Friday, January 9, 2009

Waves for the Weekend – Clean but a bit soft

Conditions-wise it is going to be a surf weekend…unfortunately it looks like there isn’t going to be a ton of surf to go along with the Santa Ana winds.

I was a little concerned about how fast the midweek WNW swell dropped off on us (basically it was fun on Wednesday and nearly gone by Thursday)…so I spent some quality time looking at some JASON-1 altimetry data and some of the QUIKscat satellite readings (which actually meant that I looked at some pretty maps and then I played Wii while I thought about things).

"Richard...It doesn't hurt here, or here...just righ here."
"My god what happened to your face?!"
"I knew it!"

Anyway looking at the hindcast data…I have had to downgrade the forecasts a bit…there will still be waves but I don’t think it is going to be all that great. We are going to see some small WNW-NW energy (290-300) and just some trace southern hemi background energy.

Most spots will be around knee-waist high on Saturday, and suffer through the midmorning high tide. The standout NW facing spots, mostly San Diego (even Ventura won’t get that much energy), will be around waist-chest high on most sets but will probably see a few chest-shoulder high faces sneaking through on the low tides in the afternoon.

Sunday will be pretty much the same but we should have a little more consistency as the WNW-NW sees a slight boost in energy.

Weather is going to be good, if that makes you feel better, the Santa Ana flow started up Friday afternoon and will continue through the weekend, showing strongest on Saturday. Look for N-NE winds around 10-15 knots for most areas for Saturday…but passes and Canyons in North LA county and Ventura could see gusts around 20-25 knots at times. Fire danger is going to go way up so keep an eye on that kind of stuff if you live in the hills. Sunday the Santa circulation backs off a touch but we should still see offshore flow in the morning…just a touch more onshore bump through the late afternoon.

Personally I wish the surf was going to be a bit bigger, but with the Santa Ana’s and warmer temps, I think we can still find a few fun waves. The midmorning tides are going to be a bit lame but if you can get out on either side of the high-tide peak there should be a few playful sets. I would stick to the smaller wave gear (longboards and fish) for most spots…and probably fishier shapes at the top breaks.

Fortunately there is some more storm action forming out the back…we might want keep our calendars clear around the middle-end of January.

Here are tides…have a good one!

01:30AM LST 1.8 L
07:39AM LST 6.9 H
03:06PM LST -1.8 L
09:28PM LST 4.0 H

02:22AM LST 1.6 L
08:27AM LST 6.9 H
03:47PM LST -1.8 L
10:08PM LST 4.2 H


Anonymous said...

dammit well if its anything like today i wont be surfing and watching football and i guess i will just have to skool you in Wii bowling at halftime Sunday

Pezman said...

(Eyeballs the long term forcast and drools)

Well, even if we get skunked this weekend, prospects are finally up again! Woohoo! Take that La Nina!

Anonymous said...

Never happened on Friday and it's only gonna get worse this weekend. CDIP is already down to 6.6 from 305 and falling fast.

With a 7.2 coming in around 8am, say goodbye to morning. The super drain out in the afternoon could be fun on a log, but only if the winds aren't blowing over 20mph.

If you're over 25 and have a significant other, here's what I would do (actually, am doing):
* hang with the s/o in the am - bank some quality time so you can bail on a moment's notice the next time it gets good;
* if you have kids, hit up the tide pools in the afternoon - it's one of the lowest tides of the year today.

Then, after you get back from a fun day outside, crack a beer(s) and watch some football!

Btw, anyone see the Surfline pictorial of Monday's SPAC & Wed's NPAC swells? Got lucky and caught both days at prime spots, so I'm good to go for another month (kidding).

Anonymous said...

Man! I tried a shoe dryer on my booties and they caught fire! The house almost burnt down and my girlfriend is pissed!