Sunday, December 20, 2009

Monday’s Surf – New W-WNW swell arrives

Monday looks like a surf day but we won’t see too much of the new W-WNW swell until later in the afternoon.

For the morning we can expect mostly a leftover mix of WNW energy (280-300) from the weekend and some background SSW swell (190-210). New W-WNW swell...(275-300) moves in to the northerly counties through the morning and filters further south as we move throughout the day. This new swell will come through with some medium to short-periods, starting around 14-seconds and then dropping to about 10-12 by the time the swell peaks which will give it a sort of punchy-windswell almost storm-swell feel as it fills in. Unfortunately the “storm-swell” term is a little too correct…since there is a pretty decent cold front right on the heels of this swell that is going to hack up conditions pretty bad as we head into Tuesday, when the swell peaks.

Anyway back to Monday’s surf…for the morning look for the average WNW facing breaks to be in the waist high range with some chest high sets. The better NW facing breaks will be more consistently in the chest-shoulder high range…particularly through the South Bay and San Diego areas.

Further north, up towards Ventura and Santa Barbara, we can expect this new W-WNW swell mix to be showing new waves through the morning with the average/above-average spots holding around chest-shoulder high range. The standout WNW-NW breaks, particularly those that like shorter period swells, will have some shoulder-head high surf by midday with some overhead sets mixing in. Look for the most size and consistency through Ventura and smaller surf as you move north.

Winds and weather look ok for the morning, mostly light and variable to light offshore for most areas, maybe a few touches of texture at a few of the more exposed beaches. Look for building W-SW winds around 10-15 knots by the afternoon. Over Monday night the forecast is calling for the winds to come onshore out of the WNW around 15-20+ knots with gusts of near 40 knots and small craft advisories being tossed all over the place. Fortunately it isn’t supposed to last long, offshore conditions are set to return later in the week.

Overall for Monday I think that we will have some fun. Winds will be ok for the morning and there is new swell filling in (even if it isn’t doing a whole lot for most regions early in the day)…top it off with the high-tide peak pushing further back in the morning and it looks like we will be able to find a few playful waves. Points and Reefs will continue to have the best shape…but a well-formed sandbar or something to help crease up the swell should be able to pull in an occasional makeable corner as well. Holiday break is going to be in full effect so expect fairly crowded conditions (particularly for a Monday)…but it is the holidays so hopefully we will be able to cut each other a little slack despite the extra bodies.

Here are the tides…

12/21/2009 Monday
12:39AM LST 3.6 H
05:15AM LST 2.7 L
10:55AM LST 4.5 H
06:28PM LST 0.4 L

Speaking of the holidays…my family is also on their holiday break, which means that I am going to be a little off schedule myself so I can hang out with them. The forecast updates should be posted as usual but I may be a little slow (uh slower than usual) in responding to emails. Hope you guys have a great week! - Adam


Anonymous said...

You are always talking about how much you dislike flipper, check out The Oatmeal, five reasons to punch a dolphin in the face.

Adam Wright said...

that is pretty funny...and some very valid reasons to punch a dolphin. Classic.