We are going to have a mix of overlapping S-SW swells (180-215) coming in from a couple of different storms down in the SPAC. There will also be a mix of weak NW swell (290-300 but mostly over 295), and some building local WNW-NW windswell coming in from our outer waters. Looks like the swell mix will hold steady through the day…with another shot of SW swell arriving in the afternoon.
Sizewise…even though we have a lot of different swells, they aren’t super big. Since they are coming in from all over most breaks are going to have some sort of surf. Average spots with some S and WNW exposure can expect surf in the knee-waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets at the breaks a little more open SW energy. The standout SW facing breaks and the really good combo spots (mostly in OC and SD) will be in the waist-chest high range fairly consistently along with some shoulder high+ sets showing during the lower tides. The bigger waves will still be a tad inconsistent…but fun when they show.
Before we get to the weather here is a quick note on Tuesday’s conditions…yeah Tuesday ended up being pretty clean, it sucks to get the forecast wrong, but Mother Nature has got a pretty solid track-record of playing by her own rules and if she wants the wind light, there isn’t much our weak-sauce little computers (or forecasters) can do about it.
Anyways, looking back at what set up the lighter winds…we basically got lucky on Tuesday. Monday’s winds pushed out the eddy/overcast set up we had going and then building high-pressure got an early start on moving over our area. The new ridge settled in faster thanks to a combination of “now colder” ocean temps and the clear evening skies that cooled off the air-mass over the coast and helped to set up a bit of a land-breeze to counter the onshore flow that was supposed to continue through the morning…which was cool for us as surfers (if you were paying attention), but lame for my forecast calling for onshore wind in the morning.
Ok enough of that…let’s move on to Wednesday. It looks like the eddy has been disrupted enough that our wind will remain light for Wednesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for light/variable to light/onshore flow for the morning…with wind speeds holding below 3-5 knots for most areas. These winds do shift onshore after mid-morning and will eventually come out of the W-WNW around 12-15 knots for most areas.
With winds staying lighter…and some playful sized waves on tap for the expose areas…tomorrow is looking pretty surfable, particularly this summer’s standards. I think that the morning will be the best call…but we will have to let the -1.0’ low tide fill in a little or shape may be a little drained…I bet the good spots will end up being pretty fun as the tide rolls in. One thing to keep in mind…I am getting emails from a lot of you guys saying the water temps dipped down to the low 60’s/upper 50’s in some areas, so I would plan on bringing the wetsuit if you don’t want your ‘nads to fall off.
07/14/2010 Wednesday
05:59AM LDT -1.0 L
12:21PM LDT 4.6 H
05:53PM LDT 1.5 L
11:42PM LDT 5.6 H
9 comments:
adam, you should never feel like you have to apologize for missing a forecast. your work is generally more accurate and certainly more interesting and informative than anything else out there. and most importantly its free!
Exactly, love your forecast but sometimes we just have to look out the window. Really cold lately. Trunking it two weeks ago, now back in wetsuit.
What they said!! We know that forecasting is often an inexact science. The fact that you do it for us through this blog on an almost daily basis makes you a hero in my book. If I may be blunt, you ain't got to apologize for shit. You da man!
Adam,
You are only mild hot sauce when you are off, most of the time you are THE hotsauce when it comes to the forecast. You blow away surfspiyne, wavebiatch and swetgland!
Coconutz!
LOL!
Yes Adam, your doin' a great job bruva. If it wasn't for the occasional twist, we'd never score uncrowded surf.
where dat southern swell at? It has been small for like a week. I need swell!!
Look on the bright side - only 7 more weeks till the start of California's 6 mos prime time running Sept-Feb.
i love sept-feb so much
:drool:
Upwelling is cool, thanks el nino spring time winds...
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