Thursday’s Surf – oh look more wind...that is just great

Thursday is looking sloppy...but there may be a slim chance at something rideable in the morning.

NW winds are supposed to build later tonight as a new cold front (can it get colder?) moves through the area. You can see the lovely little bugger on the GOES satellites...it doesn’t look particularly wet, but it does look windy. (oh and you can see the next wet storm that moves in on Friday/Saturday).



Naturally these winds will increase local NW windswell and add to overall size as it mixes with some longer-period WNW energy and some background SW swell. Unfortunately it also means that conditions will generally be poop.

Expect most spots to build back into the chest high+ range on Thursday. Top NW facing spots, mostly through San Diego and Northern Baja, will have shoulder-head high surf but with super short swell periods (around 5-6 seconds). Basically I am expecting some more lumpy size but with poor shape.

Now a lot depends on how this low actually behaves tonight...forecasts are calling for W-NW winds increasing to 10-20 knots tonight with gusts nearing 25 knots after midnight. These winds are supposed to stick around all day on Thursday and generally trash conditions. We may want to keep a close eye on the winds tonight though...

What sometimes happens is that the super-dense cold air, like what we have right now, won’t erode out as fast as the weather model sometimes anticipates, and it will actually slow down a front or slide it away from the coast forcing it inland over Central California. If this occurs we can sometimes get a little window of surfyness, particularly through a colder morning.

If you are an insomniac (and you live a reasonable distance from the ocean) you might want to keep an eye on the winds late tonight...if they aren’t super strong, or they stay variable, there may be a shot to get some of the new building swell mix before the winds get to it (particularly at the more protected spots). Of course if the front steamrolls us like it is forecasted to...then we will all just want to stay in bed. I recommend a surf cam check before committing to any serious driving tomorrow (by serious I mean anything over 15 minutes).

Here are the tides...

04:47AM LST 0.7 L
10:34AM LST 4.7 H
04:58PM LST 0.1 L
11:15PM LST 4.9 H