Waves for the Weekend – Conditions improve and there will still be some swell (but the water temps will still make your ‘nads fall off)

Saturday and Sunday both look like surf days…though the winds look a little better on Sunday (at least they stay cleaner longer than it does on Saturday).

Saturday will see a mix of dropping, but still decently sized NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). There will be rideable waves most exposed places…but expect the biggest surf at spots that are well-exposed to both swells (and like the combo mix).



Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push.

Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. I don’t expect the morning to be super clean everywhere…if your beach is wide open there is a shot that there will be a bit of texture/crumble to things.



The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off.



Look for the average spots, thanks to the dropping windswell, to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the better combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push.

A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina or San Clemente island, which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.



While the weekend won’t be outstanding it will be a definite improvement compared to the last couple of days…and there are a few little bonuses that will help us out. The mix of swells leaves less “shadowed” areas, so the crowd can spread out a bit. Winds will be pretty light throughout the day on Sunday…which means that we won’t have to all crush up the dawn patrol. And lastly the tides are pretty manageable for both days…a negative low-tide in the early morning but it fills in pretty quickly and doesn’t quite hit the “swampthing” level. Anyway…I will be out checking my nearby beach breaks both days…I hope you guys get a chance to get in the water as well. Oh and remember that all that wind dropped the ocean temps about 4-5 degrees…so you might want to throw the winter/water gear in the car…just in case you don’t like ice-cream headaches

Here are the tides…have a great weekend!

05/01/2010 Saturday
06:16AM LDT -0.7 L
12:47PM LDT 3.3 H
05:12PM LDT 2.2 L
11:23PM LDT 5.3 H

05/02/2010 Sunday
07:08AM LDT -0.3 L
01:56PM LDT 3.1 H
05:55PM LDT 2.5 L

Friday’s Surf – Still a little breezy…but with a few little bubbles forming

For most areas, and really most of the day, Friday isn’t looking very surfable…but there may be a few areas where winds are a little more northerly (and the spots are positioned a little better) where a few little bubbles of surfy-ness could spring up.

In the water we are going to have a mix of building/peaking NW windswell and some decent sized, but mostly hacked apart, SSW-SW swell (190-210) that will be starting to peak as well.



Sizewise…will be all over the place. Spots with just a bit of exposure will be in the chest high range with some shoulder high sets. The better exposed NW spots, particularly breaks that can pull in a little of the SW combo energy, will be in the shoulder-head high range. The top NW facing breaks, mostly through Southern Ventura and the South Bay, will be head high+ with a few bigger waves mixing in. South SD will be the biggest…with some sets going several feet+ overhead, but with some pretty sloppy shape thanks to most of the energy being NW windswell.

Winds for the most part aren’t looking all that good…the NW flow is forecast to get a jump on things pretty early…and since it really isn’t going to let up tonight…the sloppy shape is going to continue for most areas. There are a few spots (you can see on the map below) where the winds have more of a northerly tint to them…or the overall flow is just lighter…it seems like these little bubbles are setting up near areas that have some pretty decent sized coastal hills…so if you have a little more elevation near your beach (and I didn’t circle it) you might want to give it a look in the morning…don’t drive all that far, but if it is just around the corner it never hurts to check. W-NW winds around 10-20 knots will return for the afternoon.



So while the winds won’t be gale-force onshore…there isn’t going to be a ton of clean up on Friday…at least there will be a couple of semi-manageable areas during the morning (but lets be honest ANYTHING would have been better than the slop that I saw running down the north OC beaches around lunchtime on Thursday). I think your best bet is going to be the S facing spots that have a lot of wind protection…or maybe a couple of the points that have enough “wrap” to the inside section that the NW winds don’t completely trash it. Personally I think my pillow will be the best call…choppy, sloppy, nad-freezing crumblers are not helping motivate me to set my alarm all that early.

Here are the tides…cross your fingers that the wind models are overcalling things (by a lot).

04/30/2010 Friday
05:29AM LDT -1.0 L
11:49AM LDT 3.6 H
04:36PM LDT 1.9 L
10:44PM LDT 5.7 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/29/2010

Forecast Overview

The nasty winds will finally start to back off tonight and it looks like they are going to stay light as we move into the weekend. Shape and conditions will improve as we head into the weekend, which is nice because it is just in time for more SW swell to move in from the Southern Hemi.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (breaking the wind)
Conditions start to improve on Friday…not totally clean up…but definitely better than what we had on Thursday. In the water we will have a mix of holding WNW-NW windswell and some peaking SSW-SW swell (190-220). Most spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range, while the better NW and SW facing breaks see some less consistent bigger sets. The standout NW facing breaks, mostly in San Diego, will see stacked up, lumpy overhead+ windswell. The best SW facing breaks will be head high+ on the inconsistent sets. I don’t expect the greatest shape since there is so much short-period energy sloshing around, but if you have a spot that can groom out some of that energy, or it just generally breaks better on windswells, then those areas will probably be the best call. Winds/Weather: Look for light winds in the morning…there may be a little onshore texture here and there…but overall winds will be below 5 knots. Look for onshore WNW-NW winds to build in later in the day…eventually pushing up into the 10-15 knot range.



Saturday – (Fading windswell but a touch more Southern Hemi)
The surf continues to improve on Saturday as the local winds even out a bit more and the even though the windswell backs off, it grooms out some of the junk and manages to hold onto some of the more “surfable” parts of the swell. The SSW-SW swell (190-220) continues to hold…and even gets a little bit more reinforcing energy that will help to keep the summer spots in fun-size surf. Average breaks can expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range. The standout NW facing spots will be shoulder-head high with some plus sets showing on the morning tide push. The best SW facing spots, particularly the combo breaks, will have more consistent shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in on the good tide push. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day. There may be some pockets of fog early…but it should burn off by midday.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
The SSW-SW swell continues to hold on Sunday while the local windswell drops off. Look for the average spots to slip down into the waist-chest range with a few plus sets sneaking through at the good combo spots. The best SW facing breaks, and the excellent combo spots (mostly in South OC and parts of San Diego), will be more in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent head high+ sets on the tide push. Winds/Weather: A little eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…nothing super strong…but possibly centered around Catalina which would push light S-SSE winds into San Diego and Southern OC. Spots further north look cleaner…mostly E-ENE through the morning. All breaks see the springy WNW-NW winds push in through the afternoon with the well exposed breaks topping around near 12-15 knots.



Monday – (more combo love)
The windswell continues to back off on Monday…but another pulse of SSW-SW swell moves in and mixes with the Southern Hemi blend (180-210) that will still be hanging around from the weekend. Expect the WNW-NW facing spots to lose more size…holding in the waist high range with a few rare bigger sets. The SW facing breaks will be more in the chest-shoulder high range with a few of the standout SW facing breaks, mostly in South OC, seeing some inconsistent head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning with some pockets of texture around the wind-prone areas. The afternoon winds pick up out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Not much showing in the NPAC in the latest forecast run…we will see the strong wind gradient (you know…the one that is trashing the surf here on Thursday) start to shift around and weaken as high-pressure starts to develop over the region.



This increasing high-pressure is actually stretching across to Hawaii, with another fairly strong ridge developing over the western half of the North Pacific. Check it out…



This my friends, is a pretty typical spring/early summer pressure pattern for the North Pacific…and once those two ridges of pressure get entrenched it is pretty difficult to push them out of the way. You guys might hear me refer to this sort of set-up as a “double-barrel” high-pressure…and yes it is a bad thing for helping make surf.

At this point, with these highs moving into place I am not expecting any sort of significant storm to form in our swell window over the next week or so. There may be an increase in local windswell if the eastern high moves a little further off the coast…but for the most part the NPAC is looking pretty boring.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



SSW-SW (190-220) has been arriving over the last couple of days but it has mostly been swallowed up by this stupid onshore wind. Fortunately this swell has some legs and the main portion of the energy is going to arrive in a couple of overlapping pulses that peak on Friday, hold into early Saturday, and then slowly back down Sunday/Monday. Like I said in the short-range portion of the forecast… this one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and a few overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

That nice looking storm that I was watching waaaaay out in the charts in my last long-range forecast actually managed to pull together over the last few days (and I didn’t even have to bribe it with tootsie pops like I do with my 5-year old). Check it out on the Jason-1 satellite…(a big thanks to Mark Sponsler, who lets me poach his www.Stormsurf.com charts…make sure to visit his site when you get a chance).



Like I mentioned before this storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. The winds aren’t super strong…WINDsat had some 35-45 knots in core…but it looks like the proximity and duration of the storm (as well as the movement) will help overcome its lack of intensity.

At this point I am looking for new S-SSW swell (180-200) to move in late on May 4th…but then peak on May 5-6th…likely holding some smaller but still surfable energy into the following weekend. Most S facing spots will see consistent chest-shoulder high surf from this one…but the standout S facing spots, pretty much just in Orange County, will have some sets going a couple of feet overhead as it peaks…the focal breaks (spots that really pull in this sort of swell) will probably have some bigger sizes at times.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, May 3rd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Thursday’s Surf – Still a bit windy…

Thursday is not looking very surfable...there may be a couple of sheltered little pockets here and there…but for the most part expect onshore winds (and onshore chop) for the morning and then stronger onshore flow for the afternoon/evening. Stupid wind.

Our swell is going to be a mix of steeply angled NW windswell (290+) that will peak through the morning, and a healthy SSW-SW swell (190-220) that is basically going to get steamrolled by the local wind energy. Check it out…you can see the new SSW-SW swell showing on the Oceanside Buoy already.



And this is how the swell mix will look on Thursday morning.



Most spots are going to average around chest-shoulder high with some head high sets mixing in at the more NW facing spots and the good combo breaks. The purely summer spots will be in the chest-head high range as well…but expect the swell to be a lot more finicky and inconsistent on the sets. The standout NW facing spots in Southern Ventura, the South Bay, will see a lot of overhead surf with some bigger sets mixing in. The even more exposed spots of Southern SD will be consistently head high+ with sets going several feet overhead…and possibly even a few bigger waves showing at the extreme focal breaks.

Soooo…the models are not liking the wind tomorrow morning…but these models also have some…hmmm lets call it “flexibility” (I like to use the term dumb-assedness) as we move through a transitional season like Spring. Basically, they get the winds wrong a lot more than they do in the other more stable times of year. While I am not ready to hold my breath...a dry-cold front, like the one we have moving through is pretty unstable, and the lack of cloud cover means that we could see the air temps drop off pretty quickly over the next several hours. Sometimes the drop in temps can sort of scramble the wind pattern…shifting a WNW flow to something a little more northerly, which means a few more spots, particularly spots exposed to the SSW-SW swell could clean up a bit more than the models suggest. Like I said…I am not holding my breath…but with swell in the water it is always worth a check.





The early morning dawn patrol is going to be your best bet…but watch the negative low-tide drainer…fortunately it hits a bit before sunup…so we might actually have the tides working for us for a change (or the negative low tide will just make everything close out…or it might open some sort of time/space wormhole and drop the swampthing right back into the lineup…I am voting for the latter). I wouldn’t hop right out of bed and jam to the beach though…definitely give your wind indicators a thorough checking and maybe even fire up the computer to see what the wind stations are saying before committing too much time/money/gas

Here are the tides…

04/29/2010 Thursday
04:44AM LDT -1.2 L
10:57AM LDT 3.7 H
04:01PM LDT 1.5 L
10:08PM LDT 6.0 H

Lagging on the forecasts…and turning into an old man

Hey guys…I sort of tweaked my back over the weekend (I am sure it was a dolphin ninja) and I have been moving pretty slow since. Sorry I haven’t been my usually punctual (and I use the term loosely) self with the forecasts.

I am starting to feel better so I think that I will be able to get back up to speed tomorrow and hopefully get everything humming along shortly.

Just taking a quick look at the charts it looks like some more fun onshore winds and maybe some rain moving in tomorrow….I would expect more, small S-SW swell, and building W wind/storm swell. Winds and weather are going to depend on where that front is actually positioned by the morning but if it has moved on through expect some sloppy shape…if it stalls out there may be a few little surf pockets at the S wind protected breaks. Happy hunting...

Monday’s Surf – if the forecast is posted as 1:15am is it still a forecast?

Monday will be rideable but there since I have had to take the dog out to poop like 14 times tonight I have had a chance to watch the wind a bit…and in South HB you can feel the eddy spinning around a little.

At this point I expect the eddy to lighten up but stay consistent throughout the first part of the day…so while it will be rideable, spots that are susceptible to southerly winds will have a little texture…maybe even enough to keep those open spots a bit crumbly.

Swellwise we are going to have a mix of S-SW swells (mostly SW now…205-220) and some background, fading WNW-NW windswell. You can see how the swell is hitting the Oceanside buoy this evening (ok middle of the night).



Sizewise most spots will be in the waist-chest high range with some occasional bigger sets on the lower tides. The tide will keep things pretty swampy so try and bring gear that will let you have a little more fun with softer/mushier surf. The standout areas, mostly South South OC and parts of Northern SD, will be more consistently in the chest high range but wuth some shoulder high sets mixing in on those lower tides again.

Like I said above…look for overcast skies and a bit of southerly SSE flow early on and then more, building S-SW winds around 10-12 knots through midmorning. These wind eventually shift more westerly around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Un fortunately we are back in the race between the tide and the wind…but you will have a much better shot at at getting waves at surf at spots with a bit more wind protection and the ablility to push some rideable shape through the lower tides.

Here are the tides…here is a good start to the week!

Here are the tides…

04/26/2010 Monday
02:31AM LDT -0.3 L
08:26AM LDT 4.4 H
02:16PM LDT 0.5 L
08:24PM LDT 5.9 H

Waves for the Weekend – Mix of S-SW and NW swell and some nice weather

Looks like we are going to be able to find some surf on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend. The tide may cause a few issues in the mornings of each day but winds should stay light enough to let us get some still clean waves as it drops.

On Saturday the windswell drops off even more, but the S-SW swell (180-210) fills in more and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) work to replace the fading windswell.



Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets.

Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.



Sunday more SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well.



Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides.

Weather looks good with A little bit of eddy starting to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon. Clearing skies and beach temps in the low 70’s should make for a nice day.



Overall the surf won’t be all that big or consistent, but the weather will be warm, the mornings clean, and once we sneak past the morning swampthing we should be able to get a few fun ones showing at the well exposed spots. You can probably get away riding your good ‘all-round’ board…but you might want something that works well in mushier “high-tide” surf if you are stuck just surfing the dawn patrol…that or find a spot that really likes the high tide.

Here are the tides…have a good one!

04/24/2010 Saturday
12:52AM LDT 1.2 L
06:33AM LDT 4.4 H
01:00PM LDT 0.1 L
07:19PM LDT 5.1 H

04/25/2010 Sunday
01:44AM LDT 0.4 L
07:32AM LDT 4.4 H
01:39PM LDT 0.3 L
07:51PM LDT 5.6 H

Friday’s Surf – Clean morning with some combo swell

Friday will be a surf day.

Look for a mix of fading W-NW windswell (280-300) and some new SSW-SW swell (190-210) jumping into the ongoing mix of swell we have coming out of the Southern Hemi. Conditions will make a considerable clean up as winds lighten and even go light offshore in a few areas for the morning. Expect the water to freeze your ‘nads off at a few spots as well.



With the windswell dropping most of our bigger surf is going to back off fast…but it was an ugly lumpy mess for most areas so having it fade out won’t be the worst thing in the world. Most exposed spots will be in the chest high range while the better S-SW exposed combo spots see some shoulder high sets. The standout NW breaks, again mostly in Southern SD but at the really good NW/SW combo spots as well, will have some head high and even overhead surf through the lower tides earlier in the day.

Look for light and variable winds in the morning…with a few pockets of light offshore flow forming around North LA and North OC…and maybe in some other isolated areas as well. These winds are still a little fragile so don’t expect it too be totally clean all day…the onshore flow will start to drive back in around lunchtime and we can expect some breezy WNW-NW winds around 12-15 knots for most areas by the afternoon.



It looks like the early morning is going to be the best bet windwise…but the tide will be a little high…so we are stuck back in the stupid compromise of clean but swampy surf or textured with a lower tide…you might want to aim for the middle somewhere if your good combo spots like the lower tides.

Here are the tides…

04/23/2010 Friday
05:23AM LDT 4.3 H
12:17PM LDT -0.1 L
06:46PM LDT 4.5 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/22/2010

Forecast Overview

Happy Earth Day! Make sure to hug your planet…it is the only one we got! Looks like we are getting a break in the weather as we head into the weekend. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all look like surf days with light winds and enough swell to keep us having some fun. Monday looks good too…but there may be a little more onshore wind starting to swirl around…forecasts are calling for more storm action around the middle of next week. More S-SW swell lining up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Saturday – (some combo swell)
Saturday is looking like a surf day…it may not be as “consistent” as Friday as the windswell drops off a touch more…but there will be more S-SW swell (180-210) and a new background pulse of NW swell (290-300) both filling in to replace the fading windswell. Most spots will continue to run around waist-chest high on sets. The well exposed S-SW facing spots will see more waist-shoulder high surf while the standout NW/SW combo spots see some head high+ sets. Winds/Weather: Weather looks nice on Saturday. Light and variable winds on tap for the morning with some building onshore flow for the afternoon. Look for clean conditions early and then NW winds around 10-14 knots pushing in through the second half of the day.



Sunday – (more combo energy)
More SW swell (190-215) moves in and mixes with the already showing S-SW swell and background NW swell (290-300). The local windswell may come up a touch at the well exposed spots as well. Look for more consistent chest high surf at the average spots while the standout S-SW combo breaks see shoulder-head high surf with some rare plus sets showing on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: A little bit of eddy starts to spin up on Sunday…but not enough to junk up the morning. Expect more light and variable winds for most areas early on and then NW winds around 10-14 knots by the afternoon.



Monday – (more combo love)
Not much change on Monday…the mix of S-SW swells (180-220) and smaller WNW-NW energy (285-300) will continue to hold…but may lose a little bit of consistency. Expect more chest-high surf at the average spots while the standout breaks see more head high, and slightly bigger sets on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: The slight eddy circulation continues on Monday but winds still look pretty manageable. Look for light winds…with some southerly texture in a few areas…but most clean. Look for NW winds 10-15 knots on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Over the next few days we will see a mix of dropping local windswell and some longer-period NW energy from storms that have skirted the edge of our swell window. The biggest size is actually peaking right now…but it will continue to fade slowly through Friday and continue to drop as we move through the weekend.

Further out there is another high-latitude low-pressure forming North of Hawaii…this is forecast to push closer to the coast over the next few days…setting up some new WNW-NW swell (285-300) for around the 28th.



The sucky part is that this storm is forecast to ride the swell right into California…so we could be looking at a pretty similar situation to the weather we just had…namely, an increase in WNW-NW swell but strong onshore winds blowing right over top of it as it arrives.



If this is the case it will probably be jacking up a bunch of our S-SW swell out in the water around the same time. Cross your fingers that this model is just being a Debbie Downer and that the “weather” portion of this storm stays out of our region.

South Pacific
Plenty of energy on the way from the South Pacific…there has been a pretty consistent stream of storms moving through both our S and SW swell windows and thanks to that activity we can expect a series of overlapping pulses that will keep the S facing breaks alive with chest-shoulder high+ surf through the weekend.



The start of a bigger SSW-SW pulse (190-220) begins arriving Sunday and Monday (April 25-26th) but the meat of the swell arrives on Wednesday-Friday (April 28-30th). This one looks good for consistent chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots and overhead sets at the standout SW breaks as it peaks.

Further out it looks like there is going to be another pretty intense low moving in the SPAC swell window in about 5-6 days. Check out the charts…



This storm is showing a lot of good qualities. It is positioned in a non-shadowed area of the SPAC, it has some strong South-to-North movement, it gets a bunch of extra-tropical energy bridging through the mid-latitudes as it really pulls together, and it is 1000+ miles closer than the last bigger storm…all of which are good things. Too bad we have to wait almost a full week for it to form. If this storm does live up to forecasts it would likely send an overhead S-SSW swell (180-210) that would hit around May 5-6th.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 26nd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Thursday’s Wind – when will the madness end…oh yeah on Friday.

Thursday will not be a surf day…but there may be a little teenie-tiny window, for a couple of areas, in the morning if we get lucky...and by lucky I am talking somewhere in between a hot streak in vegas and being a lottery winner lucky or something like that.

Lots of windswell (and wind) still showing on Thursday…the peak of the windswell will actually be pushing through in the morning and it looks like most W facing beaches will see some decent size, but horrible shape. The top NW facing spots, particularly San Diego, will go bigger…but again the stupid wind does us no favors. Oh and there will be a touch of S-SW swell (190-220) that will get lost in the windswell/wind noise out there.



Most spots will continue to see sloppy, poor shape with surf running in the shoulder-head high+ range…and some bigger sets mixing in. The standout NW facing spots, again mostly in SD, will be several feet overhead and may have some bigger waves mixing in at times…this will be mostly stacked up windswell but it will be pretty good size.

Winds, overall look pretty bad for Thursday. W flow around 10-15 knots will be pushing through for the morning with some 20-25 knot gusts still possible in some areas. Now with that said…there are a couple of funky little things showing on the COAMPS and on the NWS graphical forecast…





It looks like the early morning may see some lighter winds around a couple of areas…namely North LA county/Santa Monica and North OC…it looks like the Malibu and PV headlands may push winds a little more northerly throw those areas which, thanks to their southerly orientation, might mean a brief period of sideshore or even slightly offshore winds through the morning. I definitely wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that to happen…but if you live in those areas it might be worth taking a longer look at the trees/flags indicators when you first wake up.

Keep in mind that even if things do clean up a bit in those areas the surf shape is still going to be lumpy and funky…with some freaking cold water temps thanks to upwelling and chilly air temps thanks to wind-chill.

Here are the tides…winds improve a lot by Friday morning…expect some better, cleaner, surf this weekend.

04/22/2010 Thursday
04:00AM LDT 4.3 H
11:27AM LDT -0.1 L
06:13PM LDT 3.9 H
11:50PM LDT 1.9 L

Slop for Wednesday – stormy

Wednesday looks stormy…strong onshore W winds, rain, possible thunderstorms, basically everything we don’t want as surfers. Unless you live right next to a super protected break it won’t be worth spending time/money/gas looking for waves on Wednesday.

Solid W-NW stormswell moves in fast on Wednesday…steamrolling the S-SW swells we have overlapping in the background.



Most spots will be seeing some poor shaped head high surf with a few of the really exposed NW facing breaks see sets going several feet overhead and bigger. Did I mention the shape was going to be poor most spots.

I think the National Weather Service sums up our weather for tomorrow nicely…



Santa Barbara/Ventura

.WED...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WESTERN PORTION. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 9 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT WESTERN PORTION...BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 12 SECONDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

Los Angeles

.WED...W WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING 10 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. COMBINED SEAS 7 TO 10 FT DOMINANT PERIOD 12 SECONDS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

Orange County/San Diego

.WED...WIND W 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SWELL W 6 TO 9 FT AT 8 SECONDS. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

.WED NIGHT...WIND W 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SWELL W 8 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.



As usual there may be a pocket or two of semi-protected surf out there…but honestly I don’t think I am going to spend much time looking tomorrow…just not in the mood for cold winds and rain for some reason. If you are on the hunt…your spot is going to need some serious protection from the W winds…and probably some exposure to the S-SW swells which is going to make it much smaller than areas directly exposed to the new stormsurf.

Here are the tides…

04/21/2010 Wednesday
02:24AM LDT 4.5 H
10:27AM LDT -0.1 L
05:36PM LDT 3.5 H
10:25PM LDT 2.5 L

Tuesday’s Surf – rideable S-SW swell, NW windswell combo

Tuesday will be rideable in the morning…maybe even a bit playful at the right spot…but it doesn’t look outstanding and there is a nasty looking storm front looming out the back.

In the water we are going to have a mix of overlapping SSW-SW swells (190-220)…a new one filled in on Monday and there will still be some remnants from the weekend.



The average exposed spots will continue to be in the waist-chest high range…with the better S-SW exposed breaks seeing some shoulder high sets. The standout S-SW facing breaks and the excellent combo spots can expect more consistent chest-shoulder high surf with some head high sets.

Winds look light and variable for Tuesday morning…but conditions are sort of fragile so expect some early onshore texture starting to creep in fairly quickly through midmorning and then more S-SW flow around 10-14 knots building in through the afternoon. Winds look stronger and more southerly for Santa Barbara and Ventura as the new storm front approaches.



Not super excited about the surf on Tuesday…but there will be waves at spots with SSW-SW exposure, particularly through the morning...and for once the tides will be sort of cooperating With the front bearing down on us (read the long-range forecast ) I would keep an eye on winds…if it speeds up or stalls it will tweak the arrival times of the winds, which could mean that we see cleaner conditions or a total mess…basically if you wake up in the morning and 15-20 knot W winds are blowing…go back to bed. If they aren’t…well I still might check the interweb for the latest details.

Here are the tides…(happy 420 day for those that celebrate that sort of thing...)

04/20/2010 Tuesday
01:01AM LDT 4.8 H
09:15AM LDT -0.1 L
04:44PM LDT 3.1 H
08:18PM LDT 2.8 L
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Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/19/2010

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/19/2010

Forecast Overview

We will have a few rideable waves early on Tuesday…but then onshore winds start to pick up through the afternoon. Stormy conditions and strong onshore W winds are going to trash things on Wednesday, probably still trash things on Thursday, and then finally clean up on Friday and on into the weekend.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Tuesday – (A few fun ones…nothing great…but with a storm out the back)
The day starts off ok…just a mix of SSW-SW swells (190-220) and a touch of local windswell for the morning. Look for average spots to be in the waist-high range while the standout SW facing breaks see some chest-shoulder high+ sets. S-SW winds are forecast to develop by late afternoon and it looks like local windswell will be on the rise by sunset. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds in the morning…maybe some light pockets of texture at the more open beaches. S-SW winds will start to increase, particularly up around Ventura/Santa Barbara areas, by the afternoon. Spots further south (SD and OC) will have some lighter winds around 10-12 knots. The spots closer to point conception will get gusts hitting 15 knots with some stronger winds moving in after sundown. Rain likely by then as well.



Wednesday – (Craptacular!)
Wednesday looks like CRAP in today’s forecast run…strong onshore W winds, rain, building sloppy local windswell…and the W winds don’t leave many places to hide. The local W-NW windswell is modeled to jump up into the head high to well overhead range for the well-exposed spots (Mostly Ventura, the South Bay, and especially Southern San Diego), but with bad conditions it isn’t going to mean much. Winds/Weather: The NWS is calling for a “Gale Watch” for Wednesday, which means winds could top 35-40 knots…which if you don’t mind the pun…blows. Most spots can expect W winds 15-25 knots for most of the day with gusts hitting 35+ knots from LA on up through Santa Barbara. Oh and throw in some possible thunderstorms and a potential for a “winter storm warning” for the grapevine.



Thursday – (More onshore wind and pooptacular conditions)
The weather is supposed to chill out a bit on Thursday but not clean up all that much…most of the forecast models are calling for things to still be pretty unstable. Expect a mix of short-period WNW-NW stormswell…still running head high at most of the exposed spots and a few feet overhead at the standouts. SW swell will be in the background but between the wind/weather funkiness it is not looking like much of a surf day. Winds/Weather: WNW-NW winds around 10-20 knots on tap for most of the day…but finally breaking later in the evening. Look for some leftover drizzle…and then drier conditions later in the afternoon.



Friday – (Finally cleaning up)
Conditions finally improve on Friday…and if the wind lays down fast enough on Thursday evening it could even be sort of fun. In the water we will have a mix of dropping WNW-NW windswell and a new S-SSW swell (190-215). Look for average exposed spots to be in the chest-shoulder high range while the standout NW facing areas, mostly San Diego, will have some shoulder-head high surf. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds for the morning…sort of unstable, so expect some texture here and there, but below 5-6 knots for most areas. WNW-NW winds 10-15 knots will be on tap for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
A pretty well developed cold front, mixing with a funky mid-latitude low-pressure are currently mixing together just off of the California Coastline this afternoon.



This newly energetic and completely sucky front will be pushing down Northern/Central California early on Tuesday and will hit our area later Tuesday night. Look for the peak of the storm to move through on Wednesday, taper off on Thursday, and then finally clean up on Friday.



Further out…high-pressure is forecast to re-strengthen around the end of the week…but there will be some storm action spinning around the edges. One low-pressure that forms up around the International Date Line in about 5-6 days, has the potential to push a steep NW swell (290-300) our way that would arrive around the 28-29th of April.



South Pacific
We will get another couple of mild S-SW pulses (190-220) that arrive this week…but they are going to get lost in the close storm nastiness of coming out of the North Pacific…so if you have some super secret S facing spot that can still pull in swell despite 20-30 knot west winds then I would go surf there.

Further out the big red blob…the one that has been on the chart for freaking forever is actually forming right now…in fact I just saw a Jason-1 pass (he is a satellite that does all kinds of spacey stuff but uses some sweet millimeter wavelength radar to measure wave heights as well) that went right through that storm...and it is showing a solid 35-40’ seas which is pretty good…wind speeds are in the 30-40 knot range which isn’t great (I would love to see some 50-60 knots in there)…but the fetch is pretty massive so that may make up for its slower wind speeds.



It looks like my initial forecasts are going to be fairly accurate. We are going to get some initial SW swell (200-220) pushing up around the 25th…and then the bigger SW swell around the 27-28th. The swell will still pass through that SPAC island shadow...but it should still do a pretty good job setting up some shoulder-head high+ for our standouts by the time it peaks…maybe even a few bigger waves at those spots that really focus these sort of swells.



the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, April 22nd, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Long Range Surf Forecast, Long Range Surf Forecast Update, stormy this week, S-SW swells hiding in the background, cleanup later this week