Tuesday’s Surf – Clean, fading, and getting tide swampy

Tuesday looks rideable but overall mix of backing down surf and high morning tide will keep it from being a surf day.

We are going to see a mix of backing off WNW-NW energy (285-300) that is still fading out from the weekend, some new NW swell (295-300) that is so steeply angled that it will skip past almost every spot, and some trace SW swell (200-220) that is just lingering in the background…never strong enough to make much of a difference but not totally disappearing either.



Wave heights are going to hold in the knee-waist high range for the average exposed spots on Tuesday…mostly the WNW-NW exposed spots, the S facing breaks will be smaller and less consistent. The top NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will be in the waist-chest high range with a couple of rare chest-shoulder high sets still sneaking through. Expect shape to be soft and slow through the morning as more 6’+ high tide tries to drown our little swell mix.

Winds look good…light and variable to light-offshore for the morning. Clean conditions on tap for most areas. NW winds 10-12 knots build in through the afternoon but never get strong enough to completely blow it out.



Ugh…high-tide swampy and a fading/shadowed swell mix…it just doesn’t sound all that fun. Still the weather will be nice, and if you have a big board, or some magical fish board that grants wishes and helps to fight bad guys with its kung-fu action, then you will be able to get out and catch a couple softies…particularly if you have a spot that can handle the high tide. Personally I am planning on taking it slow in the morning and then rolling the dice that the tide can drop faster than the onshore bump picks up…I will probably lose but I don’t think I can face another session of high-tide shorebreak.

Here are the tides….

12/01/2009 Tuesday
01:06AM LST 2.0 L
07:19AM LST 6.5 H
02:48PM LST -1.1 L
09:10PM LST 3.6 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/30/2009

Forecast Overview

Not a super exciting week…we will see a mix of overlapping but mostly weak WNW-NW swell activity (and some background SW energy) filtering through most of the week…gradually backing down as we head towards Thursday. Conditions look nice, mostly clean mornings and sunny skies. Long-range charts are showing some promise…if things go right we could be looking a bigger WNW swell about a week into December.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Tuesday
We will have a mix of fading WNW swell (280-300) dropping off from the weekend, some trace SW energy (200-220), and some new NW swell (295-300) showing at only a handful of select spots. Look for the average spots to hold in the knee-waist high range with some rare waist high+ sets on the lower tides. Top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego, will have some waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets on the lower tide. Winds/Weather: Look for clean conditions with mostly light and variable to light offshore winds for the morning. NW winds around 10-12 knots move in through the afternoon.



Wednesday
The surf continues to hold on the small side as we see more of the leftover WNW energy and smaller/steeper NW swell (295-300). Look for most spots to hold in the knee-high+ rnage while the standout NW facing breaks, again mostly in San Diego, see some waist-chest high sets. Expect mostly slow/soft surf, particularly on the higher tides. Winds/Weather: Nice conditions again with more light and variable to light offshore winds for the morning and only minor NW flow 8-12 knots building in through the afternoon.



Thursday
Weak waves continue through Thursday…the surf continues to pulse in from the WNW-NW (290-300) while we see minor energy from the SW (200-220). Knee high+ surf will show at the average exposed breaks with a few waist high sets setting up at spots that can combo up the swell mix a little better. Standout NW facing breaks will hold in the knee-waist high range with some chest high sets still showing in the mix at times. Expect mostly slow/soft shape to continue. Winds/Weather: Naturally, since we don’t have a lot of surf, the conditions will remain nice…more light/variable to light-offshore flow for the morning and then NW winds around 10-12 knots by mid-afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The storm activity in the NPAC has taken a little bit of a break...over the last few days there have been a few storms but most of them have been too far north and outside of Socal’s swell window. These systems are the ones that will keep some marginal NW energy showing most of this week. Fortunately this trend is not forecast to last long…already the extended wind models are showing some new, much stronger, and better positioned, storm activity to form in the next 4-6 days that will have more WNW-NW swell heading our way…likely starting to increase our surf on the Dec 7th but peaking with a larger WNW swell around the 10th (Hawaii may see a large swell a couple of days earlier). Check out the charts…





Since these storms are still several days from forming it is a little early to get a good read on the size…but based on today’s forecasts the first pulse on the 7-8th should be around chest-shoulder high at the top breaks…while the more intense-looking shot of WNW energy that hits around the 10th will likely send in some more overhead surf to the top spots. Make sure to check the next Long-range forecast (on Thursday) I will have a bit clearer picture of those upcoming swells.

South Pacific
Is this still an ocean? Has the SPAC turned into a lake? It sure feels like it…but no…it isn’t a lake. There will continue to be the small, inconsistent, background noise coming in from the SW (200-220) generated by a nearly never-ending stretch of fetch that has been hanging around New Zealand. Non of these swells look like they will get over knee-waist high, even at the top breaks, so they barely qualify as rideable. Long-range charts don’t show many changes but the waaaaay out 5-6 day charts are suggesting a slightly bigger SSW pulse around the middle of December…yes, I am so pumped I can barely contain myself. (I hope you detect the sarcasm cause I am laying it on pretty thick).

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Monday – Clean Conditions and some overlapping WNW-NW swell

Monday looks like a surf day for the “exposed areas”…unfortunately those will be fewer and farther between as the combo of higher tide and a steeper swell angle will keep the lesser exposed (or tide sensitive) spots from being very much fun.

In the water we are going to have a mix of fading WNW energy (280-300) backing down from the weekend, some new NW energy (290-300) from a marginal storm out in the NPAC, and some weak SW swell (200-220) from the ever consistent (but never very good) stretch of fetch SE of New Zealand.



Average breaks, those with some exposure to the NW, will be in the waist-chest high range on Monday…consistency won’t be the best, and the tide will swamp it out at times, but there will be some rideable waves. The top NW spots, in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range but with an occasional head high set sneaking through the San Diego hot spots.

Winds look ok…mostly light and variable through the morning with some weak offshore flow near the passes and canyons. Expect clean conditions through the dawn patrol and then some building NW-WNW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



So like I said…it will be a surf day tomorrow if you head to the right area…if your spot is too shadowed or if it gets worked by the tide then you are going to have to slog through some marginal shape and inconsistent sets. The NW standouts will be the call tomorrow but due to the dropping swell mix I don’t think it will be worth driving all that far. I would probably stick to boards that can handle the extra-water and smaller surf…just so you can maximize the fun.

Here are the tides...

11/30/2009 Monday
12:29AM LST 1.9 L
06:43AM LST 6.1 H (back again!)
02:07PM LST -0.7 L
08:23PM LST 3.6 H

Waves for the Weekend – Sloppy Saturday with a clean-up on Sunday

Saturday looks chunky/funky as winds shift and hold onshore. Sunday conditions clean up and it looks like a surf day.

We will get a bit of a split decision this weekend thanks to a cold front pushing through the Socal region late Friday night and then moving further east on Saturday. Onshore W-NW winds will accompany this front and it will have things fairly blown out for Saturday morning. Sunday high-pressure builds back over the area and it looks like offshore winds will return. Swellwise we are going to see a mix of peaking WNW energy (285-300) and some local WNW-NW windswell (290-300). A small SW swell will hold way in the background.



Saturday we can expect the surf to continue to hold in the waist-chest high+ range at the average spots…with a few chest-head high sets mixing in at the “average” WNW-NW facing breaks. The standout NW spots, mostly through Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have shoulder-overhead surf with sets still going a couple of feet overhead as the swells combo up.



Winds, like I said, are not going to be very good on Saturday. Current forecasts are calling for consistent onshore winds out of the W-NW in the 10-15 knot range throughout Socal along with some stronger gusts hitting 20+ knots at the well exposed beaches from Santa Barbara down through Los Angeles. These winds may lighten up slightly in the afternoon but it would have to completely shut down or go steady offshore for the surf shape to clean up before the end of the day.



Sunday the mix of WNW-NW energy (280-300), both the longer-period and the local windswell, will be backing off steadily throughout the day…but even though it is dropping we will still hold onto some decent size at the exposed spots through the morning. Look for the average WNW facing spots to be in the waist-shoulder high range while the top NW breaks (again at the usual suspects) see some chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high and still a little overhead through the morning.



Winds look a lot better on Sunday. Offshore winds will start to fill back in later Saturday night and will strengthen as we head into Sunday morning. For the dawn patrol we can expect E-NE winds 10-15 knots with some stronger gusts in Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles. Orange County and San Diego will have light/variable offshore flow around 5-8 knots for the morning. Look for variable onshore winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon, and then another possible clean up for the evening.

If you couldn’t tell Sunday will be the best call surfwise even though the swell will be fading. Saturday at this point looks a bit sloppy. As usual, when we have this sort of unstable conditions (like this passing front), I recommend that you keep a “weather eye” on conditions…sometimes small pockets of surfable conditions can pop up as things get all swirly and the more you pay attention the better your odds of picking one off become. Also please pay attention to the swell direction…the majority of the energy is coming in from 290 and above, and while there is some more westerly components to this swell, it is much smaller at spots that don’t have clear NW exposure. S facing beaches are considerably smaller than the NW facing ones…try to pick breaks that don’t get left out of the fun. NW facing points/reefs have the best shape…the exposed beach breaks are getting pretty walled up.

Here are the tides…have a good weekend…

11/28/2009 Saturday
05:40AM LST 5.4 H
12:51PM LST 0.5 L
06:48PM LST 3.6 H
11:53PM LST 1.8 L

11/29/2009 Sunday
06:10AM LST 5.8 H
01:28PM LST -0.2 L
07:37PM LST 3.6 H

Surf Photos – Friday – Post Turkey Dawn Patrol

Drove around and checked out the new swell this morning…and it was showing were it was supposed to (the top NW spots)…and it was even pushing some ok looking waves into the lesser exposed breaks. Check out the CDIP nowcast from this morning…



Anyway I busted out the camera and snapped a few before the sun came up…the fast moving waves and the slow shutter speed made for some interesting photos.


The Mothership has landed


...and she is sending us waves

Surf for Friday – New WNW swell starts to peak

Friday will be a surf day…lots of waves to help snap us out of the post-turkey coma.

The new swell is right on time…already hitting the outer buoys and starting to filter through the nearshore islands. Check out the “Nowcast” from the CDIP…this is the one that is built off of actual data…not just the forecast model…you can really see the new energy piling up in the outer waters. It is also a great example to see how a steeper more Northerly swell angle gets heavily shadowed by Point Conception and all of those pesky islands.



This is the energy showing on the Harvest Buoy…lots of long-period energy…and a slightly better WNW angle (280-300 rather than 290-300 that we had hit on Tues/Wed). It is showing nearly 11-feet of energy at the 16-18 second period range!



And here is the forecast for Friday morning…as you can see a lot more energy making it into our spots.



So for Friday…we will have a new WNW swell (280-300) peaking throughout the day (eventually holding into Saturday). This one will have some decent size and consistency at the exposed spots and even the average WNW facing breaks will get plenty of waves.

Wave heights at the average WNW-NW facing breaks in Santa Barbara, North LA, and most of Orange County, will be in the chest-head high range on Friday. These areas are a little shadowed from the main swell energy so won’t as bit…or as consistent…but the “winter spots” in those regions will definitely have some waves. The S facing breaks naturally will be much smaller.

The better exposed spots in the more consistent winter regions, like Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will be in the shoulder-overhead range with some sets going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Again these would be the “average to better than average” type of spots in these region.

The top NW facing breaks, again in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead…with some sets coming in several feet overhead…maybe even bigger as you head down to Southern SD.

Winds look ok for Friday…mostly light and variable to light offshore through the morning...but what looks like some early onshore flow starting to push through Santa Barbara and Ventura through mid-morning. A cold front is expected to arrive through the afternoon/evening…so look for increasing cloud cover and some building onshore winds through the second part of the day.



For tomorrow…like I said lots of waves…even a few good-sized/big waves at the top NW facing breaks. Shapewise the NW exposed points/reefs are going to be the best...most beach breaks are going to get pretty wally and see a lot of current moving around. This swell looks like it would be worth driving for if you are looking to hit something in a different area…the only thing to keep in mind is that nearly EVERYONE has the day off…so you will probably just be driving into a freaking massive crowd anyways.

Here are the tides…stay safe, and I hope you guys get some! Make sure to send me some surf reports (AND PICTURES!)

11/27/2009 Fri
05:14AM LST 4.9 H
12:13PM LST 1.2 L
05:53PM LST 3.5 H
11:17PM LST 1.6 L

Turkey Day Surf – Clean and holding…with a new NW swell out the back

Thanksgiving will be a marginal surf day…the swell is still a little steeply angled to put many waves at the “average spots”…expect nice conditions but mostly slow inconsistent surf.

In the water we are going to have a mix of holding NW energy (290-300), some background SW swell (200-220) and some local NW windswell.



Average spots are going to see knee-waist high surf through the morning on Thursday. Most of it will be soft and slow, breaking close to shore if your spot can’t handle the tide swings. The better NW facing spots will be more in the waist-high range with some inconsistent chest high sets…again a little soft on the higher tides.

The NW facing standouts in South Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of Central/Southern San Diego, will see consistent waist-chest high+ surf with some shoulder high+ sets mixing in at times. Again plan on slower shape with long waits between the bigger waves through the morning.

Later in the afternoon the new long-period WNW-NW swell (280-300) will start to arrive, showing mostly in the Northerly counties (Santa Barbara, Ventura) before the sun sets. I don’t expect a ton of new size, even in those areas, but there may be some bigger waves pushing through into the indicator spots by late in the day. The rest of Socal may see a bit of an increase in wave-consistency…but not much size until the swell fills in later in the evening.

Winds look good…mostly light and variable to light offshore in the morning. Look for building WNW-NW winds around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



So the smaller surf will continue on Thursday morning…keeping things slow and soft…but rideable if you have the right equipment (longboards for most people…and maybe some of those retro-fish if you are a lighter surfer). It is the holiday…so expect a crowd pretty much anywhere there are semi-rideable waves. Keep an eye on the NW spots…there is always a chance that we will have a few sneaker sets at those good breaks by the end of the day. Personally I might take out the old ugly stick, surf with the fam, and then go into some sort of turkey coma by the afternoon.

Here are the tides…have a great holiday guys!

11/26/2009 Thursday
04:49AM LST 4.5 H
11:32AM LST 1.8 L
04:50PM LST 3.4 H
10:41PM LST 1.4 L

Swell Alert – Good sized W-WNW heading to the West Coast

A strong new W-WNW swell will start moving into the California Coast late tonight, hitting the Northern and Central California regions well after sundown and eventually peaking in those regions on Thanksgiving.

Southern California will start to see some WNW-NW (280-300) long-period energy (18-20 seconds) later Thursday afternoon…eventually peaking throughout the day on Friday and holding into the weekend.

Like most of the intense storms we have seen so far this season this latest system is another mix of extra-tropical moisture from near Japan and a colder, higher-latitude, cold-front moving off of Siberia and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The rapid cooling of the warm-moist air-mass is helping to fuel the storm’s intensity, which has been pretty impressive…40-50+ knots of wind and 30-35 foot seas have been recorded (not just forecasted) in the key areas of fetch. Check out the latest JASON-1 satellite data…you can find this same stuff over on the Stormsurf.com website…and as usual a bit thanks to Mark Sponsler for letting me poach a couple of charts now and then. Make sure to visit his site when you get a chance.



And here is the equally impressive WavewatchIII forecast chart…as you can see the two are pretty matched up.



Anyhoo…the pictures are pretty in all…but lets talk about some surf.

Northern and Central California

The new W-WNW swell (275-315) is already showing on the SE Papa Buoy (#46006)…and actually started to hit this outer buoy around 4-5 am this morning with a sizeable dose of energy in that 18-20-second swell-period range. Check out the buoy’s historical data…





This buoy is about 600 miles west of Eureka…and is generally considered the 1-day buoy for Northern and Central California, which means that it takes a swell in the 17- to 18-second period range about 23-24 hours to actually hit the Northern/Central Cal beaches. (This buoy is usually 36-40 hours away form Southern California, depending on the swell period…)

So based on the buoy data, and the JASON-1 pass, this is going to be a pretty solid swell for the exposed spots North of Point Conception. It will peak with 12-14-feet of deepwater swell, which generally translates into consistent well-overhead to double-overhead+ surf for the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the double-triple overhead range. Best deepwater breaks, like Mavericks, will see steady 14-16-foot faces with some bombs coming in around 20’+ on the face.



Winds and weather are going to cooperate on Thursday…lots of light/variable winds in the morning with some spots seeing light/moderage offshore flow through the first part of the day. NW winds build in through the evening and strengthen more into Friday…if you are surfing this area, Thursday will definitely be the cleanest and likely the most fun day of this swell.

Check out the CDIP models for the area…







Southern California

Socal is going to see some new long-period WNW-NW energy (280-300) showing in the well exposed Santa Barbara and Ventura breaks late in the afternoon/evening on Thursday. The swell will fill in more overnight and will start to peak for all areas by midmorning on Friday.

Friday Morning…



This is another one of those swells where the majority of the energy is riding in around 290-300…but with enough (more) westerly energy from (280-300) to keep waves showing at the lesser exposed spots.

As this swell peaks we can expect the average WNW facing spots to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf with sets going head high…with a couple of bigger sets mixing in. The top NW facing spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going 2-3-feet overhead…and possibly bigger at those excellent breaks that can focus the long-medium period NW energy.

Winds look good for both Thursday and Friday…mostly light and variable through the mornings (a little more offshore on Thursday)…and then only moderate onshore flow around 10-15 knots for the late afternoon. Stronger NW winds build in later Friday evening.


Overall…this is looking like a pretty good swell, particularly if you like big waves and you live up North. For SoCal though…I think it will be fun, but due to the majority of the energy coming in from 290+, there will be some shadowing issues…and if you don’t stick the best exposed spots you won’t see the larger surf. It will be rideable almost everywhere that has exposure…so you don’t “have” to drive far to get waves, but if you are looking for the overhead stuff plan on heading to the normal winter standouts.

Waves for Wednesday – Clean conditions (and NW swell) continue

Wednesday will be a surf day.

The NW swell (290-300) will hold on Wednesday and mix with a slight bump in SW energy (200-220). Look for the NW’er to loose a little steam as we head into the afternoon.



Since the swell angle is starting to get pretty steep on the NW energy it won’t be showing at a ton of spots…the lesser exposed areas will be working off a mix of leftover WNW-NW energy and if they are lucky some of the inconsistent SW swell. Look for the average breaks to hold in the knee-waist high range…with some rare waist-chest high sets sneaking through at times. The standout NW facing breaks, particularly spots that like longer-period (15-16 second) energy in the Ventura, South Bay, and San Diego areas, will have more consistent waist-chest high surf with some occasional chest-shoulder high sets sneaking in…a few of the better San Diego spots will be around head high on the bigger sets.

We will have offshore winds for the morning. SB and Ventura areas will see NE winds 10-15+ knots (with gusts nearing 20-25 knots at times). LA down through San Diego will be more NE around 5-10 knots but still nice and clean. Looks like winds will stay light through midday and then turn variable onshore by mid-afternoon. With these sort of conditions I would keep an eye on things around the end of the day…good chance that winds will lay down or even turn offshore again…so there may be a chance for an evening cleanup.



More clean, rideable (if not playful) surf on tap for Wednesday...unfortunately it will be a bit slow and small if you aren’t at a break with great NW exposure…so if you are stuck surfing leftovers you will want to bring a longboard or something with a lot of foam in it. The standout spots will have some racier sections…particularly if the break is on the shallow side…I would still probably stick to something fishy but you might be able to get away with a faster board. With a lot of people already on vacation expect the crowd to get a bit heavy tomorrow...between the crowd factor, and the steeper less consistent swell in the water I don’t think it will be worth driving too far for waves…hopefully you will be able to find a fun peak close to home.

Here are the tides…

11/25/2009 Wed
04:23AM LST 4.2 H
10:40AM LST 2.4 L
03:31PM LST 3.4 H
10:02PM LST 1.2 L

Links for the regional forecasts…

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsb.blogspot.com/
Ventura Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastven.blogspot.com/
Los Angeles Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastla.blogspot.com/
Orange County Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastoc.blogspot.com/
San Diego Surf Forecast - http://socalforecastsd.blogspot.com/

Transworld SURF Forecast – More North Pacific Love

Hey guys… my latest Transworld SURF forecast is up over on their website…It has some good data on the long-range conditions of the North Pacific…and since I have Northern California in the forecast I get to talk about the potential for a Mavericks Thanksgiving Day surf session…hmmm Turkey, 20-foot cold-water bombs, and offshore winds. I can imagine the pumpkin pie just tastes that much better after a session like that.

http://surf.transworld.net/features/west-coast-weekly-surf-forecast-5/

Tuesday’s Surf – Offshore winds with some new NW swell

Tuesday will be a surf day…again nothing huge, even with the new swell, but the offshore winds and sunny skies will make a good argument for paddling out.

Our swell will be a mix of sort of holding WNW-NW short-period energy (not totally windswell but very similar), some new NW swell (290-300), and some trace SW swell (200-220) that will hold through the background. Again most of the WNW-NW swell energy (from both swells) will be coming in around the 290-300 degree range…which means that there will be a fair amount of swell shadowing…check out the CDIP swell map and you can see how the energy will be pushing through the islands and around point conception.



Most spots are going to be in the knee-waist high range tomorrow…smaller and less consistent at spots without NW exposure. The better WNW-NW facing spots will be in the waist-chest high range…as well as a few of the better combo breaks. The top NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and parts of San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high sets…particularly as the new, longer-period energy starts to fill in during the afternoon.

We will have offshore winds for the morning. SB and Ventura areas will see NE winds 10-15+ knots (with gusts nearing 20-25 knots at times). LA down through San Diego will be more NE around 5-10 knots but still nice and clean. Looks like winds will stay light through midday and then turn variable onshore by mid-afternoon. With these sort of conditions I would keep an eye on things around the end of the day…good chance that winds will lay down or even turn offshore again…so there may be a chance for an evening cleanup.

So like I said…Tuesday will be a surf day…nothing spectacular for most areas, but rideable and clean throughout our region…and a few “more-fun” spots that can pull in the NW energy. I would plan on bringing your smaller-wave gear to the beach…longboards and fishy boards will probably be the most fun…a few of the top NW spots might let you get away with something a little sportier.

Here are the tides…

11/24/2009 Tue
03:53AM LST 3.8 H
09:21AM LST 3.0 L
01:57PM LST 3.6 H
09:18PM LST 1.1 L

Hey gang…from the comments I saw on the forecast yesterday it sounds like the regional forecasts aren’t as fun as this one. They are a bit of a pain to do…so if you guys dig them let me know. I will probably put up a poll in a little bit…

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 11/23/2009

Forecast Overview

Playful WNW-NW energy and some weak SW swell will combine with Santa Ana conditions for the next couple of days. Look for the Santa Anas to back down by Thanksgiving but a new, stronger, WNW swell to arrive Thursday evening and peak into Friday. More swell on tap over the weekend and the possible return of offshore winds by early next week. I love fall even more this year!

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday
We are going to see a mix of WNW-NW energy (280-300 with most of the energy above 290-degrees) from a couple of different sources…some of which, like the shorter-period windswell, will be fading out while new long-period energy fills in slowly through the day. Some small SW swell (200-220) continues to hang in the background. Most spots will see waist high surf on Tuesday while some of the average NW spots see waist-chest high sets. Standout NW facing breaks, mostly through Ventura and San Diego, will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Expect consistency to back down across the region but look for fun surf as the sets show. Winds/Weather: Look for light to moderate Santa Ana offshore winds for the morning. The wind-prone areas of Santa Barbara down through LA County will have NE winds 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts at times. OC and San Diego will have NE winds around 5-10 knots. Look for light onshore flow to push through in the afternoon…but conditions potentially could clean up as the sun sets.



Wednesday
The mix of WNW-NW energy (285-300) will hold while a new, but small, SW pulse (195-220) moves in from the Southern Hemisphere. Look for the average spots, mostly the NW facing ones, to be in the waist-high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. Top NW facing breaks, and the best NW/SW combo spots, will be more in the chest-high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets showing at times. Winds/Weather: Look for light to moderate Santa Ana offshore winds for the morning. The wind-prone areas of Santa Barbara down through LA County will have NE winds 10-20 knots with some stronger gusts at times. OC and San Diego will have NE winds around 5-10 knots. Look for light onshore flow to push through in the afternoon…but conditions potentially could clean up as the sun sets.



Thursday – Thanksgiving…hmmm Turkey
We will start off with the first WNW-NW swell still holding, some weak SW swell, and a touch of local windswell. Most spots will be in the knee-waist high+ range for the morning. Top NW facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. New WNW energy (280-300) starts moving in with very long-period energy (18+ seconds) as we move through the second half of the day…look for some new sets starting to show up in Ventura/Santa Barbara before sundown. Winds/Weather: The Santa Ana conditions will weaken slightly…but we will still have some clean morning surf. Look for light and variable winds through the morning and some light onshore WNW flow around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.



Friday
The new WNW swell (280-300) will peak on Friday while the windswell and the weak SW swell hold in the background. Look for the average exposed spots to build into the chest-shoulder high range while the better exposed spots see some head high sets. Standout NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have consistent shoulder-head high+ surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead throughout the day. San Diego standouts may even have some bigger sets at times. Winds/Weather: Quite a bit cooler than earlier in the week thanks to a new cold front passing through the area. Doesn’t look like the morning winds will be too bad…but some of the more exposed breaks further north (SB and Ventura) may have some early NW flow. Look for NW winds to hit 10-20 knots by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
As you can see in the short-range forecast there is plenty of WNW-NW swell on tap for the next several days…with a bigger dose lining up for the end of the week. One thing that is worth noting in the Short-range forecast is the arrival-time of the bigger WNW pulse…the last forecast had it coming up faster on Thanksgiving but now it looks like I have to push back the arrival time, we will still see some new waves from that swell on Thursday, particularly in Santa Barbara and Ventura, but the meat of the swell will early Friday morning (holding through the day). Not a lot of change but enough that it is worth calling out to you guys.

In the long-range portion of the forecast there is still plenty more energy on tap through the end of the month. The storm track is pretty open and we are going to see a blend of both long-period energy from systems close to the Aleutians and storms that form closer to the West Coast. At this point it looks like we are going to get a nice shot of short-medium period WNW-NW energy from that cold front that pushes through our region later this week…this shot of swell hits Saturday and holds into Sunday mixing nicely with the long-period energy that will peak on Friday.



We can expect more chest-head high surf at the average WNW facing spots on Saturday and Sunday…and some overhead+ sets at the standout NW facing breaks (again in SD and Ventura as well as some of the top South Bay breaks). Weather may be a little funky on Saturday (but manageable)…by Sunday the Santa Anas are expected to return…so we could be in store for some fun/sizeable waves as we head into the end of the holiday weekend.



Even further out the forecast run is showing lots more storm activity forming in our swell window later this week. If these storms live up to forecasts we will be seeing another round of head high+ WNW swell for the first days of December and potentially a bigger W swell for around Dec 3-4. These storms have a loooooong way before they actually develop but it is good to see so much action on the long-range charts.

South Pacific
Still not a lot of energy in the South Pacific…guess it thinks the NPAC has things covered. We will have a minor, knee-chest high SW pulse (200-220) that arrives on the 24th and holds through the 26th. Not much on tap after that…just minimal energy leaking in through the end of the month.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Friday, November 27th, 2009

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Monday’s Surf – Clean and slowly fading

Monday looks like a surf day…but you will need to stick to the top NW exposed spots if you are looking for bigger size and more consistency.

In the water we are going to see a mix of backing off WNW-NW swell (280-300) and some trace SW energy (210-220). A lot of the North Pacific energy is starting to turn pretty steep in swell direction…which reflects how the storm moved through our swell window (eventually hitting further North along the West Coast…and into Canada)…so most of swell is now coming in around 290-300 but with the majority of the energy at 295+.

I know “great lots of numbers…just what I need on a weekend”…basically it comes down to this...with the angle getting steeper (and the swell periods shortening up) less spots are going to be able to pick up the NW swell, which means that wave heights are going to drop pretty fast if your spot/region has less exposure to that swell angle. NW spots will still have some playful sizes but expect them to be on the way down as well.



For our surf tomorrow…most of the average WNW-NW breaks and the better combo spots are going to be in the waist-chest high range. The standout NW facing breaks, in Ventura, the South Bay, and in particular San Diego, will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets still pushing through on the higher tides.

Winds look good…light/moderate NE winds for SB and Ventura…and light offshore for everywhere else. Winds stay light through the middle of the day and then come onshore out of the NW around 10-13 knots.



If you have a good NW spot close by (and by good I mean exposed to short-medium period NW energy around 295 degrees)…that is going to be the best call by far. If you don’t have a NW facing spot then you are going to want to check the other “winter” spots close by…but don’t expect a ton of size or consistency as the swell fades. I don’t think it will be worth driving too far for this swell, but I would tack on another 10 minutes if a good spot is close.


Here are the tides… (I am skipping the regional forecasts for the evening…they will be updated again Monday evening).

11/23/2009 Mon
03:11AM LST 3.6 H
07:19AM LST 3.3 L
12:28PM LST 4.0 H
08:29PM LST 0.9 L