Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Surf for Thursday – Rain, some wind, and a few waves

On the surface Thursday doesn’t look like a surf day for most areas...but the models aren’t really sure what the winds will be doing tomorrow morning sooooo if you don’t mind a little rain there may be some surfable pockets.

Our WNW swell (285-300...but mostly 290-300) will continue to send in some waves but will be winding down overall. We can still expect waves in the chest high+ range at the average exposed breaks. Standout spots will have surf in the shoulder-head high range with some bigger sets through the morning.

Weather is where we are going to trip up...the storm that is supposed to send us some rain and wind is basically a little spinner off the isn’t very large, or wide, or intense, but is churning up enough moisture and energy from the tropics/subtropics that it will disrupt our conditions. At this point the real issue is where the low is going to move over the coast...if it comes in lower in latitude we get the rain but semi-offshore winds...if it comes in higher in latitude we get rain and onshore winds...or somewhere in between.

Right now no one is really sure how this thing is going to set up...NWS is saying E-SE winds 10-20+ knots tomorrow (but mostly East offshore winds)...and the COAMPS and WWIII models are calling for W onshore winds...and everyone is calling for rain. (It is a total pain in the ass). Here is a shot of the COAMPS...

Anyway...what it boils down to is that we are going to have to break out the surf cams...and the much more accurate Mark-IV eyeball. If you live close to the beach keep an eye on the trees (you know you do already)...and if you have to drive a ways, then you might want to let it get light enough to see a surf-cam or two before hopping in the car.

If winds are light...stick with the winter spots that have been working the last couple of days. If the winds are out of the SE there are a few areas spread around that could still be surfable. If it is straight out of the W-WNW then you might as well go back to bed.

Here are the tides...

12:10AM LST 2.6 L
06:18AM LST 5.2 H
01:57PM LST -0.5 L
08:31PM LST 3.4 H

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

blackies all the way to 40th st. was pretty fun today. some good barrels off the jetties.