Just did a quick beach check this morning and couldn’t find much of anything…and looking out over the outer buoys it looks like that new WNW swell is going to be quite a bit smaller, on Sunday and Monday, than I was anticipating…which sucks in a lot of ways.
I can already see where both I (and a couple of the forecast computer models) overestimated how much the storm would be able to capitalize on existing sea-state…and sort of glossed over the fact that the storm petered out in place rather than moving towards us, which is great in all but doesn’t change the fact that I am pissed that the swell isn’t showing this morning, and when it does fill in it will be smaller than I was calling for.
If that wasn’t enough a weak ripple in the local weather cropped up overnight bringing increasing onshore winds to chunk up already burgery leftover swell that is being swamped by the tide. So it is smaller, crappier, and swampier…all of which is a good reason to stay in bed this morning.
The swell does fill in a bit more this afternoon and the tide drops as well but it looks like the wind is going to funk it up and come onshore around 10-14 knots out of the NW. If you need to surf wait till later in the day and try and pick a winter spot that is protected from the wind.
Damn…I wanted to surf today too.
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16 comments:
You're fired.
"swell isn’t showing this morning, and when it does fill in it will be smaller than I was calling for."
what else is new Adam WRONG!
Adam is not God! The dude can be wrong sometimes. chill out, guys! if you can do a better job, then start your own freakin blog!
I went out to El Porto this morning, and it was as you described. Went to Sunset, sheltered from the NW winds, and it wasn't bad. Good advice!
Surfing is about expectation, anyway.
AW,
The short bus kids are back on your case after forgetting their Rialin and the fact metereorology is an inexact scinece.
Big props for the update and honesty about your forecast being updated by mother nature, the most fickle of ladies.
Surfwhine and sWetgland never own up to their errors or have the decency to eplain them and they probably are the posting posers right here on your bog.
Forget the windowlickers, you are very much apreciated and thankyou!
Shaka!
Coconutz!
Ritalin not Rialin
I'm kidding of course. And Adam is God!
Please do continue to keep up the good work with the blog. Even though it spreads misinformation. ;)
After 3 days of excellent waves (that last swell hit N OC Thursday at lunch), Sunday laid a big turd.
From RJs to BC, I don't think I've seen conditions so miserable. It looked like the muddy backwaters of the SF Bay during a storm.
The sheer number of surfers milling about along the PCH in the early dark dawn was one of saddest sights I've seen in my surf life.
I guess there was a silver lining: with thousands having nothing left to do but go get breakfast, the local restaurants/coffee bars probably did bang up business.
Now maybe the city can pave my street from the sales tax receipts.
whoa whoa whoa...who let the dogs out? hoot hoot....
yall be crazy and shit... but for real.. his name sets him for an eternity of Adam wrong'ness when his is wrong.... and on the flip side an eternity of Right....
Looks like the surf ladies is going be back on top for Monday, huge NW coming in already looking 6.0ft at 280 Degrees, so stop complaining and get ready for some amazing swell !!!! Wooooo
P.S. Adam is the man, and was right about to day, the CDPI chart this am and late last night was looking shity but its looking amazing now.
adam's forecasts are great!
Thanks for all your hard work Adam. Keep it up!
Wow, what a bunch of crying babies. Just because the surf didn't go up more than the interest rate on your credit cards....sheesh.
Adam, what is up with the high pressure system that is about to park itself in the eastern half of the north pacific. Seems to me like this type of pattern should not be able to happen at this point in the year because the days are still getting shorter and the oceans/earth are still cooling down. I thought this pattern was more associated with the norpac winters after 12/21. Could the models be wrong about this?
That high is pretty impressive on the charts but I don't think it is as stable as the GFS is indicating right now. Just looking at the extended portion of the forecast it looks like the high shifts around, positioning over Southern Alaska later in the week.
When a high is really entrenched it doesn't reposition over a couple of days...usually you see a gradual shift over a couple of weeks...the instability in this one makes me think that it either won't get as strong as the forecast models think or it will get eroded out by some mid-latitude storms as we head toward next weekend.
The thing that is really tripping me out right now is the storm developing over Hawaii that is essentially a warm tropical/subtropical low and is forecast to hold in place for a couple of days...and in the process it will kick out a pretty good swell for micronesia and a bunch of the islands in the SW North Pacific. Crazy...
Adam thanks for replying to my question about the high pressure system and yah that low has a weird fetch.
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