The swell will slowly fade as we head into the weekend but conditions will stay nice at least through Saturday (too bad the tide pretty much sucks for the morning/midmornings). Next week we will have more swell but stormy conditions to go along with it…in fact the current forecasts are suggesting that we should probably start building some sort of ark.
Short Range (next 4 days)
Friday
The W-WNW swell (275-300) will be slowly fading on Friday as the main part of the energy starts to back off…like I said before the swell had some decent duration so there will still be plenty of surf on tap. Average spots can expect more shoulder-head high surf with some overhead sets mixing in. Top WNW-NW facing breaks, again in the usual “winter areas”, will have consistent head high and overhead surf with sets going 2-3’ overhead on the better parts of the tide…and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some bigger sets still showing at the standouts down in San Diego. Winds/Weather: Winds look really good on Friday…E around 10-15 knots for the morning which puts almost everywhere offshore to side-offshore (with a few exceptions of course). These winds will hold through midday and then back down to mostly light and variable through the afternoon.
Saturday
The mix of W-WNW energy (275-300) continues to fade out but again there will be plenty of leftover energy hanging around to keep us in very rideable surf…and a small SW swell will slink around in the background. Most spots will back down into the chest-shoulder to occasionally head high range while the standout WNW-NW breaks see more shoulder-head high surf with some less consistent overhead sets mixing in as well. Winds/Weather: Winds look clean through the morning with mostly light and variable conditions early and with only some slight onshore winds through the afternoon.
Sunday
The swell holds on Sunday as the W-WNW energy gets a little reinforcement from a new pulse of WNW energy that will help to prop up wave heights. Look for more chest-shoulder high surf at the average spots with some rare head high sets. Standouts will continue to see shoulder-head high surf with some inconsistent overhead sets pushing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Winds start off ok…with light and variable morning conditions on tap for all areas. The winds do start to shift more southerly and start to push onshore by later in the day…chance for some lovely S chop to pick up in the SB/Ven areas around sundown.
Monday
The first of a series of nasty storm fronts is forecast to move in on Monday, right on top of a new WNW swell (280-300)…wave heights will be on the way up into the overhead+ range for most spots but there will also be some 15-20 knot south winds and lots of rain. The swell is pretty much a lock at this point but the weather still has a ways to develop before it gets here...so don’t totally write-off Monday yet…we might dodge a weather bullet (particularly in the morning).
Long-Range
North Pacific
Good sized W-WNW swell (275-300) will be slowly fading as we move through Friday and into the weekend…still lots of overhead waves on tap for the top spots thanks to the ass-end of the storm holding in a good position longer than most storms do. The next round of WNW swell (280-300) pushes in on Sunday (Jan 17) with more chest-head high+ surf for most exposed areas and a few bigger waves at the standouts.
Further Out next week looks a LOT more like winter…the high-pressure that has been fending off some of the mid-latitude storms will finally start to break down and a whole bunch of wet-weather systems will pile right on through the gap.
At this point it looks like the first one will arrive on Monday, followed by a particularly nasty looking one on Wednesday-Friday. A few of the precipitation models are calling for a ridiculous amount of rain for next week…check out what the NWS is saying…
PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS IN LATEST QPS PRODUCT. CURRENT PROJECTIONS NOW INDICATE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES ARE QUITE LIKELY IN FAVORED COASTAL SLOP LOCATIONS.
Yeah…they really did just say that there is a possibility of 8 to 20 inches of rain in some areas. Man I need to find my freaking rain boots. Oh and for those of you that enjoy riding things in the snow…the models are also saying there could be several feet of new snow at resorts above 6000 feet…that is if you can get to them of course.
The surf will definitely be on the way up as we see another long pulse of WNW energy from these various storms but the weather and winds look really honked up…some of the forecast models are calling for gale force S-SW winds along the coastal areas at times throughout next week.
Still I am not totally ready to completely phone in next week…with systems this dynamic there is always a little bit of wiggle-room...it is just a bit to early to tell when that might set up. Since we will have some swell in the water I suggest, like I usually do with stormy weather, just keeping a “weather eye” on conditions…there may be some windows that crack open as all this stuff rolls over us.
South Pacific
Still not a ton going on down below…but I am seeing some slightly better looking curvature to the SPAC storm track…a little more fetch aimed our direction than we have had for a few weeks…but still nothing we would notice thanks to the larger NPAC energy. Further out we will have a slightly better shot of S swell (180-190) coming our way for the 21-22nd…not much bigger than knee-waist high…still that is better than nothing.
Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, January 18th, 2010.
Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/
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