The Climate Prediction Center just issued a seasonal outlook for the 2008 East Pacific Hurricane Season.
As usual the actual “outlook” straight from the government is a bit on the dry side…but basically is breaks down to this.
The official opinion is that it will be a below average season. The CPC is estimating that there is a 60-70% chance of the following.
11-16 named storms (tropical storm level or higher)
5-8 hurricanes (Cat 1 or higher)
1-3 major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher)
Which while it is cool that they give specifics for the number of storms I am not really sure that it means that much when you factor in the 30-40% margin of error.
It is worth remembering that from a surf standpoint it isn’t so much the quantity of the storms but the quality. We have had plenty of good tropical surf seasons with only a handful of hurricanes…it is just that a lot depends on where the storms form and how they behave. With a few well placed storms and we can get a ton of waves. (Though the odds are better the more storms we get…yeah I love having to contradict myself in the same paragraph)
Here is a little post I put together a couple of weeks ago that has some info on what to look for…
2008 East Pacific Hurricane Season
You can read the official NOAA press release here http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080522_pacifichurricaneoutlook.html
Here is the actual seasonal outlook from the CPC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html
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