Surf for Thursday – Still a few rideable ones

Thursday will be rideable…and with a lot of spots seeing water-temps in the upper 60’s (if not higher), I think we can call it a “small surf day”. Nothing super exciting, but worth washing the dust off if you have a spare hour or so.

We are going to have a mix of fading NW energy, small SW swell (200-220), some weak tropical energy from Kevin, and some increasing local windswell. Again it seems like a lot going on, but all of the energy is pretty small and won’t amount to a ton of surf on the beach.



Wave heights will be in the knee-waist high range at most of the average spots (both S facing and NW facing). The standout combo breaks will be more consistently around waist high with a few chest high sets sneaking through on the lower morning tides.

Winds look decent as well…mostly light and variable through the morning with maybe a couple of small pockets of texture at the more exposed areas. WNW winds around 10-12 knots (with stronger gusts) will move in through mid-afternoon.



The fishy shapes and the bigger boards will be the best call tomorrow…something with a little extra volume to power through soft shape and the lulls between sets. I would try and get on it early when the tides are a bit better…the closer you can get to sunup the better. Look for the most consistent surf at the combo spots in San Diego, OC, and Southern Ventura...but don’t spend a lot of time driving to those areas, they will only be marginally better than the other combo spots.

Here are the tides…

03:25AM LDT 0.1 L
09:31AM LDT 4.5 H
03:11PM LDT 1.4 L
09:06PM LDT 5.5 H

Waves for Wednesday – a hint of the tropical

Wednesday looks surfable...but again the tides and small swell mix will keep it from being much of a “surf day”.

We are going to see a mix of WNW-NW energy (both weak leftovers from the NPAC and some local NW windswell), some tropical S-SW swell (190-210) from former TS Kevin, and some background SW energy from the Southern Hemisphere. On paper it sounds like a lot going on...but it won’t amount to much on the beach, particularly as the higher tides move in and swamp-thing it.



Average spots, ones that only get some of the swell mix (or are tide-sensitive), will be in the knee-waist high range on Wednesday...maybe a few chest high sneakers on the tide push through the dawn patrol. The standout breaks and excellent combo spots will be more consistently around waist high with more chest high sets, and maybe a rare chest high+ wave showing through the morning. Look for the biggest surf through the combo spots in San Diego and Southern Ventura...but expect a few waves at the combo spots in the other regions as well.

Winds look ok...sort of light and variable to variable-onshore in the morning. Really the wind models are sort of mixed bag on the forecast for tomorrow. The COAMPS is calling for offshore winds (which it has been calling for all week) and the NWS stuff is showing either light/variable to light westerly. Personally I think it is going to be pretty similar to the last couple of days...sort of eddyish, but sort of heavier, thanks to the tropical moisture.

I think we can expect mostly clean conditions in the early morning but with light onshore texture filling in by midmorning. W winds around 10-12 knots will move in through midafternoon but may lay down again in the evening.





Your best bet is to try and find a peak or two at the combo spots through the morning...the tide will be lower, and the winds will be the lightest. I would stick to the small wave gear...longboards and fishy shapes. Don’t spend a ton of time looking for waves tomorrow, but if you live close to the beach, or don’t mind the computer cam check I would burn a few minutes checking it out in the morning.

03:03AM LDT 0.0 L
09:13AM LDT 4.3 H
02:40PM LDT 1.7 L
08:35PM LDT 5.6 H

Tuesday’s Surf – mostly leftovers

Tuesday will be rideable but I think that the lack of swell and high tides will keep it from being a surf day.

We are going to have a mix of NW energy (290-300 and a combo of local windswell as well as some weak medium period energy), some background SW swell (200-220) and some weak tropical S swell (180-190) from former TS Kevin.



Wave heights for tomorrow look a bit on the small side. Lots of the average breaks will be in the knee-waist high range...and fairly soft/close to shore on the shape. The standout combo breaks, mostly through San Diego and Southern Ventura, will be around waist-chest high on the sets...maybe a rare plus set sneaking in on the lower tides. Long waits and mush-mush shape will be the norm.

Winds look ok...maybe slightly eddish in the morning. The forecast models are calling for some patchy (but thick) fog to form up overnight as things sort of cool off. The fog looks like it might spin up some southerly winds...sort of variable to light S...through San Diego and OC. It should be lighter further north but I would plan for a touch of onshore texture for spots up there as well if the fog gets a good foothold. Afternoon winds will be WNW around 10-12 knots...but watch for them to back off later in the evening.



It won’t be good enough to spend a lot of time hunting down surf tomorrow...the weaker swell and the tides will keep so many spots on the soft side that it might be hard to motivate for close to shore crumblers. I would bring a board that works with small soft waves, even at the top spots...the extra foam or fishy shape will help you have a little more fun. If you live near a standout region you might be able to slip out really early and take advantage of the super early morning low tide...nautical twilight is around 5:30am (actual sunrise is 6:30am)...there might be a little wiggle room on the shape if you can motivate...but remember that you are motivating for small leftovers.

02:38AM LDT 0.0 L
08:55AM LDT 4.1 H
02:10PM LDT 2.1 L
08:03PM LDT 5.5 H

Tropcial Update – Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena

Man I leave computer range for a couple of days and the whole tropical region has to get all squirrelly on me…(hmmm maybe I should leave more often…sort of like a human sacrifice). Anyhoo while I was gone we got not one, but two new tropical systems; Tropical Storm Kevin and Hurricane Jimena.



Right now TS Kevin is a relatively weak tropical storm with winds holding around 35 knots and few gusts around 40 knots, which puts him right over tropical depression strength. Since he is inside our swell window, and sort-of organized (showing some convection), I think that we will see some swell from Kevin…t also helps that his storm track is taking him almost directly at us. I am not expecting a lot of surf…just a weak pulse of S-SSW swell (180-190) that arrives on September 1st and sends some minor knee-chest high waves into exposed areas…the swell should linger for a couple of days but unless he gets a lot stronger we aren’t going to a ton of surf from him.



Hurricane Jimena looks a bit more bad-ass. Right now she is about 500-600 miles SE of the Tip of Baja and has already reached Category 2 strength, with core winds around 120-knots and gusts nearing 145-knots. Her current track is taking her WNW around 7-10 knots...and the hurricane models are forecasting her to recurve back into Southern Baja as she intensifies. (The NHC is likely to issue a Hurricane Watch in Southern Baja for Jimena later tonight or tomorrow).



Unfortunately for Southern California Jimena is not in our swell window…and is not forecast to reach it before making landfall.



She will however be a wave-maker for Southern Baja, parts of Northern Mainland Mexico, and even a few of those protected spots in the Gulf of California. Swell from Jimena will be filling in today and should continue to build over the next couple of days as she continues to intensify. Sizewise it is going to be well-overhead as it peaks, and potentially very dangerous (as well as potentially very stormy) since the storm will be moving into the area.

I think it would be quite risky to head into the area to try and get surf from Jimena…I would maybe stick it out for an extra day if I was already down at an exposed spot (unless authorities told me to leave of course), but heading down, and likely arriving as the hurricane does, won’t be the best call. Even if the hurricane doesn’t make landfall right on top of you, there are always heavy rains and flash floods that can be very dangerous.

The track for Jimena isn’t set in stone…cross your fingers that she drifts a bit more west and swings wide in her recurve.