Waves for the weekend – plan on surfing...a lot.

Both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days...so plan on setting a few hours aside to ride some waves this weekend.

The playful NW/SW combo that we have been seeing the last few days will get some reinforcement as both a new NW swell (290-300) and a new SSW (180-200) mix in over the weekend. The NW’er will actually peak late Friday night but will hold waves through Saturday before dipping slightly on Sunday. The SSW’er will fill in slowly on Saturday and will peak into early Sunday, holding waves into the start of next week.



So for the weekend...look for surf to hang around waist-chest high+ at the average exposed breaks. Better NW facing spots will be closer to chest-shoulder high range on Saturday, and the better SSW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on Sunday. The top combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets throughout the weekend. A few of the best breaks might see some slightly bigger peaks as the swells cross up on the sets.

Winds look good for both Saturday and Sunday morning. We can expect light and variable to slightly offshore conditions from the dawn patrol through midmorning. Building onshore flow picks up around lunchtime but only really hits the westerly 10-12 knot range by later in the afternoon. Sunday may see the wind pick up a little earlier...so if you want to avoid the bump you might want to try and motivate closer to sunup.

Saturday Morning Winds


Sunday Morning Winds


The mix of swells is going to send playful rideable waves to spots all over Southern California...but please keep in mind that Santa Barbara will be a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands. North LA, particularly as you get close to Santa Monica, will also be a touch smaller thanks to being tucked back into a more shadowed area. It won’t be flat in either area...just don’t expect as much combo-funness as the other more exposed spots.

The biggest surf is going to be showing in San Diego, Southern Ventura, and parts of Orange County...and will shift around those regions as the NW and SSW swells peak. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the most fun...especially if they have some decent sandbars and/or can handle a little fatter of a tide that hits midday. The points and reefs will be good too, but may be a touch shifty compared to how they behave on the pure single swells. Personally I am going to try and crawl out of bed for the dawn patrols on both mornings...the high tide is slowly pushing closer to lunchtime so I think there is going to be a better window for clean, tide-pushed, surf through the first part of the day.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend...hope you score a playful little peak of your own (there will be plenty out there). Definitely watch that midmorning high tide...it is a swampthing.

Saturday
03:50AM LDT 0.2 L
09:55AM LDT 5.9 H
04:23PM LDT 0.0 L
10:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Sunday
04:21AM LDT 0.8 L
10:26AM LDT 6.0 H
05:09PM LDT 0.0 L
11:08PM LDT 4.6 H

Surf on Friday – waaaaay better than working

Friday is going to be another surf day

We are going to see more NW swell (290-300) fill in through the day and mix with some leftover S-SW swells (190-220), and some very background tropical energy.

The new NW’er will be starting to show in the Santa Barbara (pretty shadowed there though), Ventura, and South Bay regions during the dawn patrol. Not a ton of new size at first…but it will fill in the sets, and add a bit of punch to the exposed areas.

Orange County and San Diego will be working though the leftovers of our previous NW’er during the morning but the new NW swell will fill in more as we move throughout the day…eventually peaking in those areas late in the day and overnight into Saturday.



Surfwise tomorrow the average spots will hold in the waist high range with some inconsistent chest high sets. The better exposed NW facing breaks, and the good combo spots will see more consistent chest high surf with some shoulder high sets.

Standout NW facing spots and excellent combo spots, mostly through Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego, will have consistent waist-shoulder high surf with some bigger sets mixing in as the NW swell fills in more throughout the day.

Winds look good tomorrow…light and variable to slightly offshore in the morning. It may have a slight SE tint to it around LA County…but for the most part it will be clean through there as well. Look for a gradual increase in onshore flow, topping out 10-12 knots out of the west, through the afternoon.





It looks like more combo swell fun tomorrow…but with the NW spots seeing the most activity…and the summer spots being a bit inconsistent at times. I think your best bet is going to be the early morning dawn patrol (if you can motivate)…the tide will still be filling in, the winds will be good, and there will be enough swell in the water to have some fun. The nearly 6-foot high tide that hits midmorning is going to swampthing out most spots…so you might need to stick to the spots that can handle the extra water if you plan on surfing after 8am or so. If you don’t mind some extra bump it looks like the afternoon low tide might be fun as well…and like I said in the title, even bumpy surf is way better than working on a sunny Friday.

Here are the tides…

03:19AM LDT -0.2 L
09:24AM LDT 5.7 H
03:38PM LDT 0.2 L
09:35PM LDT 5.7 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 9/17/2009

Forecast Overview
Looks like a surf weekend coming up…we will have a mix of new NW and SSW swell pulsing in over the next couple of days mixing with decent morning tides and light winds. More playful sized combo swell (and more clean conditions) will be on tap for most of next week as well.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday
New NW swell (290-300) moves into SoCal and overlaps the playful NW pulse that we are already seeing. The new energy will show mostly in Ventura/LA for the morning but will trickle down to OC and San Diego as we move throughout the day. This blend of NW’ers will be mixing with some S-SW energy (190-220), and some background tropical energy. Most NW facing spots and SW combo breaks will hold around waist-chest high on the sets. The standout NW facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be around waist-shoulder high with some bigger sets mixing in on the lower tides. Winds/Weather: Conditions look clean for the morning with mostly light/variable to light offshore flow. Look for W-WNW winds around 10-12 knots for the afternoon.

Saturday
The NW swell (290-300) will hold while a new SSW swell (180-200) moves in later in the afternoon. Wave heights will generally be the same as Friday but we will lose a touch of size at the NW facing spots while the S facing breaks get a little energy. Basically it is a win for the combo breaks. Expect the average spots to hold in the waist-chest high range while the standout NW breaks and good combo spots see some waist-shoulder high surf and some shoulder high+ sets at times. Winds/Weather: Clean conditions continue…mostly light and variable for the morning. WNW winds around 10-14 knots move in through the afternoon.

Sunday
The NW’er backs off a touch more but the S-SSW swell (180-200) starts to peak. Look for more waist-chest high+ surf at the better S facing breaks, particularly ones that can pull in a bit of the leftover NW’er. Top combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range. Winds/Weather: Winds continue to look good…mostly light and variable to even light offshore for the morning…and just moderate NW winds (10-12 knots) by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
The North Pacific is continuing to pick up steam. Of course it hasn’t cranked up to full winter strength but it has been able to roll out a series of playful sized WNW-NW swells that have blended nicely with some playful Southern Hemi swells.

The trend of decent Fall-sized NW swells will continue as we move through the weekend and into next week. New NW energy starts to arrive on Friday and will peak overnight into Saturday before fading slowly on Sunday, (get the size/direction details in the short-range section). The swell sort of stabilizes in the knee-chest high range as we move into early next week…holding rideable waves at the NW facing spots through Monday and Tuesday.



Further Out the forecast charts are showing another decent storm moving through the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple of days that will set up another round of NW energy (290-300) filling in on the 23rd and then peaking the 24th with more waist-chest high+ sized surf at the top spots. Looks like more WNW-NW swell (285-300) moving in on the 25-26th with similar sizes…and then the potential for a bigger, shoulder high+, NW’er around the 27-28th.

South Pacific
While the SPAC has been on the zonal side lately it hasn’t totally shut off swell production…we have a few small S and SW swells moving in over the next several days that will hold playful waves at the S facing and combo spots.

New S-SSW swell (180-200) peaks on Sunday the 20th and holds waves through the 21st. Another similar sized SSW swell (180-205) moves in on the 22nd and holds more waist-shoulder waves through the middle of next week.



Further out in the SPAC it looks like some new storm action pulling together around New Zealand that will poop (that’s right I said poop) out another SW swell (190-210) that will send more chest-shoulder high waves to the top spots around the 27-28th.

Northeast Pacific Tropics
Currently we have TS Marty cruising about 200-300 miles SSW of the tip of Baja (about 700 miles SSE of Socal)…he is in our swell window but there is not much to like about him. He isn’t a very strong storm, his wind speeds (and directions) have been questionable, and his position isn’t that great. I don’t expect much, if any, rideable surf from Marty…just a slight increase energy from the SE that may help to prop up the better looking SPAC swells.





There is another tropical disturbance brewing closer to Mainland Mexico…but it is taking its time getting organized…something may spin up over the next couple of days, but it will still have some travel time to reach our swell window, so it looks like our chance for tropical swell is pretty slim at this point.

Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 21, 2009


Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.Socalsurf.com