Monday, August 10, 2009

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 8/10/2009

Forecast Overview
We see a fading mix of tropical and Southern Hemi S-SW swell that peters out by Wednesday. New inconsistent SW swell and building NW windswell fill in on Thursday and keep things from going totally flat as we head toward next weekend.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Mix of both tropical and Southern Hemi S-SW energy (180-210) will be slowly fading on Tuesday while NW windswell stays small in the background. Most average spots will be in the knee-waist high range. Standout S facing spots will be in the chest high range. Expect the mix of dropping swell and high tides, pushing through around midday, to keep things pretty burgery after the dawn might want to stick with your small wave gear. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds through the morning and mostly clean conditions. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the W around 10-12 knots. Expect morning low-clouds and eventual clearing by the afternoon.

We will have mostly S-SW swell (180-210) leftovers. Most spots drop to about knee high while the standouts see some waist high waves with rare low-tide chest high sets. Looks pretty slow and gutless overall but there may be a few fun sections at the best S facing spots during the morning low tide. Definitely want your small wave boards. Winds/Weather:Same as Tuesday...Look for light and variable winds through the morning and mostly clean conditions. Afternoon winds come onshore out of the W around 10-12 knots. Expect morning low-clouds and eventual clearing by the afternoon.

The last bit of energy from the S-SW fades away and leaves us with some small SW swell (210-220) and building, but steeply angled NW windswell (295-300). Most spots will continue to see ankle-knee high surf. Standout NW facing spots, mostly through South Ventura, The South Bay, and parts of San Diego, see some waist high windswelly peaks...possibly bigger by the afternoon. Winds/Weather: Light and variable winds through the morning will turn westerly and build into the 10-14 knot range by the afternoon.


North Pacific
Still not much happening in the NPAC...high-pressure is building over the Gulf of Alaska (typical for this time of year) but leaves enough of a gap along the California Coast to let increasing NW winds start building some NW windswell in the outer waters (more typical of Springtime). Look for increasing NW windswell to filter through on Thursday and continue pushing through till Saturday/Sunday.

South Pacific
We will see fading S-SW swell from the Southern Hemi over the next few days. A small, shadowed pulse of SW swell (210-220) moves in on Thursday and limps through Friday before dropping slowly into the weekend. Further out while the majority of the storm track is in sort of zonal pattern (where the storm flow is mostly west-to-east and doesn’t make the important change in latitude) there is one storm that looks like it will set up some waves for us. The long-range charts are showing a pretty decent looking low-pressure forming just off the Antarctic Ice SE of New Zealand in about 3 days. The models are calling for solid 30-40’ seas near the core of the storm...and even some fetch bending our direction on the back end of the storm. If this storm can actually develop the way forecasts suggest we will be looking at a playful, but likely inconsistent, shoulder high SW swell for around the 21-22nd of August.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
More tropical activity working its way through the EPAC region. We had Tropical Depression 09E form late Sunday night and it is forecasted to intensify to a medium strength tropical storm by sometime on Tuesday. Unfortunately it is a pretty small storm at this point...and it is moving away from us, and speeding up (which limits the time the wind has to build swell before the storm moves away) so I am not expecting much surf from it.

Further East though there is another bigger “tropical wave” (sort of a large set of thunderstorms that are starting to show some early signs of development)...anyway this tropical wave may develop into another, better positioned, tropical storm in the next couple of days. Cross your fingers that we get some more tropical swell to fill in the gaps between the Southern Hemis.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, August 13, 2009

- Adam Wright

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Adam, I just found your forecast. Was a regular at Wetsand and was bummed to see your report gone. Thanks for the great report, this is clearly better anyway. Soren