Monday, June 22, 2009

Tropical Storm Update – TD-02E develops into Tropical Storm Andres

Our first named storm of the tropical season brewed to life on Sunday and has already intensified up to Tropical Storm, named Andres, by early on Monday.

We had TD-02E form over the weekend down near the coast of Southern Mainland Mexico. Over the last 24 hours the system has strengthened, become more organized, and is quickly on its way to becoming fairly strong Tropical Storm and possibly even a hurricane.

At this point the storm is not a wave-maker for California, or even the Pacific Side of Baja. Check out the map...

The core of the storm is still pinned in pretty close to Mainland Mexico (Just south of Puerto Vallarta)…and the forecast track for the storm has it moving closer to the mainland as it tracks WNW over the next few days.

Because the storm is moving through warmer waters, and it has a very slow movement speed (WNW at 3-knots) it looks like it will become a hurricane by Tuesday.

From a surf perspective it looks like the Tip of Baja is going to be the best spot…at least for the first part of the week. The storms track is going almost directly at it…and will continue to due so for the next couple of days. Top it off with increasing winds and a more organized system and you have a recipe for some decent swell. At this point I expect a run of chest-head high (and this is me being conservative) tropical swell filling in later on Tuesday but then peaking Wednesday and Thursday with bigger sets.

There are a couple of things that you are going to want to watch for…first if you try and surf the tip…the storm is heading that way, plan on having a way to escape if bears down on your area. Second…I am not so stoked on how close the storm is to mainland mexico…which means it is getting some of its fetch interrupted by land and shallow seas, both of which can hamper swell production.

At this point I think that getting waves from TS Andres is still pretty much a crapshoot…yeah there will be surf but the weather could easily come along with. Personally I would probably pass on this storm and wait for something with a little better positioning.

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