Sunday, February 1, 2009

Monday’s Surf – Still small…but swell on the way

Monday won’t be much of a surf day.

There still isn’t much swell out there…just some weak marginal leftover energy from both the NW and SW.

Basically we can expect ankle-knee high surf at most of the average spots and some more consistent knee high sets at the top spots. There is a little more windswell in the water right now but I am expecting it to fade fast through the morning as winds slacken up overnight.

Weather looks fine…basically light/variable/offshore for the morning, some fog as well. Winds turn onshore but stay below 12-15 knots for the afternoon.

There really isn’t a good call tomorrow, unless you count staying in bed or getting some chores done. If you have to paddle around stick to a top spot and bring your longboard…that way you can pick off a couple of mushy soft ones if a peak sneaks through now and then.

Since I don’t have a lot of surf to talk about for Monday I did take a look at the long-range forecast…The surf is going to get bigger later this week but the weather is going to go poop too…it is basically going to be a race to see if some new W-WNW swell can fill in before the storm front pushes over the region.

This new little low, and some other fetch currently just to the north of Hawaii, are going to be setting up some new W-WNW swell (260-300) that will start to arrive late on the 4th and will peak into the 5-6th. I don’t think there is going to be much showing on the 4th itself…most of the energy will be arriving after sundown…but there will be a small/weak pulse of SSW energy filling in that day that could help add a touch more size than we are seeing right now.

At this point it looks like we are going to lose the weather race…the wind models as well as the NWS are calling for S winds and rain on Thursday the 5th…and more on Friday. But sometimes these fronts will stall out leaving us with some building swell without the weather…hopefully this will be the case this time. Check back…I will have some more updates as we get a little closer.


Anonymous said...

ban the forecast!

Pezman said...

Dog beach was micro-sized nugs yesterday.

the-ROOSTER- said...

dear gawd I hope we get SOMETHING before the rain hits later this week....