I am seeing really good numbers on the Christmas Island Buoy (#51028), which is really the only buoy that is set up to give us advance warning of swells coming from the South Pacific. Anyway you can see in the picture that the buoy is running nearly 11-12’ with a dominant swell period of 17-seconds.
(Get the live buoy information at http://www.lajollasurf.org/buoylist.html )
Now the “combined” wave heights of the buoy are 11-12’ but about half of that is local swell…the other half though, about 5-6’ feet, is almost pure deepwater SW swell. The swell will lose a little steam as it travels over the next 4-5 days but I am still expecting it to arrive with about 3’+ of deepwater swell when it hits Southern California.
The peak of the swell is going to be on 7th…but we should start seeing new waves from this swell on the 6th. These waves will hold strong through the 8th and continue to send in surf all the way through the following weekend.
Wave heights are looking pretty solid too…most spots will take the deepwater heights and after shoaling will be 1.5- to 2-times the size, so average breaks will be running consistently in the shoulder-overhead range. Standout SW breaks do better than that…I expect those spots to have sets going 2-3’ overhead. Top SW facing breaks will probably see bigger sets.
More updates next week…have a good weekend!
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