Friday, July 31, 2009

Long Range Surf Forecast – 7/31/2009

Hey guys...I am stoked on the response to the poll on the long-range forecast.

I was planning, and the actual implementation of this will certainly evolve as it goes along, to post a long-range forecast every few days...but still post my daily/next-day forecast in the evenings. Hopefully this will give you guys a good look at the long-range information and let you plan your surfing a little further out...but still have the detailed updates that a lot of you like to use.

Here is the 1.0 version of the new long-range forecast...let me know what you think...I want to make this into something that you guys are going to be stoked to use.

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 7/31/2009 – The first of many

Forecast Overview
We can expect mostly leftover/small waves as we move into the first part of the weekend. New SW swell builds in through Sunday and peaks Sunday afternoon into Monday. The weekend swell will fade towards the middle of next week. More S-SW swell on tap for the 7-8th.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Saturday
We continue to see mostly leftover and background energy. Small/fading SW swell (190-220) will mix with some weak local WNW windswell and even the top breaks won’t be able to expect much push behind the sets. The average spots, with some SW exposure, will be in the knee-waist high range. The standout SW facing spots, mostly through South OC and North SD, will have some inconsistent chest high sets. Winds/Weather: Starting off light in the morning but still with enough onshore/eddy flow to set up texture at the open areas, cleaner at spots with some sort of protection from the wind. WNW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The day starts on the slow side...but a new SW swell (200-220) starts to move in with some 18-second period energy as we move through the day. Look for mostly knee-waist high+ surf at the average spots and some chest high+ sets at the standouts through the morning. The top breaks will add size as we head into the evening...topping out around chest-shoulder high with a couple of head high sets before sundown. Look for the biggest surf through the well exposed summer spots, and combo breaks, through Orange County, LA County, San Diego (and a few other scattered areas). Winds/Weather: Still a little light onshore bump for many areas in the morning, stick with spots that have some protection. Patchy fog in some areas as well. WNW winds build into the 10-15 knot for the afternoon.

Monday
The new SW swell (200-220) peaks as it mixes with some building local NW windswell. Most SW spots see some waist-chest high waves with some rare bigger sets. Standout SW spots, again in the OC, SD, and LA areas, will have chest-shoulder high surf with head high waves on the peak sets. The swell will be a little inconsistent at times, and still have a few tide issues in the afternoon but should be playful at the well exposed spots. Winds/Weather: Wind models are little funky for Monday but overall it looks mostly light/variable for the morning. A few areas will see some onshore bump but it shouldn’t be too bad. The usual afternoon winds build in out of the WNW (10-15+ knots).

Long-Range

North Pacific
This region is pretty quiet...I would post a chart but it would be the visual equivalent of crickets chirping. There will be some consistent NW winds moving through the outer waters so expect some on and off WNW-NW windswell energy to leak in over the next week or so.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been staying pretty active lately...nothing like the big swell...but with enough energy to kick out a couple of new swells over the next week or so. Look for a chest-shoulder high+ SW swell that moves in on Sunday/Monday (Aug 2-3) and then fades out slowly through the middle of next week. Further Out there is another storm brewing in a good portion of our swell window...check out the chart...



This storm will push out another chest-shoulder high S-SSW swell (180-200) that pushes in on Friday (Aug 7th) and holds through Saturday (Aug 8th) before fading slowly. Extreme long-range charts are showing a lot of tropical/sub-tropical energy mixing with higher latitude storms...which helps to energize and destabilize the storm track. Unfortunately there isn’t enough certainty to the forecast models to make a solid long-range call past the swell that hits on the 7-8th...but with the amount of activity occurring in the storm track I do expect at least 1-2 more playful sized swells before the middle of August.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
TS Lana formed over on the very edge of what is considered the NE tropical region...and then promptly drifted west towards Hawaii. No waves for us from her...



The rest of the NE Pacific tropics are looking fairly mellow...there are a couple of tropical waves (sort of like tropical disturbances that don’t have a lot form to them) but they are getting shut down by upper level sheer. Any changes are likely to occur after the weekend.

--------------------

Ok gang...that is the first go at the Long-range forecast for the blog...let me know what you think. - Adam

17 comments:

Tim said...

Is this basically the forecast you were writing for WaveWatch? I was bummed to see that your reports weren't going up there. But thankful to see them here. Nice work!

Adam Wright said...

Yeah this is pretty close to what I had going with them. At wavewatch I was sort of limited by the website format...so had to stick with that basic layout.

Since this was the (sort-of) first stab at the LR forecast on the blog...I thought I would toss it out there and see if you guys have some suggestions on how to improve it.

I always have to balance "this forecast is long and getting boring to read (and write)" vs going into a ton of detail...hopefully we will be able to come up with a nice balance.

Thanks for the feedback!

Borneo said...

Adam,

Your blog is fantastic. I really appreciate the LR forecast. I'm planning a trip to Baja next weekend and am pleased to see that there is a decent swell brewing that should land then. Do you think that Northern Baja will have good exposure for the 8/7-8/8 swell?

Thanks again for the forecasts. This is definitely my first (and sometimes my only) stop to check out the surf from the comfort of my office.

Mike

Anonymous said...

good stuff, man!

MyBallsYourChin said...

wavewatch's loss! thanks for the heads up on this weekend. sounds like it will be surfable.

Anonymous said...

u r the man!

Anonymous said...

Adam,
Goodluck with your transition.
I just clecked every ad for you and
**I want 2encourage every reader to click on every ad every time they pull up your blog to help support you the wife and kid(s).**

Wavewatch just became Wavebiatch!

I would like you to do what you have done i the past and have like a more details part for weather nerds section so both extremes get what they want.
Thank you, God bless you and your loved ones, Coconutz!

LCD said...

Thank you! Thank You! Thank You!

Anonymous said...

Really good!!!! I would like to see these more often to plan trips/work.

Stephen said...

I must've missed the poll, but I check the blog just about everyday. I am stoked that you are doing the long range forecast on the blog now. (I was bummed to here about wavewatch's decision ... hard times for everybody I guess) I really like the freedom that it will allow you. I always enjoy the little bits of advice you give on how to read charts and and where to find them.

I don't know how proficient you are in this branch of meteorology, but if you know a good a deal about ENSO it would be cool to get an update every so often so we really look far out there and dream about a winter that is better than the last one we had. Anyways I guess I am rambling now. Keep up the good work.

P.S. Everybody please remember to give Adam a courtesy click every now and again so he can keep this thing going.

The Pragmatic Progressive said...

Awesome. You're blog is the best! The long-range is exactly what we need. The first edition looks perfect. Keep it up and good luck.

deckmanx said...

Definitely digging the long range. I think a weekly or bi-weekly sort of long range forecast would be really great for planning ahead/getting stoked. Thanks!!!

Fun Hater said...

¡Me gusta mucho! Keep it up, Señor Adam. Maldita sea Wavewatch.

Anonymous said...

Great work! The LR forecast is excellent and can't tell you enough how much it's appreciated.

sef esq. said...

adam found the site about a yr ago
it is excellent the daily forecast is the industry standard for s. cal i try to fwd it to as many peeps as possible turned the lost crew onto it in el sal during the big swell of late april 09 turned my buddies of surfing lawyers onto it in popoyo nic. last season plz keep it up what would be great, if u have time is a costal geographic picture ie. s swell from 180 degrees is that best at pt. dume (my spot) or will it be too lined up and should i surf zeros etc or better said how can i figure out which way my regular spot faces thx sef.esq.

Anonymous said...

Adam, you da mang!!

cheerupcheerio said...

LOVE it, thank you :)