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Friday will be a surf day…if the winds hold past the high tide that peaks right during the morning session.
In the water we will still have some WNW-NW swell (285-300) holding and some much smaller S-SW pulses sneaking into the combo areas. The morning is going to be really swampy with a 6.5’+ high tide hitting around 8:45am.
Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks will be in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets coming through on the lower tides. Expect a lot of softies through the morning and then a bit of a drain on the sets and the surf shape as the nearly 7’ high tide drops to a negative 1.5-1.7’ low. With luck the mix of swells will be able to set up at least a few hour window between the two extremes.
Weather looks good tomorrow…mostly light winds and clear skies (with some patchy fog). Look for mostly light and variable to light offshore winds through the morning. NW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon but may try to lay down later in the evening.
Since most of us have a holiday tomorrow you should have a little more flexibility to work around the tide…if your spot has some wind protection I would definitely wait for less water. I took the morning drive here on Thursday and that morning tide buried it almost everywhere.
Have a good one…and a happy new year!
Here are the tides…
01/01/2010 Friday 02:31AM LST 1.8 L 08:37AM LST 6.8 H swampy 04:00PM LST -1.6 L drainy 10:23PM LST 4.0 H
Surfwise we will have a good start to 2010 thanks to a very active North Pacific. Overlapping W-WNW swells will push in over the next few days mixing with some decent winds and some much smaller S-SW pulses. Looks like more storms are brewing in the forecast charts…so expect more surf rolling through most of next week and a potentially bigger shot of WNW energy around the 9th. (2010…holy future batman…It just hit me that my first son will graduate from high school in 2023! that is, unless we are still fighting skynet…crazy)
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – New Year’s Day 2010 WNW-NW swell (285-300) holds on Friday…mixing with some much smaller S-SW pulses. The morning is going to be really swampy with a 6.5’+ high tide hitting around 8:45am. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high sets on the lower tides. The standout NW facing breaks will be in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets coming through on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Look for mostly light and variable to light offshore winds through the morning. NW winds around 10-15 knots move in through the afternoon but may try to lay down later in the evening.
Saturday Another shot of WNW energy (this one more in the 280-300 range) arrives on Saturday and mixes with the fading WNW-NW energy from earlier in the week. Small S-SW pulses (170-185 and 210-220) hold in the background. The morning tide will still be an issue but as the peak pushes back to 9:30am there may be a little more of a dawn patrol window opening. Average spots will get a little more size…more chest-shoulder high on the lower tides. The better WNW facing breaks will be in the chest-head high range while the standout NW breaks (mostly in San Diego, Ventura, and the South Bay) will be in the shoulder-head high+ range with a few overhead+ sets mixing in on the lower afternoon tides. Winds/Weather: Still pretty nice with variable/offshore winds in the morning and NW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.
Sunday The WNW mix (280-300) starts to lose a little steam but still puts up plenty of waves. The high tide will still be bothering the morning/mid-morning but it will be both smaller is size and its peak will be further back to about 10:15…so again it looks like more of an earlier morning window opening. Sizewise we can expect more chest-shoulder high surf at the average WNW facing breaks. Standout NW spots see consistent chest-head high surf with some low-tide sets going overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Still pretty good…mostly light and variable morning winds but with a bit more NW flow setting up around Santa Barbara and Ventura. Look for increasing WNW-winds around 10-18 knots by the afternoon.
Monday The WNW energy will back off fast…not completely dropping out but it will feel considerably smaller than Sunday. Most spots will back down into the knee-waist high range with some chest high sets. Standout NW facing breaks will be more in the waist-chest high range but with a few shoulder high sets on the lower tides in the early morning. Winds/Weather: Weather will be breaking down a bit by early next week…nothing horrible but it looks like a variable onshore texture picking up pretty early in the day and then moderate onshore flow around 12-18 knots by the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific Like I mentioned in the overview…this has already been a pretty good winter…and it looks like our good wave fortune is going to continue into the early part of the new year. The North Pacific continues to be an extremely active ocean, with several well positioned storms moving or forecasted to move through our swell window over the next week. The storm track is operating right across the edge of the mid-latitudes which means that storms that spin off of Asia track across the North Pacific spending the majority of their time “over-water” in our swell window. In the past couple of seasons the storm track has been positioned much closer to the Aleutians which forced storms to drop down to send us surf…here check out the current set up…you can see the wind arrows tracking across the NPAC below the 300-degree swell-direction cutoff that we have in Socal.
And here is the wave heights set up by those winds…
As you can see the storms are stacking up across the Pacific…which means that we will be seeing more WNW swell on the way. We have a couple of overlapping WNW swells that hit Friday and into the weekend…nothing huge but good enough for some overhead waves at the standout NW breaks, particularly at spots that like the medium/short period swell energy. These waves will start to fade Sunday afternoon and continue to drop through Monday.
A new shot of W-WNW swell moves in on the 5th again setting up a round of playful chest-head high surf at the WNW facing spots and overhead sets at the standout NW breaks. These will hold through the 6th and then fade slowly through the 7-8th as a following, but smaller WNW pulse keeps the surf from dropping too fast.
Further out that big blob of low-pressure North of Hawaii continues to cycle through mid-latitude storms, and the next intense looking system will likely come through in about 4-5 days…if it lives up to forecasts we could be looking at another solid shot of WNW energy for around the 9-10th.
South Pacific The South Pacific isn’t totally shut down anymore…we are starting to see a couple of active hot spots brewing up around Antarctica that will be sending us some small, but at least rideable, S-SW swells from the SPAC. One area is the usually active region SE of New Zealand, which is showing some decent 30-40 knots of fetch forming over the next few days that could have some new SW swell on our beaches around Jan 10th.
Unfortunately that swell has to pass through the SPAC islands shadow (around Tahiti) so a lot of the size and consistency are going to get chewed out of it…still anything is better than the snoozefest that we had through the end of the 2009.
The other spot worth keeping an eye on is directly south of Southern California…a ridge of pressure across the SSW portion of our swell window has this stretch of ocean doing some weird (in a good way) things. The way the ridge is positioned it lets storms slip up around the 120W longitude line and push fairly northward before sliding over towards Chile. These storms are sending out a few small, but rideable pulses of S-SSE swell (170-190) that have hit over the last week or so. It looks like more is on the way for this upcoming weekend and for a lot of next week, with more heading in for the following weekend. Again nothing to get super excited about but it should keep a little cross up energy showing at the combo breaks.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thurday, December 31st, 2009
Thursday will be a surf day…if you don’t mind a little run-off leftover from Wednesday.
We will also have a new WNW-NW swell (285-300) that will be filling in throughout the day. The new swell will be showing up in Santa Barbara and Ventura in the morning…with some new energy starting to show in the other counties further south as well, just not as big…but the peak of the swell looks like it will arrive around mid-afternoon.
Sizewise the average W-WNW facing breaks will be in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder high and shoulder high+ sets at times at the better WNW exposed spots. The standout NW breaks will be running in the chest-head high range pretty consistently but as the tide drops into the afternoon I think that the best spots, particularly the breaks that like the shorter-period (10-13 second energy), will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead.
Winds and weather look a lot better tomorrow…this front is supposed to move out tonight setting up clear or partly clear skies tomorrow and light/variable to light offshore winds in the morning. NW winds around 10-14 knots will push through in the afternoon.
Overall it looks like a big improvement in size and conditions over Wednesday…water quality will not be great, some areas are seeing some pretty significant rainfall today…but it isn’t the first rain of the season so it probably isn’t the total toilet flush that it could have been. There will still be some tide problems in the morning as we see another winter-morning high tide…so if you plan to surf early make sure to check spots that can handle some extra water.
Here are the tides…Happy New Year’s Eve
12/31/2009 Thursday 01:39AM LST 2.0 L 07:50AM LST 6.8 H (swampy) 03:21PM LST -1.6 L 09:45PM LST 3.8 H
Wednesday will have some waves but with the weather expected to get all weird and the winds being a pain in the ass I don’t think it will be much of a surf day for most people.
Swellwise we are going to see a mix of dropping WNW swell (280-300) and some background S-SW swell mix from the Southern Hemi.
Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some chest high+ sets at times. The standout NW breaks, again in the usually “better on NW swells” regions of Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some sets going head high.
Winds and weather look funky…the forecast models are calling for a fast moving cold front to push through sometime on Wednesday and in the process mix in a weird pocket of moisture as it does. The current weather forecast is for cloudy skies and a chance of rain for the morning, with increasing onshore winds and showers for the afternoon, particularly up towards the Santa Barbara and Ventura areas.
Check out the COAMPS forecast for tomorrow morning…this is showing about 5am. According to this it looks like variable onshore/side shore winds for Ventura/SB. Offshore E winds for LA…and then onshore winds again down in San Diego and Orange County. When I see things like this on the forecast I mentally label it “unstable”, which usually means the model doesn’t know what is going to happen and is just picking random crap to show us.
That being said...I don’t think we should completely write-off tomorrow morning, there are some waves which, unless the wind is for sure howling onshore, means that it will be worth at least a cam-check in the morning. I wouldn’t plan on a lot of surfing, or it even being that great of surf if the winds are light…but at least there would be something to ride. Anyway conditions look a lot better later this week and into the weekend (more waves too)…you might want butter up the warden by doing a few chores...so you can score some in a few days.
Here are the tides…
12/30/2009 Wednesday 12:50AM LST 2.1 L 07:05AM LST 6.6 H (you suck tide!) 02:40PM LST -1.4 L 09:05PM LST 3.6 H
The new West Coast forecast has been posted up over on Transworld SURF…it even has a picture of my first car in it…1982 Cadillac Fleetwood. (Nothing like giving a 16-year-old a caddy.) Anyway it is also loaded up with a lot of forecast stuff...give it a check when you get a chance.
Our WNW swell mix (280-300) will be fading but will still manage to hold onto plenty of fun-sized surf. A small mix of S-SW swells will hold in the background but won’t do much more than crease up a few corners at the combo spots that can pull in both swells.
Look for average spots to continue to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf. Better WNW facing breaks see some chest-head high sets and the Standout NW spots (in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego) see more consistent shoulder-overhead surf with a few sets still going overhead+ through the morning at spots that can help power through the morning high tides.
Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore. Looks like most of the offshore flow will be through Santa Barbara and down through Northern LA. Spots further south will have lighter, but still clean, conditions on tap. Look for WNW winds around 10-15 knots to push in through the afternoon.
Overall I think that we are still going to have plenty of fun despite the fading swell…there will be enough energy in the lower-periods of this swell that even though we don’t get the full on dumpers that were coming through on Sunday/Monday it will probably start to feel more workable, and a few of the spots that shun the longer-period energy will actually start to work a bit more. If you can I would probably try to wait out or avoid the early morning high tide…it hurt shape in a lot of spots…but if you can’t you will definitely want to stick with breaks that have the WNW exposure AND can handle a high tide.
Speaking of which…here they are.
12/29/2009 Tuesday 06:20AM LST 6.2 H (smells a little swampy) 01:59PM LST -1.1 L 08:25PM LST 3.5 H
WNW energy begins fading on Tuesday and backs down through midweek when then weather will get a bit wonky. Look for cleaner conditions and new WNW-NW energy moving in on New Years even and into New Years day. Plenty more where that came from too, looks like lots of waves in the forecast. Though with the water so cold I am thinking about getting one of those heated wetsuit thingies.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Tuesday Our WNW swell mix (280-300) will be fading, losing both size and seeing the swell period drop down into the 13-14 second ranges. Small S-SW swells continue to hold in the background but don’t add a ton of size to the swell mix. Look for average spots to continue to see consistent chest-shoulder high surf. Better WNW facing breaks see some chest-head high sets and the Standout NW spots (in Ventura, the South Bay, and South San Diego) see more consistent shoulder-overhead surf with a few sets still going overhead+ through the morning. Winds/Weather: Winds look good for the morning…mostly light and variable to light/moderate offshore. Looks like most of the offshore flow will be through Santa Barbara and down through Northern LA. Spots further south will have lighter, but still clean, conditions on tap. Look for WNW winds around 10-15 knots to push in through the afternoon.
Wednesday The WNW swell continues to drop and turn a touch more NW’erly in swell direction as we move throughout the day. The average spots will fade down into the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks see some chest-shoulder high surf and rare bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Weather starts to get a little funky looking through the midweek…NW winds are forecast to spin up in the outer waters, setting up a bit of an eddy-looking circulation near the Coast. Look for NW winds around 10-13 knots for Santa Barbara/Ventura…sort of SE-ESE through LA, and S-SSE for San Diego and OC. Overall I am not expecting great conditions through Wednesday…and we might even see a touch of rain/drizzle as the front driving these winds pushes through the area.
Thursday – New Year's Eve We see a new pulse of WNW-NW energy (285-300) that comes through in the form of both local windswell and a bit of medium period energy from storms a touch further off the coast. Most spots will continue to see surf in the waist-chest high range with some inconsistent shoulder high waves moving through by the afternoon. Look for the top NW spots to be in the chest-head high range with some bigger waves moving in by the end of the day. Winds/Weather: Weather will improve on Thursday as new ridge of high-pressure starts to rebuild over Socal. Look for mostly light and variable to light offshore winds for the morning and just moderate NW flow around 10-12 knots developing through the afternoon.
Friday – New Year's Day Mix of windswell and medium-period WNW-NW energy (285-300) continues on Friday, possibly even filling in a little better down towards San Diego (compared to how it did on Thursday). Most spots continue with the chest-shoulder high surf while the top NW facing spots hold more in the chest-head high range with some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Looks nice at this point…mostly light and variable winds and slightly warmer beach temps. Expect clean conditions through the morning and light/mild onshore flow through the mid-afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific There is still a lot of stuff going on in the NPAC with plenty of storm activity roaming around in our swell window. At this point it looks like we have a series of overlapping WNW-NW swells headed our way for at minimum the next 7-8 days and very likely more on the way after that.
Check out the current set up…I know that I have mentioned the term “complex low-pressure” in the past, well we have another one developing. Basically there is a fairly stationary low pressure holding over the Aleutians/Bering Sea that is helping to swing a train of storms through the mid-latitudes.
Based on this forecast and what has formed over last few days…we can expect the current WNW swell mix to back down through mid-week, never quite dropping out completely but definitely smaller than Mon/Tues. Then new WNW-NW energy arrives on Thursday and helps to hold us in fun-size+ surf through Thurs/Friday. More overlapping pulses of WNW swell hit on Saturday and Sunday and it looks like more on tap for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
What is really interesting about this latest run is the larger low-pressure that is set to form on the last frame of the animation. (I stall out the video so you can check it out). Basically it looks like the “anchor-low” in the upper latitudes swings around and scoops up a warmer low-pressure and pulls it into some extra-tropical goodness. This helps to generate a much larger and more intense system…check out how it shows on the wavewatchIII swell model.
As you can see it looks like a large shot of WNW swell heading for Hawaii by mid-next week (5-6th). If you measure out the distance it looks like Socal would see this swell on the 8-10th…likely peaking more on the 9-10th but depending on how much energy is cranked out in the longer-periods. It is way to early to guess on sizes but if it lives up to even this portion of the forecast it could be good for at least some overhead+ surf at the top spots. I will keep you posted as we get closer.
South Pacific Is this still an ocean? I guess I shouldn’t be so hard on the South Pacific…the NPAC is definitely picking up all of the slack, but man it would be nice to have a bit more combo to the swell. At this point there aren’t really any sort of significant Southern Hemi swells in the water, and none on the forecast. We are mostly just going to see a low-level background buzz of SW energy that never really stops but never really does anything for us either. Long-range charts are showing a slightly better looking SW pulse (but still very shadowed and small compared to the NPAC energy) hitting around Jan 10th.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, December 31st, 2009
Monday is going to be a surf day…in some places a very good surf day
Our pretty solid WNW swell (280-300) will be holding through Monday morning, well really throughout the whole day, but losing a little steam by the afternoon. There is a small mix of S-SW swells that are hiding in the background but it seems like they are mostly getting steamrolled by the stronger NPAC swell, but will occasionally throw a crease into the longer WNW lines at the really good combo spots.
Surfwise…look for the average W-WNW facing breaks to have surf in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets mixing in. Better WNW spots, with more direct exposure to the swell, will be in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead at times.
Standout NW facing breaks, like those in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego (particularly Southern San Diego), will have consistent surf in the head high to a couple-of-feet-overhead range with some sets going a few feet overhead…maybe a little bigger on better parts of the tide swing.
Weather/wind look good tomorrow…look for light to moderate offshore winds through the morning…going mostly NE for Ventura and Santa Barbara and then shifting more ENE’erly as you head down into LA, OC, and SD. Winds are expected to stay light most of the day…shifting a little more northerly by later in the afternoon. If we get lucky it looks like clean conditions could stick around in many spots for most of the day. Man I love winter winds.
Points and Reefs are definitely going to have the best, most makeable, shape…with points/reefs in Ventura, the South Bay and San Diego seeing the most size. Beach breaks will be pretty lined up unless you are lucky enough to have some sort of structure to break things up or a serious sandbar. The water is freaking cold, might be worth breaking out the 4/3.
Here are the tides…hope you guys had a good Christmas!
12/28/2009 Monday
05:36AM LST 5.8 H 01:18PM LST -0.5 L 07:43PM LST 3.3 H 11:59PM LST 2.2 L
Looks like we are going to have some fun surf for the next few days…a new round of playful WNW swell moves in on Christmas and mixes with some smaller S swell. This will drop a little on Saturday but remain fun-sized and rideable. A bigger W-WNW swell hits on Sunday and will hold waves through Monday and the first part of next week.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday – Christmas Day Looks like Santa is going to bring us a fun pulse of combo swell…we will have a new W-WNW swell (275-300), some local windswell, and some S swell (175-190). Most spots will continue to be playful in the waist-chest high range with some occasional shoulder high peaks as the swells blend together. Top WNW-NW facing breaks and the best NW combo spots mostly through San Diego, will be in the chest-head high range with some overhead sets mixing as well. The bigger waves will be a little inconsistent but there should be enough inbetweeners for you to try out the new board that Santa got you. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions with light-variable to light-offshore flow in the morning. Some weak to moderate W-WNW winds around 8-10 knots develop through the afternoon.
Saturday The WNW swell (now 285-300) that filled in on Christmas will be losing a little steam, while the weaker S swell holds in the background. Most spots will have surf in the waist-chest high range with some rare shoulder high waves. Standout NW facing breaks will continue to see shoulder-head high surf with some much less consistent head high+ sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: Look for clean conditions for the morning with mostly light and variable winds. Building onshore bump around 10-14 knots out of the WNW will push in through the afternoon.
Sunday New W-WNW swell (275-300) sends in some more consistent and larger surf as we move through the dawn patrol…with both the size and the consistency of the bigger sets increasing as we head toward the afternoon. Look for most W-WNW facing breaks to see shoulder-overhead surf while the standout NW breaks, mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, see consistently head high to a couple of feet overhead surf and some bigger sets going a few feet overhead (possibly bigger down toward Southern SD). Winds/Weather: Winds and weather look decent, more light and variable conditions early in the day and only moderate onshore bump (around 10-12 knots) for the afternoon.
Monday Overall surf heights look about the same as Sunday as the W-WNW swell peaks and possibly pulls in a little more short-period energy thanks to a local cold front that moves through the area. Right now I am a little iffy on the size increase but the potential is there. At this point expect more shoulder-overhead surf for the average spots and sets going a few feet overhead at the top spots. Winds/Weather: Getting a little funky, chance of rain and some increasing onshore winds as the cold front moves in. This may end up being sort of a mild-moderate front so winds may not be too bad…but I would definitely keep in mind that conditions won’t be as good as the weekend.
Long-Range
North Pacific Still lots of storm and swell activity setting up in the long-range forecast…as you read in the short-range there is a solid looking WNW swell (275-300) that arrives on Sunday Dec 27 and begins peaking that night and holding strong (if not bigger) into Dec 28. Weather nerd warning: Here is a little video that I put together showing the storm on the NOAA/GOES satellites…since I have some new screen capture software you can see the mouse moving around. I would watch it in HD if you can...click the HD button on the player.
The most important things that I was looking for in that animation was the position, movement track, and the overall size of this system…as you watch the video you can see me engage the lat/long overlay that helps me estimate all three. Further in the video I pick the HDW-Low winds (which are the High-Density Satellite Derived winds from 0-10,000) and see what they have been estimating. Lastly I pull in the image through the zoom feature, which is nice to get a closer look at the circulation of the storm. In particular I am looking at the clouds behind the front of the storm…these are pretty shredded and almost look like a bunch of fast moving cotton balls or popcorn...these are a good thing to see because it means that the wind throughout that part of the storm is blowing from the upper atmosphere all the way down to the surface, which is where it produces our surf. The more shredded the warmer, lower level clouds (the dark grey, which equals warmer stuff in the IR), the more the wind is getting time over the water.
In comparing these satellite images against the WINDSAT data, the GFS wind/weather model, as well as the wavewatchIII model it looks like everything is in pretty good agreement with this storm.
From a surf perspective, I am seeing decent circulation and size for that storm but it stopped tracking East and is now sort holding position just on the edge of the Gulf of Alaska. This isn’t a totally horrible thing but it does mean that the really intense part of the storm won’t get much closer to Socal, which means more swell decay as the energy moves toward us, which eventually means smaller surf.
Based on all of this…I am still expecting the swell to arrive in Socal late on Saturday night and be filling in by morning on the 27th…most exposed spots should have new waves for the dawn patrol but won’t see the biggest size until later in the afternoon/evening. By then we can expect almost all W-WNW facing breaks to have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some less consistent overhead faces sneaking in at times. The standout NW facing breaks will be running consistently head high with sets hitting a couple feet to a few feet overhead. The best deepwater breaks down toward Southern SD may have some bigger sets. This swell looks like it will peak overnight into Monday but may have some wind/weather problems as a local cold front moves into the area.
Further Out there are still a couple of storms showing in the long-range charts (though not as intense as the storm we currently have running through the NPAC). If these pull together the way the forecast thinks they will we should see more WNW energy around the 31st and possibly through the first few days of 2010.
South Pacific Most of the South Pacific is still pretty boring…mostly just the summer laziness that sets up down there while it is out of storm season…but there was one area of decent looking fetch that spun up straight south of Socal about a week ago.
Anyway this fetch hung around in a decent position for a couple of days and it looks like we are going to see some playful chest-shoulder high S swell (175-190) that arrives on the 25-26th. I am not sure how consistent it will be, since the storm wasn’t that intense and it was sort of moving at a weird angle (not directly towards us which would have been the best). Still it looks like some fun surf at the better s-facing spots…and maybe even some fun combo peaks as it mixes with the steady WNW-NW energy.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, December 28th, 2009
On one hand the surf will be dropping and we can expect smaller and steeper NW angled energy as well as some trace SW swell…on the other hand the conditions will be much cleaner and most of us will have work off which is usually a pretty good reason to go to the beach and try and find some waves. I think it will be a marginal day in terms of size and swell-shadowing but if you have an exposed spot nearby you should at least be able to get out and ride something.
Size is going to vary a lot between exposed and non-exposed areas…the swell periods are really starting to shorten up and the swell direction is getting a lot more northerly (290-300 with most of the energy above 295), which means a lot fewer exposed breaks and less swell refraction into areas that don’t have the direct exposure (but would have been able to pull in some size if the swell had a longer-period). Check out the CDIP Nowcast…you can really see the areas affected by the shift.
Surfwise most of the “average” breaks will be in the knee-waist high range tomorrow…maybe some rare chest high sets as the weak SSW swell combos up with the smaller windswell. The better WNW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura and the South Bay, will be in the waist-chest high range a lot more consistently than other areas. Standout NW breaks, mostly through Southern San Diego, will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Expect soft, windswelly shape even at the top breaks.
Winds look good tomorrow…mostly light and variable in the morning with some mild/moderate onshore flow NW 10-14 knots by the afternoon.
With the mostly small/soft surf on tap I don’t think that Thursday will amount to much fun…but there are a few breaks that should have some small/rideable/semi-playful size…so we shouldn’t write it completely off. If you have work off tomorrow I would probably skip over the dawn patrol…let things warm up a touch and make sure to bring the small wave gear. Hope you guys find a few.
Here are the tides…
12/24/2009 Thursday 02:49AM LST 4.1 H 09:38AM LST 2.2 L 02:14PM LST 2.9 H 08:23PM LST 1.5 L
Oh and I was looking at the storm forming ‘out the back’ that will be sending us waves for the 27th…today and tomorrow are going to be the days that form the majority of the swell, so I don’t have a lot of the actual remote sensing data, but the visible imagery looks pretty good so far…check it out…I even have some quick video.
Just based on that quick animation I think that we are going to see a pretty decent shot of WNW swell as we head into Sunday/Monday. I should have more information tomorrow as more of the data gets updated.
Our swell mix, which starts off sort of W-WNW, will shift more NW’erly and drop throughout the day…look for the morning swell direction to be about 275-300, and the by the afternoon it will have shifted more to the 290-300 range. Small SSW swell (190-210) will hold in the background.
Check out how the swell shifts and fades through the day…
Surf size is really going to depend on where you are located and when you surf tomorrow. San Diego will stay fairly big all day, with most of the energy hitting through Southern SD. Average spots in that county will be around chest-head high while the standout NW spots see some overhead+ sets mixing in.
The NW spots up towards Ventura and a lot of the South Bay…will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high and head high+ sets through the morning but the steeper swell angle and dropping energy will start to shave off some size by the afternoon.
The lesser exposed spots, like most of the breaks through Orange County, Santa Barbara, and North LA, will be in the waist-chest high range but with a few more consistent chest-shoulder high sets through the morning. These areas, because of the more northerly swell angle, will drop off the fastest as things switch around.
Windwise things look pretty good…mostly light/moderate N-NNE winds in the morning, which are a little side-offshore for some areas and really offshore for others. Looks like super chilly am air temps and the water itself isn’t going to be feeling all that great thanks to the brutal winds that pushed through on Tuesday. I would definitely plan on the winter suit for the dawn patrol tomorrow…maybe booties and a squid-lid if you live in a spot that lets the morning winds blow through with some extra pep. Afternoon winds look remarkably light…so there might be a chance for some afternoon surf, particularly at spots that already have some wind protection (kelp, high cliffs, some sort of structure).
So like I said it looks like a surf day tomorrow…still plenty of swell, and it looks like shape should be pretty clean in the morning since the winds shift offshore a couple of hours before sunup. Expect that stacked up windswell shape and slight gutlessness that you get with shorter-period swells but there will plenty of waves and it should still be crossed up enough that most spots will have some decent corners. You might want to wait for things to warm up a little (air temps are supposed to creep up tomorrow)…I think that the winds and the swell will stick around long enough to keep fun waves through midday…but watch for a bit more onshore bump and dropping swell the later in the day you hit it.
Here are the tides…
12/23/2009 Wednesday 02:06AM LST 3.9 H 07:55AM LST 2.6 L 12:38PM LST 3.4 H 07:41PM LST 1.2 L
In case you need something to look at since the wind is howling onshore…my latest forecast is up over at Transworld SURF.
It talks about how conditions are going to clean up later this week, we get more swell, and NorCal pulls in another solid shot of WNW just after Christmas (and Socal doesn’t do so bad itself).
We will have a mix of building WNW-NW wind/stormswell and some medium period WNW energy (275-300 all mixed together) along with a touch of SSW swell from the Southern Hemi.
Surfwise the average spots are going to see some sloppy waist-shoulder sets, while the average WNW facing spots see more consistent chest-head high surf. The standout NW breaks, the spots will excellent exposure to the swell mix, will be consistently shoulder-overhead on sets with some bigger waves sneaking through at times. Unfortunately the most exposed spots will also be the most exposed to the onshore wind so shape looks pretty ugly for most of the area.
Winds will be out of the WNW-NW around 10-15 knots for the morning with gusts hitting around 15-20 at the average spots. The really windy areas will have 15-20 knots winds in the morning with gusts topping out around 25-knot+ at times. Winds will stay around the same speed most of the day.
Personally I think Tuesday is going to be a good day to stay in bed…onshore winds, cold air temps, and sloppy surf just doesn’t motivate me very well. I do however think that we might want to give the cams and wind stations a quick check in the morning, sometimes these fronts don’t push through the way the models expect and there is a small window of surf time early in the day. Also the NW wind direction doesn’t blow everything completely out…there are a few small pockets in Santa Barbara and North LA that don’t get super junky…the only drawback with those spots is they also don’t pull in much NW swell, particularly when the periods are short, so you might see cleaner shape but much smaller surf. I always think it is prudent to give the surf a check anytime there is swell in the water, despite what the winds say they are going to do.
Here are the tides…lets cross our fingers that the winds come through lighter and cleaner than the forecast says.
12/22/2009 Tuesday 01:22AM LST 3.7 H 06:23AM LST 2.7 L 11:38AM LST 3.9 H 07:03PM LST 0.8 L
Looks like steady, overlapping W-WNW-NW swells will continue to push in as we move throughout the week. Winds and weather will get a little funky on Tuesday as the first swell peaks but conditions should clean up fast letting us get back into groomed shape by Thursday. Look for some small S-SSW swell to hang in the background for the next few days and then a slightly stronger shot of S swell to arrive as we head into next weekend.
Short Range (next 3 days)
Tuesday Is not looking like a surf day. In fact it is looking downright ugly. A dry-cold front is expect to spin up NW winds and windswell to mix with the medium/short-period W-WNW energy that we saw come up on Monday. Wave heights will be in the chest-head high range for most exposed spots while top spots go a couple of feet overhead, but unfortunately shape is going to be pretty poor almost everywhere due to the stiff onshore W-WNW winds that snap through around 15-20 knots throughout the day. Winds/Weather: Breezy, cold, and onshore conditions will be on tap through the morning. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-15 knots early…and then gusts hitting 15-20+ knots by the afternoon.
Wednesday Still looks a little lumpy on Wednesday but conditions should clean up in a few areas, particularly around Orange and San Diego Counties. Our W-WNW swell mix will continue to hold with plenty of local windswell and some longer-period NW swell (290-300) that will fill later in the day. Small SSW swell will hold through the background. Most spots will continue to see chunky, stacked up chest-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets mixing in at spots that like the windswell shape. Top NW facing breaks, mostly through Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego will have shoulder-overhead surf with some sets going a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Winds are forecast to shift out of the NNW for Santa Barbara and Ventura (which leaves some cleaner conditions here and there.) Down in LA, OC and SD, the winds will be more Northerly, which will put sideshore to offshore flow along most breaks. I don’t think it will be super clean, particularly since the swell will be lumpy, but it won’t be the hacked up mess that rolled through on Tuesday.
Thursday Will see a mix of fading WNW energy (that wind/stormswell mix), some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) that fills in a little more and gets a little more WNW’erly, as well as another boost of background S swell (175-190). Most spots are going to continue to run in the playful waist-chest high range while the top NW facing breaks see some chest-head high surf. Winds/Weather: New ridge of high-pressure is expected to build in on Thursday, pushing the morning winds into a light offshore flow and starting to warm up air temps again. Look for clean conditions in the morning and light to mild winds on tap for the afternoon.
Christmas Friday Looks like Santa is going to bring us a fun pulse of combo swell…we will have a new W-WNW swell (275-300), some local windswell, and some S swell (175-190). At this point it looks like a little bit of a slow start to the morning but the swell mix will fill in more as we move throughout the day. Most spots will continue to be playful in the waist-chest high range with some occasional shoulder high peaks as the swells blend together. Top WNW-NW facing breaks and the best NW combo spots, will be in the chest-head high range with some overhead+ sets mixing as well. The bigger waves will be a little inconsistent but there should be enough inbetweeners for you to try out the new board that santa got you. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions with light-variable to light-offshore flow in the morning. Some weak to moderate W-WNW winds around 8-10 knots develop through the afternoon.
Long-Range
North Pacific Lots and lots of storm activity lining up in the North Pacific…I know I said it last week but this winter is so much better than last year that it is getting comical. Check this out…I pulled the wavewatchIII swell charts and stacked them up into one image and dropped numbers on each of the swell events that it has in the forecast. Currently it is showing 6 different swells that will blend in pretty much a long string of surf that will stretch through the end of 2009 and probably into the first few days of 2010.
To get a little more detailed…right now I am for sure expecting a mix of W-WNW wind/storm swell that will pulse up on Monday, peak overnight into Tuesday, and then start a slow fade through Wednesday/Thursday. This one looks good for head high to overhead surf at the top spots but will have some wind issues as a cold-front rolls through.
The next swell following this first batch will arrive throughout the day on Christmas…it will be another WNW-NW swell (275-300 but with most of the energy around 285-300) that comes through with some longer swell periods. Looks good for chest-shoulder waves at most WNW-NW spots and some inconsistent overhead sets at the top NW breaks.
Further out, check out swell #4 on those images…yeah the dark red one. The wind/swell models have been showing that forming for a few days now and they seem to really like it despite the fact that the winds aren’t incredibly strong. I am a little skeptical on what they are calling for size…but I do think at minimum we are going to get some fun surf from it. Look for this swell to start to arrive and peak on Dec 27th with surf running shoulder-head high at average WNW spots and overhead+ waves at the standouts. This one looks like it will send out some very long-period energy, 20-22 second stuff, so it may be a bit funky as it arrives and refracts all over Socal, we will have to wait and see how it really develops.
Even further out into the long-range it looks like we will see another pulse of WNW swell around Dec 30th…and possibly another shot that arrives in the first couple days of January…these are way out on the charts, but like I usually say…it sure is nice to see them on the charts.
South Pacific Most of the South Pacific is still pretty boring…mostly just the summer laziness that sets up down there while it is out of storm season…but there was one area of decent looking fetch that spun up straight South of Socal a few days ago. Check it out on the windsat data from MOST (the Marine Observing Systems Team…it almost sounds like a super hero group...actually when you think about it they control awesome satellites, have the ability to launch rockets, and can ask astronauts to give them a hand...they are a super hero group!).
Anyway this fetch hung around in a decent position for a couple of days and it looks like we are going to see some playful chest-shoulder high S swell (175-190) that arrives on the 25-26th. I am not sure how consistent it will be, since the storm wasn’t that intense and it was sort of moving at a weird angle (not directly towards us which would have been the best). Still it looks like some fun surf at the better s-facing spots…and maybe even some fun combo peaks as it mixes with the steady WNW-NW energy.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, December 24th, 2009
