Surf for Thursday – Cleaner but with the surf fading away

Thursday looks like a below average surf day…

On one hand the surf will be dropping and we can expect smaller and steeper NW angled energy as well as some trace SW swell…on the other hand the conditions will be much cleaner and most of us will have work off which is usually a pretty good reason to go to the beach and try and find some waves. I think it will be a marginal day in terms of size and swell-shadowing but if you have an exposed spot nearby you should at least be able to get out and ride something.



Size is going to vary a lot between exposed and non-exposed areas…the swell periods are really starting to shorten up and the swell direction is getting a lot more northerly (290-300 with most of the energy above 295), which means a lot fewer exposed breaks and less swell refraction into areas that don’t have the direct exposure (but would have been able to pull in some size if the swell had a longer-period). Check out the CDIP Nowcast…you can really see the areas affected by the shift.



Surfwise most of the “average” breaks will be in the knee-waist high range tomorrow…maybe some rare chest high sets as the weak SSW swell combos up with the smaller windswell. The better WNW facing breaks, mostly in Ventura and the South Bay, will be in the waist-chest high range a lot more consistently than other areas. Standout NW breaks, mostly through Southern San Diego, will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Expect soft, windswelly shape even at the top breaks.

Winds look good tomorrow…mostly light and variable in the morning with some mild/moderate onshore flow NW 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



With the mostly small/soft surf on tap I don’t think that Thursday will amount to much fun…but there are a few breaks that should have some small/rideable/semi-playful size…so we shouldn’t write it completely off. If you have work off tomorrow I would probably skip over the dawn patrol…let things warm up a touch and make sure to bring the small wave gear. Hope you guys find a few.

Here are the tides…

12/24/2009 Thursday
02:49AM LST 4.1 H
09:38AM LST 2.2 L
02:14PM LST 2.9 H
08:23PM LST 1.5 L

Oh and I was looking at the storm forming ‘out the back’ that will be sending us waves for the 27th…today and tomorrow are going to be the days that form the majority of the swell, so I don’t have a lot of the actual remote sensing data, but the visible imagery looks pretty good so far…check it out…I even have some quick video.





Just based on that quick animation I think that we are going to see a pretty decent shot of WNW swell as we head into Sunday/Monday. I should have more information tomorrow as more of the data gets updated.

Tuesday’s Surf – mostly leftovers

Tuesday will be rideable but I think that the lack of swell and high tides will keep it from being a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of NW energy (290-300 and a combo of local windswell as well as some weak medium period energy), some background SW swell (200-220) and some weak tropical S swell (180-190) from former TS Kevin.



Wave heights for tomorrow look a bit on the small side. Lots of the average breaks will be in the knee-waist high range...and fairly soft/close to shore on the shape. The standout combo breaks, mostly through San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be around waist-chest high on the sets...maybe a rare plus set sneaking in on the lower tides. Long waits and mush-mush shape will be the norm.

Winds look ok...maybe slightly eddish in the morning. The forecast models are calling for some patchy (but thick) fog to form up overnight as things sort of cool off. The fog looks like it might spin up some southerly winds...sort of variable to light S...through San Diego and OC. It should be lighter further north but I would plan for a touch of onshore texture for spots up there as well if the fog gets a good foothold. Afternoon winds will be WNW around 10-12 knots...but watch for them to back off later in the evening.



It won’t be good enough to spend a lot of time hunting down surf tomorrow...the weaker swell and the tides will keep so many spots on the soft side that it might be hard to motivate for close to shore crumblers. I would bring a board that works with small soft waves, even at the top spots...the extra foam or fishy shape will help you have a little more fun. If you live near a standout region you might be able to slip out really early and take advantage of the super early morning low tide...nautical twilight is around 5:30am (actual sunrise is 6:30am)...there might be a little wiggle room on the shape if you can motivate...but remember that you are motivating for small leftovers.

02:38AM LDT 0.0 L
08:55AM LDT 4.1 H
02:10PM LDT 2.1 L
08:03PM LDT 5.5 H

Friday’s surf – More smallish waves...but at least it is Friday.

Friday will be another day with decent conditions but small surf.

It won’t be totally flat...but expect to wait around for rideable waves even at the top breaks.

We are going to have a micro-mix of S-SW leftovers and some weak WNW energy (mostly local windswell).


This picture of the swell model is so boring that it makes me want to take a nap.

Wave heights are going to hold around ankle-knee high+ at most of the average exposed breaks. The standout S-SW facing spots, with good shallow sandbars (or reefs) will be in the knee-waist high range on sets...and there may be even a rare bigger set sneaking through on the tide swing.

Winds look good...mostly light and variable through the morning with overcast skies. W winds around 10-14 knots and clearing skies will push through during the afternoon.

Like the last couple of days it won’t be worth driving very far to look for surf...so if you find a peak close to home it would be good to jump on it before the building tide swamps it out. Small wave gear will still be the most fun...and if you can you might want to try and surf around the drain-out lower tide that hits mid morning.

Here are the tides...happy Friday!

12:52AM LDT 5.2 H
08:27AM LDT -0.6 L
03:21PM LDT 3.9 H
08:33PM LDT 2.4 L

Surf on Thursday – a few more small ones

Thursday won’t really be a surf day but there will be a few rideable lines that sneak through every once in a while.

We are going to have a mix of fading/background S-SW swell and a bit of local windswell.



Most of the average spots will continue to see surf around knee high with a few rare knee-high+ sets. The standout S-SW facing breaks (with good sandbars or reefs) will be more consistently around waist high on the sets.

Winds will be similar to the last few days...light and variable, with overcast skies, through the morning. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the WNW-NW around 10-14 knots.

There aren’t really any best bets for tomorrow...like I said it won’t be totally flat, but it will be pretty small and not all that consistent, which doesn’t really help things...the S-SW facing spots will be slightly better but not much of an improvement over the other areas. I would stick to the small wave gear and try to avoid the extremely low tide that rolls through early in the morning.

Here are the tides...

07:30AM LDT -1.0 L
02:20PM LDT 3.7 H
07:01PM LDT 2.4 L

Waves for Wednesday – A few small ones

Wednesday will have a few small waves...it will be rideable but not very energetic.

We are going to see a mix of leftover WNW energy, some background SW swell, and a touch of building local windswell.

Most spots will be in the knee-waist high range while the standout WNW facing combo spots see some inconsistent chest high sets. Shape looks like it will be mostly soft with some occasionally faster sections.

Winds look a little better...check out the COAMPS for tomorrow...this is for around 7-8 am.



You can see that there is a little bit of circulation over Catalina...sort of like a mini-eddy. Based on this model winds look the best in The South Bay, Southern Ventura, and San Diego...Santa Barbara looks ok...but OC looks like it will have some southerly flow in the morning which is a bummer.

Overall I think it is going to be a lot like Tuesday but with a touch less size in the morning. It will be more fun if you bring your small wave gear...longboards and fish...and you can expect to sit a little bit between sets. I still wouldn’t drive very far unless you are absolutely jonesing to paddle out...just don’t expect a lot from a size/shape standpoint. The biggest, and I use the term loosely, surf will be around San Diego and Southern Ventura, but there should be a few playful waves in the other areas as well.

Here are the tides...

02:57AM LST 1.0 L
08:51AM LST 5.1 H
03:29PM LST -0.3 L
09:34PM LST 4.6 H