Thursday’s funk – go away wind!

Thursday isn’t looking all that fun…there will be more swell in the water but it looks like more of this onshore wind, and probably some rain as well.

The WNW-NW swell (280-300), which is a mix of medium-period energy and local windswell slop), will peak on Thursday. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day…lots of long-period energy showing mostly on the buoys, but starting to sneak into the beaches by the end of the day. Again there may be a few pockets of semi-rideable (that being a relative term) conditions at the really protected spots in the morning, but don’t waste a lot of time/gas/money looking for clean glassy surf.



The WNW swell mix will be peaking on Thursday morning…but it looks like most of the energy is coming in around the 290-300 degree range…check out how it is hitting Socal on the CDIP analysis chart…



There is a little bit of refraction/bend to the WNW-NW energy (the longer-period swell) that you can see on the fringes of NW facing breaks…but the majority of the swell is both steeper in swell angle and shorter in swell period which is why the swell-shadow from Point Conception and the nearshore islands is so pronounced. This means that there will be some pretty changes in size as you move from an exposed beach to a lesser exposed area.

Sizewise on Thursday…look for the average WNW facing spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing breaks…in those red circles…will be shoulder-head high+ on the average sets with some bigger sets going overhead+ at times. Winds and the tide swing will hamper size and shape for almost everywhere...so if you are heading out hell or high water…try and keep that in mind when you pick your spot.

Weather is supposed to be pretty sloppy tomorrow too…check out the NOAA graphical forecast...



Winds are a little weird though…the weather models aren’t really sure how this storm is going to set up by Thursday morning…it may center itself around point conception…or it may be further out to sea. Both positions have different effects on the wind…a closer storm could allow the northern counties like Santa Barbara and Ventura to see lighter winds while LA on southward would see onshore W winds pretty much from the start of the day. If the storm is further off the coast then we may have more southerly winds across most of Socal, which leaves a few spots pretty protected. Check out the two wind models that I am looking at this afternoon…there is a pretty big difference between the two…





I have a gut feeling that we are going to get something in the middle of these two…sort of lighter/variable onshore flow for the morning, mostly W-SW around 10 knots with some of the northern areas seeing the W winds pick up fast by mid-morning. By the afternoon all spots should be plenty blown out thanks to 15-20 knot W winds with some 25 knot gusts. The rain should move out pretty fast too…

Basically I am expecting sloppy, junky conditions for most areas tomorrow…I know, I know there is always the one secret reef that has the inside section that works on the reverse negative tide and goes offshore whenever the wind is bad everwhere else…no matter what direction it is blowing (I think you have to talk to the singing bush, to find the invisible swordsman, so he can show you to the spot for the first time)...but for most of us that have to surf the normally wide open beaches, it is going to be pretty lumpy. As usual, whenever we have swell in the water, I recommend at least checking the wind in the morning (or whenever your “surf time” is during the day)…just to make sure that the storm hasn’t done something weird and opened a little window for you.

Here are the tides…

04/01/2010 Thu
05:41AM LDT -0.8 L
11:46AM LDT 3.7 H
05:06PM LDT 1.3 L
11:16PM LDT 5.6 H

Waves for Wednesday – Some Wind, Some Rain, and Some more WNW-NW swell

Wednesday is not looking like much of a surf day. Onshore winds are forecast to stay pretty steady tonight (out of the W) and hold through most of the day tomorrow. Rain and more wind is expected to move in Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of building local NW windswell and some increasing WNW-NW medium-period energy (280-300) both coming off this storm that will be moving through. There will be some small SW swell in the background but most spots won’t notice much of the energy.



Most spots will see some sort of increase surfwise tomorrow…but most of the new size will be local windswell/stormswell and it won’t be doing much to help shape. Sure there may be a few hidden pockets of protected breaks (particularly in the morning)…but those spots won’t be as exposed to the windswell if they are protected from the winds. Average WNW-NW breaks will likely hold around chest-head high while the best exposed NW facing breaks see some shoulder-overhead surf with some sets reaching a couple of feet overhead by the afternoon. (it looks like this swell will peak overnight into Thursday.)

Winds are forecast to be out of the W around 10-15 knots for the morning…with exposed areas hitting 20-25 knot gusts by the afternoon. Rain will push down from Santa Barbara in the morning and eventually hit most of Socal by the late afternoon…it should be a fairly cold airmass along with it…so snow levels could be dropping (so local mountains could get some new snow).



Looking at the charts and models isn’t giving me a lot of hope for tomorrow…but since there is swell in the water I always recommend at least looking at the cameras (or wind observations) to make sure that a surfable window hasn’t opened up at your usual spots. The westerly winds are able to junk up most spots but there may be a pocket or two at the really well protected breaks. Personally I will be getting up and checking stuff out early just to make sure that the storm hasn’t stalled out…but I will probably be going back to bed.

No county level forecasts today…there are only so many ways to write blown-out before it gets tedious.

Here are the tides…

03/31/2010 Wednesday
04:52AM LDT -0.9 L
10:54AM LDT 4.3 H
04:33PM LDT 0.8 L
10:40PM LDT 5.8 H

Surf for Tuesday – getting sloppy

Tuesday doesn’t look like much of a surf day…but if winds cooperate, there may be a little surf window in the morning.

We are going to see a mix of building WNW-NW swell (280-300), some weak SW swell (200-220) and increasing local WNW windswell. A new cold front is forecast to move down the coast on Tuesday…not really affecting Socal till late (mostly after dark)…but eventually increasing onshore winds and adding some rain/drizzle into the mix.



Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the better winter regions like Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego, will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides.

Wind/weather is where we are going to have the issues…most of the forecasts are calling for WNW winds that pick up here on Monday night to hold steady straight through Tuesday morning, which, if that is the case, will keep things pretty sloppy for most areas. A couple of the forecast models…the COAMPS and the NOAA/NWS graphical models to be precise…are showing a little bubble of light winds right along the coast line through the early morning. I don’t think we should hold our breath…but there might be a chance at some lighter winds, maybe even semi-clean conditions during the dawn patrol. Check out the COAMPS for the morning…see the gap that follows the coast…the COAMPS is calling for winds under 5 knots for the morning.



So not much of a surf day Tuesday…but a glimmer of hope early in the morning. Personally I am going to just keep an eye on the wind tonight and if it looks like it is lying down I will set my alarm a little earlier and see how things held together overnight. I wouldn’t burn a lot of gas getting to the beach, but if winds look light and you live close it might be worth a quick drive-by. If the winds increase later tonight you might just want to sleep in.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/30/2010 Tuesday
04:06AM LDT -0.7 L
10:05AM LDT 4.8 H
04:00PM LDT 0.3 L
10:05PM LDT 5.9 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/29/2010

Forecast Overview

More WNW-NW swell arrives on Tuesday and eventually peaks Wednesday/Thursday before slowly dropping off toward the weekend. Funky weather (onshore wind/rain) arrive around the same time and will probably keep things pretty sloppy as most of the swell pushes through. A long-period S swell arrives on Thursday and peaks Friday and Saturday…conditions will be cleaning up around then...cross your fingers that there is still enough WNW-NW energy that can help add some combo to the swell mix.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (chance for morning surf…bumpy by the afternoon)
The WNW-NW swell (280-300) will continue to fill in on Tuesday as more local windswell and some WNW-NW swell from the storm gathering off the California coast, pile some new energy into the mix. There will also be a smaller SW pulse (200-220) that will back down slowly through the day. Most spots with WNW exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high+ sets. The standout NW breaks in the usual spots (Ventura, the South Bay, and South SD) will have more consistent head high surf with some sets going overhead on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A new cold front is set to push into the region on Tuesday…arriving in SB/Ventura through the morning and then trying to push south throughout the day. Overall it looks like onshore wind for Socal…but areas ahead of the front may not be that bad, even seeing some SE winds before it hits. The winds are expected to shift more W around 10-15 knots for the afternoon with stronger gusts the closer you get to Point Conception.



Wednesday – (Not a surf day)
Looks pretty craptacular weatherwise…but the stormy WNW-NW swell will be peaking through the afternoon. I don’t expect in the way of clean surf on Wednesday but there are always a few obscure pockets here and there…it is sort-of worth watching the swell. The WNW-NW energy (280-300) will be peaking with shoulder-head high+ surf at most exposed spots and sets going a few feet overhead (and bigger) at the standout NW facing breaks. Winds/Weather: Winds look almost universally sucky on Wednesday…look for W winds 10-15+ knots for most areas with the most exposed spots seeing 20-25 knot gusts. Rain/drizzle is pretty likely throughout the day.



Thursday – (Not a surf day)
The peak of the WNW-NW swell (280-300) will continue to hold into Thursday morning…along with the sloppy conditions. A new S swell (180-200) moves in throughout the day and will start to peak a few hours after sunset. Most spots will see shoulder-head high+ surf with overhead+ sets mixing in on the lower tides. The standout NW facing spots will be overhead to several feet overhead….with the biggest surf showing in the morning. The S facing breaks will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range as the new S swell moves in…as well as a few bigger sets at the Orange County/San Diego standout summer breaks. Winds/Weather: Another cold-front is forecast to move through early on Thursday morning…turning the winds a bit southerly (more SW than S unfortunately). Potentially it may bring some heavier rain as well. Look for the winds to shift more W around 10-20 knots through the afternoon.



Friday – (Some clean up possible…chance for some surf)
The storm is expected to move out of the area on Friday…conditions may not totally clean up…but it will be better than what we see earlier in the week. Look for the WNW-NW swell (280-300) to fade out slowly through the day while the S swell (180-200) continues to peak. The average spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets. The standout NW facing spot and the good combo breaks will have fairly consistent shoulder-overhead surf with some sets still going a couple of feet+ overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Conditions still look pretty unstable but if the storm moves out a bit earlier on Thursday (or comes in weaker to begin with) then we will see some cleanup on Friday. Look for mostly N-NNW winds around 10-15 knots up around Santa Barbara down through LA…and then N winds around 10 knots for OC and SD. Looks like all spots see some W winds around 15 knots for the afternoon.



North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.





Unfortunately this same storm is going to drape a couple of cold fronts down over SoCal starting Tuesday evening and holding on through Thursday. These fronts will build up local WNW-NW windswell to mix in with the medium/long-period WNW-NW energy…but of course the winds that set up the windswell will be blowing right over top of us and between them and the rain it is going to keep conditions pretty sloppy through midweek.

Further out the NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm may form up around the Aleutians later this week, which would set up new NW swell (290-300+) that would arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now we will be seeing some new long-period S-swell (170-200) from a storm that moved off Antarctica late last week. The storm had some decent wind speeds…plenty of 35-45 knot winds around the key areas of fetch…and the storm made a very good South-to-North movement as it was intensifying which helped to push more swell our direction. It won’t be huge…but I do expect it to be pretty playful as it peaks and I expect it to stick around for a few days. This swell will start to arrive with some long-period energy on Thursday (April 1)…and then peaking on Friday/Saturday (April 2-3). Average spots will see chest-shoulder high surf from this one while the standout S facing breaks hold more in the head high to slightly overhead range on the sets.

Further out There is some new storm action developing down by New Zealand that is forecast to intensify as some sub-tropical moisture pushes south into the storm track just as the system starts to clear the SPAC Island Shadow.





If this comes through as the charts are showing we would be looking at another round of shoulder-head high SW swell (200-220) that would arrive around April 8th and hold through the 10th. This one still has a few days of development before it sends swell but we should start seeing some actual numbers later this week.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, April 1st , 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Monday’s Surf – Starting to pick back up

Monday will be pretty surfably…conditions start clean but we have to slog through a mid-morning high tide which is pretty sucktacular. Despite the building swell…onshore winds will honk things up by the afternoon.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of new WNW-NW swell (285-300 but with most of the energy holding in the 290-300 swell angles). We will also see some background SW swell (200-220) and building NW windswell both of which will push up slightly throughout the day.



Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range for the morning…with some bigger chest high sets showing at the better WNW facing average breaks. The standouts, mostly Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some rare bigger sets showing at spots that like the higher tides. By the afternoon look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the average spots and a few head high+ sets hitting the standout breaks.

Winds look ok in the morning…mostly light and variable with a few small pockets of offshore still showing in a few places. Since the wind doesn’t get much of a chance to shift around the local air we might see some fog in a few places as well…it shouldn’t be much of a problem, just keep in mind that it might not be totally sunny at the beach. NW winds around 10-15 knots start to pick up a little before lunchtime and will eventually peak later in the afternoon.



Again…not super exciting surfwise…the building swell helps, but it doesn’t look like a ton of it will show before the onshore winds start to get to it. The high tide doesn’t do us any favors either. I think that the early morning will be the most fun, clean conditions, the tide pushing in, and some of the new swell starting to arrive too...if you stick to exposed spots that can handle the higher tide it could end up being a pretty playful start to the week. If you wait too long…or all of the sand at your beach is gone…then the tide and the building winds won’t make it all that appealing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/29/2010 Monday
03:21AM LDT -0.4 L
09:17AM LDT 5.1 H
03:27PM LDT -0.2 L
09:32PM LDT 5.8 H

Sewage Spill - Avoid Doheny for a while…

I read on the news, and heard from a couple of you guys, that there was a pretty big sewage spill that got dumped into the Tijeras Creek that sometimes flows into Doheny State beach. It sounds like the spill happened a couple of days ago…but I am sure that the closure will be around for a bit.

This is what I read on the Orange County Local News…

“A 24-inch iron sewage line belonging to the Santa Margarita Water District ruptured Tuesday afternoon and sent some 500,000 gallons of untreated sewage into Tijeras Creek, which empties into the ocean at Doheny State Beach in Dana Point.”

You can read more here

http://www.oclnn.com/orange-county/2010-03-27/local-news/dana-point-san-clemente-beaches-remain-closed#ixzz0jRRYrqvo

500,000 gallons…man that is just nasty, talk about poo water.

Speaking of that…check out this shirt…I think that Kevin’s since of humor fits pretty well with the closure...and hits a little close to home at the same time.

http://www.kevinashort.com/toiletflush2.html

Waves for the Weekend – Fading swell with good beach weather

It will be a surfable weekend…both Saturday and Sunday will have good morning/lunchtime winds…but fading swell and fatter morning high tides are going to hamper shape a bit.

In the water we are going to have a mix of fading WNW-NW swell (280-300), backing off SW swell (195-215) and dropping local windswell. Saturday will be the biggest day with more of the WNW energy holding through the morning.



Sunday looks smaller across the board…the WNW’er will be mostly gone…but there is a very small reinforcement of SW swell that will keep the southern hemi from dropping completely out of the mix.



On Saturday most spots will be pretty slow in the morning thanks to the high tide…but once the tide evens out we can expect surf in the waist high range for the average spots…and some shoulder high+ sets at the standout NW facing breaks in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego.

Sunday will see smaller surf with the average spots holding around knee high…and the standouts seeing some waist-chest high sets. (South SD might be a little bigger on inconsistent sets). Again the tide will be an issue in the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the higher tides.

Winds look good both days…light/variable to light-moderate offshore for the mornings and then just mild onshore sea-breezes around 10-12 knots for the afternoons…though it does look a little breezier on Sunday in the late afternoon.

Saturday Winds


Sunday Winds


The weekend’s surf isn’t all that exciting but it will be rideable and conditions will be clean which always helps. I think that most of you will have more fun on your small wave gear…but if you are down in SD you might get to keep the “all-around” board in the truck for Saturday….Sunday looks pretty small, probably a good day if you are just learning…or don’t mind riding the big boards. I will probably take a look at the surf on Saturday as the tide drops but I am not expecting a ton from it. Sunday I will probably be out building some sandcastles with the kids…

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…have a good weekend!

03/27/2010 Saturday
01:47AM LDT 0.9 L
07:39AM LDT 5.3 H
02:19PM LDT -0.7 L
08:29PM LDT 5.0 H

03/28/2010 Sunday
02:34AM LDT 0.2 L
08:29AM LDT 5.3 H
02:54PM LDT -0.5 L
09:00PM LDT 5.4 H

Transworld SURF Forecast – Northern and Southern Hemis working together…that is crazy talk!

Hey guys…my latest forecast is up over at Transworld SURF…there is a lot of storm on storm action in it…not just for Socal, but waves for all over the freaking Pacific…Hawaii, Mexico, Central America, Tahiti, North swells, west swells, S swells, warm water, cold, whatever…it has what you need. Oh and it might rain in Socal next week…stupid rain.

Make sure to check it out (and bask in its awesomeness) when you get a chance…

http://surf.transworld.net/1000101185/features/west-coast-and-hawaii-surf-forecast-3/

Surf for Friday – New WNW-NW swell with a little wind-bump on the side

Friday looks pretty surfable…and with the weather warming back up, it being a Friday, and there being some swell to ride…I think we should just go ahead and call it a surf day.

We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The WNW’er will already be showing up around Ventura (and probably the South Bay) by the morning but it will have just started to arrive in OC and San Diego…so don’t expect a ton of new energy from it at first unless you are a little further north. It will fill in more through the day and as the local windswell jumps into the mix the WNW-NW facing spots should be pretty consistent by the afternoon.



Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout NW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high and overhead waves mixing in as the WNW energy gets more established. There will be another decent sized tide swing through the morning…so try and pick spots that can handle the extra water in the morning and then the negative low-tide around lunchtime.

Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds here are there but it will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.

Here are the graphical NWS regional models…the COAMPS needs to lay off the crack it has been smoking lately (they must be running it on a Vista machine).

Winds for Santa Barbara through Los Angeles



Winds for Orange County and San Diego



So it won’t be anything spectacular on Friday…the swell isn’t all that big for most spots…but there will still be enough combo in the water that almost everyone will be able to find something to ride. It will be one of those compromise days in terms of the tide/wind…do you surf early with the high tide and clean conditions? Or do you wait for the tide to drop and then get bumpy shape thanks to increasing onshore winds? Personally I am going to aim for somewhere in the middle and hope that I can find a sandbar somewhere that can take on the swampthing.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/26/2010 Friday
12:55AM LDT 1.5 L
06:44AM LDT 5.2 H
01:42PM LDT -0.7 L
07:59PM LDT 4.4 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/25/2010

Forecast Overview

The mix of SW and NW swell will hold for the next few days…possibly building in a little more from the WNW-NW by Friday while the SW swell fades out. Look for more combo swell over the weekend…and if the North Pacific has its way…we will probably see even more WNW/S-SW combo through most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday
We will have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), a new building WNW-NW swell (280-300), and some increasing local windswell. The new WNW’er should already be showing a bit of energy by morning, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some overhead sets hitting the top NW spots in Ventura and the South Bay on the lower tides…eventually it will push down the coast and so look for Southern San Diego to pick up more energy around sundown. Overall it looks like the average SW and WNW facing spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range…with some plus sets showing at the average combo spots. Standout breaks will be chest-shoulder high on most sets with some head high/overhead waves mixing in at times. Winds/Weather: Looks like winds will be fairly clean in the morning…there may be a little variable onshore winds but they will be on the light side (hopefully below 5 knots). The winds switch onshore by the afternoon and push in out of the WNW-NW around 10-15+ knots.



Saturday
Both the WNW-NW swell (280-300) and the now leftover SW swell (195-215) will be backing down on Saturday…but despite the fading swell Saturday will probably be pretty fun. Look for most spots to hold in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW facing spots (and excellent combo spots) see some shoulder-head high surf. A few of the best breaks, mostly in South SD, will have some bigger sets…going a little overhead during the morning. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.



Sunday
Sunday will see mostly leftovers as the WNW-NW’er and the SW swell both continue to fade away. Look for most spots to be in the knee-waist high range with a few bigger sets at the combo beach breaks. The standout NW facing spots, again mostly in Southern SD, will have more size with surf in the chest-high range and some inconsistent shoulder high sets. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.



Monday
The surf comes back up on Monday a bit as a new NW swell (285-300 but really the most of the energy is going to be 295+ so don’t expect it to hit every where) and a new small pulse of SW swell (200-220) helps to prop up the leftovers from the weekend. Average spots will be in the waist high range with some chest high sets at the better combo breaks. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly Ventura/SouthBay/South San Diego, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets on the lower tides. Like I said…the NW’er is going to come in pretty steep so expect mostly playful sizes at the average spots and the bigger sets at the best NW spots that pull in and focus the 290+ swells. Winds/Weather: Expect light and variable morning winds for most areas and some pockets of light offshore flow near passes and canyons. Winds will stay light through the first half of the day. NW winds around 10-15 knots move back in through the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still a lot of activity showing on the charts for the North Pacific…a lot of it is positioned in the higher-latitudes, which means that it is outside of Socal’s swell window, but there are a few systems that are forecast to dip some winds down far enough to set up some waves for us.

Surfwise, since these storms aren’t really all that strong and they aren’t positioned that great (at least for the majority of Socal). For the weekend…I am expecting a little bigger burst of WNW-NW energy (280-300) moves in on Friday and holds overnight into Saturday morning with some more consistent shoulder-head high surf at the better breaks and some overhead sets at the standouts.

Early next week we will see another decent NW swell (285-300 but best at spots that are exposed to the 290-300 swell directions) that would hit on Monday/Tuesday and bring in more chest-shoulder high surf for the average winter spots and some head high-overhead sets at the standouts.



Further out the NPAC charts continue to show a strong spring storm forming over the next few days…pulling together the most crucial swell-producing elements over the weekend and into Monday. Check out the charts…

Winds


Waves Heights


Swell Periods


This storm has a few days to actually develop but if it pulls together the way these charts are showing we would see a new round of WNW-NW swell (285-300) filling in on Wednesday (March 31) and then eventually peaking on Thursday (April 1). To make things even more interesting it looks like the storm producing this swell will drop down along the California coast…possibly even running some rain and wind over Socal right around the same time the swell arrives, which obviously wouldn’t be all that good for conditions. Fortunately we have got some time before we have to worry about the weather…but you are going to want to keep it in mind while planning your surf week.

Sizewise…this one looks good for shoulder-head high+ surf for most of the average WNW-NW facing spots…with some overhead+ sets mixing in if the local windswell gets a jump on the bandwagon as the storm passes over. The top NW facing spots could easily go several feet overhead, and possibly hit double-overhead at the really exposed spots. Remember that a lot of this is hypothetical…I will keep you guys posted as the storm develops over the weekend.

South Pacific
We are seeing some fun swell action from the SPAC but like I mentioned in the last forecast the time gaps between the bigger storms are still pretty long. There was a pretty good SW pulse (195-220) that peaked midweek and is now on the way down. This will fade Friday/Saturday but still put a few semi-rideable sets into the summer breaks. Sunday and Monday will see a mix of background S-SW energy (190-220) from a couple of weak storms that followed behind the bigger one. Most spots will see some knee-waist high waves from these background pulses…but a few of the standout SW breaks through OC and SD will have some chest high sets.

Further out high-pressure starts to set up shop to the east of New Zealand and flattens out the SW swell window of the SPAC…but it does open the door for a little bit more S swell to form up.



A new storm just pushed off Antarctica and will intensify over the next couple of days as it travels N-NNE. It is even supposed to sort of encapsulate itself…what is sometimes referred to as a “cut-off” low-pressure…and hold in places as it does, keeping a nice little area of fetch pointed our direction. If winds live up to the forecasts we should be seeing some new long-period S-swell (170-180) arriving around Thursday (April 1)…and then peaking more on Friday/Saturday (April 2-3).



Even Further out there is suddenly a lot of activity showing on the last couple of Long-range charts positioned out between New Zealand and Tahiti…and it looks like there will be some strong extra-tropical mixing about that time…there might be a good shot at some larger SW swell setting up for around April 8-10th…we will have to see how this shakes out.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, March 29th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Thursday’s Surf – Getting funky now

Thursday will have surf…but it looks like onshore winds will keep it from being much of a surf day…stupid wind.

We are going to have a mix of fading SW swell (195-215), building NW swell (290-300), and increasing local windswell.



Average spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf with some inconsistent shoulder high sets. The best spots…both SW and NW (and combo) will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the lower tides.

Winds do not look good for Thursday…I am hoping the weather models are overcalling the morning but they have been showing these winds for the last few runs so we might not be able to avoid them. A cold front is supposed to pass over the region tonight…setting up some W-NW winds really early Thursday morning that continue to strengthen throughout the day. At this point it looks like W winds around 5 knots for most areas in the morning with some 10-knot gusts in the more northern counties (SB/VEN). These winds will build into the 10-20 knot range by the afternoon with some gusts around 25 knots at times.



Like I said…the winds don’t look so good tomorrow...but I am not totally ready to write-off Thursday morning yet. Both the NWS and COAMPS models are showing some lighter pockets of wind from LA on down through San Diego…those winds are still onshore, just lighter than other spots. What is going to make the biggest difference is how early the winds get to blowing onshore…if the W flow just holds up overnight then we are pretty screwed…but if the winds lay down a bit after sunset and then don’t start pushing onshore until close to dawn there might be a little wiggle room for a morning session. Since we have swell in the water it might be worth checking the cams or the wind observations in the morning…we might get lucky and find a little surfy pocket here and there.

Make sure to check out the regional forecasts for the details for each county.

Regional/County Forecasts

Santa Barbara Surf Forecast
Ventura County Surf Forecast
Los Angeles County Surf Forecast
Orange County Surf Forecast
San Diego Surf Forecast

Here are the tides…

03/25/2010 Thursday
05:41AM LDT 4.9 H
01:02PM LDT -0.5 L
07:31PM LDT 3.9 H

Waves for Wednesday – the Combo swell continues

Wednesday will be a surf day.

In the water we will have a mix of SW swell (200-220), some NW swell (290-300), and a little dash of local WNW windswell…all of which are blending nicely together at the better exposed beaches. There are a few shadowing issues here and there…so make sure that you pick an area that is getting the full exposure. Check out the current “Nowcast” from the CDIP…



And here is what it is going to look like tomorrow...



Average spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent chest-shoulder high sets if the break has a little combo exposure. The best SW facing spots and the best combo spots will be in the shoulder-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in on the lower tides.

Winds look good on Wednesday…we will start off with mostly light and variable winds, even some light offshore flow in a few spots. Expect some pockets of patchy fog. This will burn off by the afternoon but the winds will shift onshore around the same time…and come in out of the NW at 10-15 knots along the really exposed breaks.



Looks fun tomorrow…there will be plenty of waves at the exposed areas…and some decent size at the standouts. Orange County and parts of San Diego are going to be the most exposed to this swell mix…but LA and Ventura will have their pockets of awesomeness as well. Santa Barbara gets a bit left out…but after all the west swells this winter I am not feeling all that bad for them. The tide is a little high in the morning so if you are venturing out to get it right at dawn you might want to stick with spots that can handle a little extra water.

I’m skipping the regional forecasts tonight…but they should be back in action tomorrow.

Have a good one…send me some photos if you get some good ones (and surf reports…I love surf reports).

03/24/2010 Wednesday
04:21AM LDT 4.6 H
12:16PM LDT -0.2 L
07:04PM LDT 3.5 H
11:51PM LDT 2.2 L

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 3/23/2010

Forecast Overview

The mix of SW and NW swell will hold for the next few days…possibly building in a little more from the WNW-NW by Friday while the SW swell fades out. Look for more combo swell over the weekend…and if the North Pacific has its way…we will probably see even more WNW/S-SW combo through most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Wednesday
The SW swell (200-220) and the NW swell (290-300) will hold on Wednesday…and there will even be a little more NW energy (295-300) from an ok, but poorly positioned storm in the Gulf of Alaska. Look for most exposed spots to be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent bigger sets showing on the lower tides. The standout SW facing spots and the excellent combo breaks, will have surf in the chest-shoulder high range with a few head high sets mixing in as well. Winds/Weather: Winds look good on Wednesday…the eddy cycles down a touch and we will start off with mostly light and variable winds for most areas as well as some pockets of patchy fog. This will burn off by the afternoon but the winds will shift onshore around 10-15 knots at the really exposed breaks.



Thursday
The mix of SW swell and NW energy will hold on Thursday… with the SW’er dropping slightly and the NW swell (290-300) getting a little boost from another pulse of energy coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. Wave heights will average in the waist-chest high range at most exposed spots. The standout NW/SW combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets sneaking at times. Winds/Weather: The wind looks a little iffy on Thursday…the various models are calling for increasing winds in the outer waters that are supposed to spin up the eddy a little more. Not sure how bad it will be at this point, but plan on there being some texture on the water for most spots…SB/Ventura will have more W-NW’erly flow while LA on down to the border get a variable/southerly tint to the bump. Hopefully things will stay pretty light…but don’t hold your breath waiting for glassy conditions.



Friday
Look for the SW/NW swell mix to continue through the morning on Friday...with most spots holding around waist-high+ on the sets with the standouts seeing some shoulder high+ sets. Later in the afternoon it looks like a new pulse of WNW-NW swell (280-300) may roll in…this is coming off a storm that is just forming on the edge of the Gulf of Alaska…so the swell isn’t totally carved in stone. If the swell comes in with some decent energy we will see the WNW-NW facing spots get a little bigger and more consistent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some overhead sets hitting the top NW spots in Ventura, the South Bay, and Southern San Diego around sundown. Winds/Weather: Still a bit funky…the eddy is supposed to still be sticking around but it may position itself a bit closer to the coast which would help to ease some of the morning tweakiness. Expect some W-SW winds around 5 knots for most areas and some stronger gusts up around SB and Ventura. By the afternoon 10-15+ WNW-NW winds will push into most areas.



Saturday
WNW-NW energy will back down on Saturday while the S-SW swell fades into the background as well. Look for most spots to hold in the waist-chest high+ range while the standout NW facing spots (and excellent combo spots) see some shoulder-head high surf. A few of the best breaks, mostly in South SD, will have some bigger sets…going a little overhead...during the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds are forecast to improve on Saturday...the eddy is supposed to shake itself off which would let our local winds go back to light/variable to light-offshore through the morning, and then just moderate W-WNW winds around 10-12 for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The NPAC storm refuses to just cool off…everytime it looks like storm activity is going to trail off and die it pulls itself back together and throws a bunch of storms right back into the forecast model. It is like a zombie…even though the real “life” is gone the storm track continues to spit out some decent looking low-pressures. Oh it isn’t setting up any sort of legit winter-strength storms…they are mostly weaker high-latitude systems…but they do look like they will send in some playful WNW-NW swell for Socal next week. Check out the wavewatchIII chart…the sucker just won’t stop.



Surfwise, since these storms aren’t really all that strong and they aren’t positioned that great (at least for the majority of Socal), I am not expecting any sort of big swell…just a series of chest-should high NW pulses (290-300) that filter through over the next few days. A bigger burst of WNW-NW energy (280-300) moves in on Friday and holds overnight into Saturday morning with some more consistent shoulder-head high surf at the better breaks and some overhead sets at the standouts.

Further out if the forecasts are on track, (and not out trying to eat someone’s brains), then we will see a decent WNW-NW swell (285-300) that would hit on Monday/Tuesday and bring in more chest-head high surf for the good winter spots and some overhead sets at the standouts. This one still has a ways to go before it really develops.

Even further out the GFS/wavewatchIII model really like a storm waaaaaaaaay out on the charts….check out the crack it is smoking…



…while it is nice to see some storm activity on the charts…I don’t put a lot of stock into something like this. With the seasons changing the long-range data becomes increasingly unstable the further out you go…and 6 ½ days is a ways out there. If things did pull together the way this chart wants them too we would see another round of WNW-NW swell hitting right around the beginning of April. I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one...hopefully it will still be on the charts a few days from now.

South Pacific
The SPAC continues to get more active…but there are some pretty big gaps between storms traveling through our swell window. We have a SW swell (210-220) already showing here in Socal that will peak tonight and hold into Wednesday before fading out slowly through the weekend. There will be a little more SW energy right on the heels of the first swell that arrives on Sunday and Monday that will help to keep some chest sets holding into early next week.

Further out high-pressure starts to set up shop to the east of New Zealand and flattens out the SW swell window of the SPAC…but it does open the door for a little bit more S swell to form up.



At this point it looks like a new storm will push off Antarctica in about 2-3 days and intensify as it travels N-NNE. If winds live up to the forecasts we should be seeing some new S-swell (170-180) arriving around April 4th. This one is still forming so check back for updates.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, March 25th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Surf for Tuesday - Burning the midnight oil

Tuesday will be a surf day

There will be a mix of leftover NW energy from the weekend, some background S-SW swell (180-210)…but the majority of the surf will be a mix of new SW swell (205-220) and some smaller medium-period NW swell (290-300). Overall the combo looks pretty fun...but you are going to want to be in the right spot since both swells have some shadowing issues.



Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range…with a little more consistency showing on the tide push. The standout SW facing spots, particularly the ones that can pull in some of the NW energy, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head high sets (again on the lower tides).

Winds/Weather: Winds look ok…but winds further off the coast are threatening to spin up the eddy a bit. Look for mostly variable to light/variable winds for most spots…the cleanest conditions will likely set up through SB down through the South Bay. OC and SD may have a touch of S-SW texture in a few spots.


I think it has the potental for some funlyness. It won't be great for most areas due to shadowing from Point Conception and the nearshore islands...but there wiil be enough juice in the water that it will be able to push in a few fun waves that could combo up for some playful sections here and there.

I would put in the tides but I am going to fall asleep at my desk and I want to get up and try and surf a midmorning session. One thing before I sign off though...I know a few of you are getting frustrated on the forecast "posts" namely that they aren't all that consistent in their timing. Generally I try to hit a 5-6pm forecast update...but being a mostly one man show means that occasionally I have to push around the update times so I can help with the kids/dogs/superheros. Thit week+ it has been a nearly catostrophic computer failure...which is now fixed we should be back on the normal afternoon/early evening update times.