Monday, August 24, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/24/2009

Forecast Overview
More S-SW swell (180-200) piles in on the energy that peaked over the weekend and helps to keep overhead surf at the summer spots through Thursday before starting to slowly back off. Chance for a small NW swell to move in and cross up the S-SW’er by next weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

The S-SW swell (180-200 with still some more SW’erly energy in the background) will peak. Most spots will be in the chest-head high range. The standout S-SW facing spots, mostly in Orange County, the exposed areas of North LA, and Northern San Diego, will see consistent shoulder-overhead sets with some occasional bigger sets going a couple of feet overhead at times. Winds/Weather: Variable onshore through the morning but staying light overall. Look for slight texture with winds around 3-4 knots at the more exposed areas. NW winds 10-15 knots build in through the afternoon.

The S-SW’er (180-200) will continue to peak with consistent chest-head high surf at the average exposed areas. The standout S facing breaks will continue to see consistent shoulder-overhead sets with bigger waves mixing in. NW facing spots will be much smaller, holding closer to the knee-high+ range. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning with mostly clean conditions in most areas. Look for building WNW winds 10-14 knots filling in through the afternoon.

The S-SW swell (180-200) will start to slowly run out of steam…but playful surf will continue as it fades. We can still expect surf in the chest-shoulder high range at the average/above average S facing spots. The standout breaks will be more in the shoulder-head high range on sets but with a few inconsistent overhead waves mixing in through the morning. Look for slowly fading size and consistency as we move through the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning with mostly clean conditions in most areas. Look for building WNW winds 10-14 knots filling in through the afternoon.


North Pacific
Hmmm….this ocean is starting to look a bit more interesting all of a sudden. Forecast charts are showing the EPAC high-pressure starting to break down and shift slightly off to the west…as it does it is allowing some more storm development up in the Gulf of Alaska. I am still leery about getting too excited about early-season action…so I am not expecting a ton of the weak storms I am starting to see on the charts. That being said we can’t totally count it out until we see what really forms…so based on today’s charts it looks like a weak WNW-NW swell (290-300) lining up with waist-chest high surf at the standout winter spots around the 29-30th. Check out the storm on the forecast charts…it has good positioning but you have to be careful that the wind model isn't overcalling the intensity, particularly through the early part of a storm season.

South Pacific
We have the consistent and good sized S-SW swell mix that is going to hold on through most of the week. Look for average S facing spots to move into the shoulder-head high range while the standout S facing spots see consistent shoulder-overhead sizes and some less consistent sets going a couple of feet overhead. Some of the best deepwater breaks, the ones that focus the S swell, will have some bigger sets at times. This swell will start to slowly fade out on Friday and continue to back down through next weekend.

Further Out the SPAC is going a little quiet…not totally shutting down but not kicking out anything as big/consistent/or lengthy as our current run of swell. Currently I am not seeing a ton of good looking fetch for our area...but there are a couple of minor swells that will push through during the beginning of September. Look for a weak SSW swell (180-190) moves in around the 2nd…and another SSW’er possible around the 5-6th. Both of these look like knee-chest high swells (at the top spots)…so nothing to really get excited about. I don’t think this ocean is going to stay quiet for very long…a large looking system is showing a waaaays out on the charts…it is actually tearing up a lot of Southern Australia and New Zealand right now, but it will take several days to actually move into our swell window. Cross your fingers that it comes out blasting.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
New activity in the tropics as well…we have a large, partially organized, disturbance just to the SW of the tip of Baja. Current NHC forecasts are calling for this to become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours…with a high probability of becoming a named storm in the next 48 hours. With my luck it will be a named storm by dinner time and I will have to re-write all my forecasts. Sometimes I hate the tropics. Here are a couple of images of the disturbance.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 27, 2009

- Adam Wright

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You da man AW!!!