Random Swell Update – Wet-n-wild work week

The weather/wind and swell models are all showing some pretty nasty conditions next week…and if anything they are almost looking stronger and more intense than the have in previous forecast runs.

Check out this lovely little paragraph from the National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion….

WITH MORE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE OTHER THREATS THAT WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...COASTAL AREAS MAY EXPECT TO SEE THE THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE HIGHEST SURF CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN IN YEARS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK.

They must have been looking at this model image from the CDIP (90-hours out…so roughly Wednesday morning before sunrise)...no wonder they are getting all hypey...I mean usually the NWS sucks the hype (and the fun) right out of things.



One big thing to keep in mind with the NWS statement, and even the CDIP image, is that they are also including the nasty short-period chop that will be slamming through the same time as the longer-period energy. That chop will be good for several feet of size in the outer-waters but won’t translate that well into actual breaking wave heights, which you can sort of see on the map as the swell loses a lot of size as the energy moves through the nearshore islands. Don't get me wrong it will still be pretty big...just quite a bit smaller than what gets thrown around in the outer-waters.

At the same time it is really a moot point since you can't really hide from the SSW-SW-W gale force winds (don’t forget the waterspouts!) that are going to hammer us the same time as the swell. I think the term “Victory at Sea” will probably just about cover the conditions Socal can expect from this bad boy.