Winds/Weather: Winds look lighter on Monday…more light and variable in the morning…not super glassy but not all that bad either. W winds 10-15 knots will build in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
So lots of waves on tap for the weekend and some nasty weather too…hopefully it will push out of the area pretty fast so conditions can clean up before the swell drops too much.

Waves...


and weather...


Longer-range is still looking nice and active…remind me to send a thank-you card to El Nino…and there is another decent sized storm forecast to brew up in our swell window over the next 3-4 days. As it does it looks like we will have another overhead+ W-WNW swell lining up for the middle of the upcoming week. This new W-WNW swell (275-290) will begin to arrive on Tuesday (Mar 2) and then peak Wednesday/Thursday (Mar 3-4).



This one won’t be as raw as the weekend swell, in fact it looks like a lot more energy holding up around the 15-17 second period range which means that the swell will have a real shot at grooming out some of the fugliness. At this point it looks like this swell will be good for shoulder-overhead surf at the average WNW facing spots and sets going a few feet overhead at the standout NW facing breaks.

South Pacific
The South Pacific is starting to get a little more active…nothing like the North Pacific…but enough to send some slightly better looking SW pulses our direction. We have some small energy that will hold for the next few days and a waist-chest high+ SW pulse that arrives on Thursday the 25th and peaks into Friday before slowly fading out over the weekend.



Further out there is some good interaction between the tropical-subtropical activity (forming up around Fiji and Northern New Zealand) and the colder, high-latitude storm track just of Antarctica. The tropical energy is bleeding off to the south which is letting the SPAC cauldron get all bubbly…which is my very scientific description of storms making the south-north movements that help establish better areas of fetch for our region. If the current forecast can hold together we should see a decent area of fetch developing in about 1-2 days…which would send us a new round of chest-shoulder high+ SSW-SW swell (190-215) for around March 4-6th. Even further out it looks like more moderate fetch forming out the back that will have some more playful S-SW swell heading our way for the first couple of weeks of March…nothing major but I am hoping that it will have enough kick to break up the steady WNW swell that we will probably be still seeing.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 1st, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Transworld SURF Forecast – NW swell for Hawaii and more weather for the West Coast

Hey gang…the latest forecast is posted over at Transworld SURF…check it out when you get a chance. (I know that the surf sucks today so you don’t really have an excuse.)

http://surf.transworld.net/1000096703/features/west-coast-and-hawaii-weekend-surf-forecast-6/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/18/2010

Forecast Overview

Friday will start off on the small side, but building WSW-NW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon along with more wind and rain. Look for stormy overhead (and bigger) surf to hold through Saturday peak overnight into Sunday. Sloppy conditions on Saturday and then we see some marginal clean-up on Sunday as the region gets a short break before yet another storm arrives. Look for periods of storminess to continue through most of next week.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
Friday will start small with just some weak leftovers on tap for the morning. Look for the average spots to see surf in the knee high range with some rare waist high sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. New WSW-WNW storm/windswell will start to arrive through the afternoon but it looks like conditions will be pretty ugly so it may have a hard time breaking through the local chop. Winds/Weather: S-winds and increasing chances of rain moving through the area in the morning. S winds will likely be in the 10-12 knot range for most areas with some pockets nearing 13-15+ knots. S-SW winds around 15-20 knots will push through in the afternoon gradually turning more westerly later in the evening.



Saturday
New stormy WSW-W-WNW swell hits on Saturday but the storm comes along with it. It looks like steady W winds and just nasty chopped up shape at this point…so definitely not a surf day. If it was surfable we would see waves in the shoulder-overhead range for most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout W facing breaks. Winds/Weather: W winds 15-25 knots on tap throughout the day. Rain on tap for the morning…showers and more rain pushing through in the afternoon.



Sunday
The stormy W-WNW swell will continue to peak on Sunday…and the weather will start to break a bit…unfortunately it is only breaking because a second front is expected to push through the region. Look for more overhead to well overhead surf at the well exposed spots…but shape is going to be pretty jumbled up in most areas. This is one of those days (if you don’t mind the water quality) that you might want to keep a weather eye on local conditions…if the new front jumps the right way we could get some S-SE winds before it arrives, which could clean up a few spots.



Monday
The lump of W-NW storm/swell (notice that the swell direction changes as the storm moves through the local waters) will be dropping but there will still be plenty of head-high surf for the average spots and overhead+ waves at the standouts. Again conditions look pretty crap…NW winds at 15 knots are forecast for the morning…and then another cold-front arrives with shifting S winds and more rain by late in the day.

Long-Range

North Pacific
A new stormy WSW-NW swell mix will hit over the weekend as a series of storms roll over Southern California bringing both wind and rain.



This is another one of those weekends where the forecast is pretty dynamic…each cold-front is going to affect how the following one behaves so none of the models are syncing up that well. In some ways this may open some small surf opportunities for us…we will get plenty of new swell, lots of overhead waves at the top spots, and the fronts will cycle the winds around as each one approaches…with Southerly winds before the storm and W-NW winds as it passes. While I wouldn’t spend a lot of time trying to hunt down surf…I would, if you live close, keep an eye on conditions and see if the winds possibly switch to a more favorable direction.



Further Out The stormy trend looks like it will stick around for a lot of next week…the current weather models are showing a whole train of storms just stacking up across the mid-latitudes of the NPAC...most of which will be tracking right into Socal over the next 7-8 days. There may be a few pockets of cleaner conditions in-between systems, but the gaps won’t be that long…so we won’t have much time to dry out before the next round of storminess starts. At this point it looks like consistent head high and overhead surf for the better W facing beaches for most of next week…but conditions will be suspect at best. I am hoping that the first couple of storms help the models shift around and that we see a break sooner than the current run is forecasting.

South Pacific
Not a lot of changes out there right now… we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th, that fades out as we head into the weekend, and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing around the 20-21st.



Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th. Even further out the SPAC does start to pick up a bit more…possibly setting up some more playful SW energy for around the beginning of March.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, February 22th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 2/15/2010

Forecast Overview

Our W-NW swell will start backing off on Tuesday and will continue a slow fade through the end of the week along with our background SW swell. Expect fun surf and clean/warm/sunny conditions through Tuesday and then cooler (but still clean) weather through the end of the week. Small SW reinforcement arrives Thursday and it looks like more W swell and bad weather on tap for next weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
The W-NW swell and the background SW swell will start to wind down on Tuesday but there will continue to be plenty of waves for the exposed spots. Look for the average W-NW and ok combo breaks to see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets still pushing through on the lower tides. Standout NW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego, will have surf more in the shoulder-overhead range with sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times during the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds and weather will be nice…cool, light offshore winds will be on tap for the morning and then just moderate WNW-NW flow around 10-13 knots for the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and warm beach temps as well.



Wednesday
The mix of W-NW and SW swell will continue to drop. Average exposed breaks drop to about waist-shoulder high while the top WNW-NW breaks see some chest-head high surf. The standout breaks may have a few inconsistently bigger sets on the early morning low tides. Winds/Weather: Light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just moderate onshore flow W-NW around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Thursday
The last of the WNW-NW will limp through and we will see a new, but small, reinforcement of SW energy (200-215) fill in through the background. Most spots will drop down into the knee-chest high range. The standout NW breaks and the excellent combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on inconsistent sets. Winds/Weather: Winds still look good…mostly light and variable to light offshore for the morning and then just light W winds around 10-knots for the afternoon. Expect cooler temps as the weather starts to shift around.



Friday
Looks like the smallest day of the week at this point. Expect a weak mix of leftover WNW-NW energy and some weak SW swell. Most spots will be in the knee-knee high+ range while the standout combo spots see some waist-chest high sets. Conditions aren’t stellar either…new cold-front starts to push through the region, possibly setting up some S winds and rain as it begins to arrive. Looks like more wet weather, and possibly some new stormy W swell on tap for later in the weekend.



Long-Range

North Pacific
There is a little gap in the storm action slipping through the North Pacific storm-track right now that we will feel later this week as the current W-NW swell mix fades out and we have to wait a couple of days before something new moves into replace it. Look for overhead+ surf to continue through Tuesday and then get progressively smaller as we head towards Friday.

Further out there still are more storms sloshing around the North Pacific…they just took a short break between swells after that last one punched through. At this point I am seeing another deep, complex low-pressure setting up shop just to the south of the Aleutians that will send another large WNW-NW swell to Hawaii and in the process begin pushing some more mid-latitude storm action towards the West Coast.



If these storms can live up to the current forecast we will start to see new WSW-W-WNW swell arriving through the day on Saturday (Feb 20) and then peaking Sunday/Monday (Feb 21-22) with more overhead surf at the well exposed spots.



Unfortunately it looks like we might see these storms make a run all the way to the coast which means even though we start to see new swell the weather will likely be coming along with it. Cross your fingers that we just get the waves and not the weather...I am not sure I can stand anymore rainy/poo-water weekends.



South Pacific
There hasn’t been a whole lot of storm activity down in the SPAC after that better-looking last storm brewed up…oh it hasn’t been totally calm down there but nothing that has pulled together has been very interesting. Long-range right now looks like we will see another round of knee-chest high SW swell (200-220) arriving on the 17-18th and possibly a couple of similar (or smaller) swells showing after that.

Further out There is a bigger storm that is set to form below New Zealand over the next several days…sort of an ugly extra-tropical bad-boy being fed by the cyclone just to the south of Fiji that has the potential to send us some more chest-shoulder high SW swell for the 25-27th…but it still has a lot of development to go before it can send us waves.



Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, February 18th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/