Thursday, July 23, 2009

Surf for Friday – Now with extra hype!

Friday will be a surf day...the most epic, awesome, radical, surf day of all time. Your head might literally explode if you surf tomorrow. (Ever see Scanners? Yeah it will be just like that.)

Surf is so epic...can’t. handle. it.

OK not really...I guess your head might explode in frustration of taking off on another walled up section, or at the size of the crowd, or somebody might run your head over causing it to explode...but I don’t think that the awesomeness of the surf is going to do it tomorrow.

The hype-machine that is grinding out stories on this swell has gone a bit overboard, (I know, I know...the irony of a surf forecaster calling a swell overhyped is not lost on me). It is never a good sign for the impending crowds when stories about the “monster swell” start popping up in my Google News page. Don’t get me wrong, this is a healthy swell, one of the bigger ones of the summer...but not a massive wall of water sent by King Neptune. Anyways...enough of my bitching about hype...I don’t want to be Debbie Downer when a lot of you have a decent chance at scoring a few good waves over the next couple of days...let’s get down to the nuts and bolts.

Friday will be a surf day.

The new SSW swell will start to peak and will have plenty of energy pushing through in the 17-18 second range throughout the day. NW windswell will make a small appearance on the buoys but will mostly get swallowed by the bigger Southern Hemi energy.

The biggest waves will be in Orange County, parts of North LA, and Northern San Diego. Look for the S facing beaches in those areas to have consistent shoulder-overhead sized surf with sets going a couple to a few feet overhead at times. The standout breaks, the handful of ones that really focus this SSW-long-period energy, will have some bigger sets.

Spots with less southerly exposure, the average combo breaks, or spots that are partially shadowed by the nearshore islands will be more reasonable in the shoulder-head high range with some of the best regional spots see some inconsistent overhead sets. Check out what a similar sized swell did in June. (pay less attention to the size of the swell on the model and more on where it hits along the coast)

Sort of needless to day but the non summer spots, the ones without Southerly exposure, will be fairly small...mostly knee-waist high off the local windswell mix.

Winds will be ok tomorrow. Mostly light and variable from the South Bay up through Santa Barbara, and slight southerly flow from Orange County down through San Diego. Expect a little texture for the areas that have the southerly flow but overall it will be clean. WNW winds 10-14 knots will fill in through the afternoon.

Points and reefs are definitely going to be the call tomorrow, but everyone pretty much knows this already, so expect some pretty heavy crowds at spots that can actually serve up a decent wave. Personally, since I am not much of a crowd guy, I would try and get a little creative with your surf spot tomorrow. There is enough energy, and enough of a tide swing, that a few spots that don’t break all that often might throw together a decent section. The exposed beach breaks are going to be walled up and sectiony, and the current will likely be a pain in the ass as well...try and hunt around for something that might break up the swell. Watch the negative low tide in the morning.

Have fun...stay are the tides

05:43AM LDT -1.0 L
12:01PM LDT 4.8 H
05:40PM LDT 1.3 L
11:30PM LDT 5.7 H


Anonymous said...

Adam, you know that every year at least one good sized swell hits where the whitewater brushes the bottom of the pier. I think this is that swell.

Sean Collins was in the announcer's booth @ lunch during Slater's heat and was pretty cagey while saying it was definitely the largest swell of the summer.

In his deadpan manner he mentioned the same things you and others have pointed out: the storm had 50kt winds, 35ft seas and was only 3.7k miles from SoCal.

The announcers were hinting at possible jet-ski assist to avoid having the guys get one close-out and then end up at Goldenwest on their way to Long Beach.

Hurley totally lucked out with both the swell & roster. The guy who wins will be gunning the pier out past the 2nd T (the bathrooms/fish shack). The images are going to be broadcast around the globe.

Anonymous said...

In terms of epic waves, this swell might produce waves too big for many spots, including Lowers. I've been out before where the swell broke outside and mushed through, not really following the point. (Sort of like when the Rincon bowl breaks and mushes past the point.)

My guess is the two best spots (those, that is, with public access) will be either Cottons and/or 1st point Malibu. It's not like this is revealing any big secret. And it's not like newcomers are going to get any waves either.

Both spots can handle giant swells without closing out. The only issue with Malibu is that sets might be break past the pier at low tide. I wanna see Sarlo ride past the end.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for raining on my parade, bastard. Seriously, however, check out the Malibu cam on Surfline--outrageous crowd! I counted 6 guys on 1 wave. Windandsea, SanO, Lowers, Cottons, Salt Creek, Malibu, Pt. Dume, Pt. Magoo, Silver Strand, Ranch, jalama, Piedras Blancas, Pleasure Pt...pts north including British Columbia

Christopher said...

I can't wait to take my Surftech out to PB and rip it up with 136 of my closest friends! Whitewater, here I come!

Anonymous said...

Hi Adm
Funny shi*
Hurley obviously doubled there ads in surfline. Lining Sean "Callings"
Pocket. Newport was one shoulder high bumpy rip tided out wall from the wedge to river jetties zero shape any where in town. I'm heading to Malibu or trestles.
The future of surf forecasting is obviosly the lie detector.
We can start a new website and make millions, where you give your report on video while hooked up to a lie detector interviewed by an FBI expert. Contact me.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for making me feel like I'm not the only one who thinks long-period, south swell close-outs with huge crowds are overrated. Don't get me wrong, I'll be out there, but it may be with fins and bodysurfing for barrels.

Anonymous said...

saddle up, boys! stop your bitchin, and either ride or stay home.

Anonymous said...

This morning, Trestles was big with 100+ people per peak... On the way up the coast, one place North of it had BIG left where you could do backflips inside the barrel... It too was CROWDED, fun to watch.

Personally, I'll skip getting my head bashed by the boards just bobbing around and getting caught on the inside. Have fun y'all.

Anonymous said...

Surfin cowboys are bithcin!
Saddle up?
Go Back to Texas!