Waves for the weekend – plan on surfing...a lot.

Both Saturday and Sunday are going to be surf days...so plan on setting a few hours aside to ride some waves this weekend.

The playful NW/SW combo that we have been seeing the last few days will get some reinforcement as both a new NW swell (290-300) and a new SSW (180-200) mix in over the weekend. The NW’er will actually peak late Friday night but will hold waves through Saturday before dipping slightly on Sunday. The SSW’er will fill in slowly on Saturday and will peak into early Sunday, holding waves into the start of next week.



So for the weekend...look for surf to hang around waist-chest high+ at the average exposed breaks. Better NW facing spots will be closer to chest-shoulder high range on Saturday, and the better SSW facing breaks will be chest-shoulder high on Sunday. The top combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some head high sets throughout the weekend. A few of the best breaks might see some slightly bigger peaks as the swells cross up on the sets.

Winds look good for both Saturday and Sunday morning. We can expect light and variable to slightly offshore conditions from the dawn patrol through midmorning. Building onshore flow picks up around lunchtime but only really hits the westerly 10-12 knot range by later in the afternoon. Sunday may see the wind pick up a little earlier...so if you want to avoid the bump you might want to try and motivate closer to sunup.

Saturday Morning Winds


Sunday Morning Winds


The mix of swells is going to send playful rideable waves to spots all over Southern California...but please keep in mind that Santa Barbara will be a bit smaller thanks to shadowing from Point Conception and the Channel Islands. North LA, particularly as you get close to Santa Monica, will also be a touch smaller thanks to being tucked back into a more shadowed area. It won’t be flat in either area...just don’t expect as much combo-funness as the other more exposed spots.

The biggest surf is going to be showing in San Diego, Southern Ventura, and parts of Orange County...and will shift around those regions as the NW and SSW swells peak. I think that the combo beach breaks will be the most fun...especially if they have some decent sandbars and/or can handle a little fatter of a tide that hits midday. The points and reefs will be good too, but may be a touch shifty compared to how they behave on the pure single swells. Personally I am going to try and crawl out of bed for the dawn patrols on both mornings...the high tide is slowly pushing closer to lunchtime so I think there is going to be a better window for clean, tide-pushed, surf through the first part of the day.

Here are the tides...have a great weekend...hope you score a playful little peak of your own (there will be plenty out there). Definitely watch that midmorning high tide...it is a swampthing.

Saturday
03:50AM LDT 0.2 L
09:55AM LDT 5.9 H
04:23PM LDT 0.0 L
10:21PM LDT 5.2 H

Sunday
04:21AM LDT 0.8 L
10:26AM LDT 6.0 H
05:09PM LDT 0.0 L
11:08PM LDT 4.6 H

Swell Alert (Update) - Waves for the weekend

I thought I would give an update on the new WNW swell (275-300+) that we have heading our way...maybe help you plan your weekend a little better.

Like I said earlier this week...this swell is pretty healthy but it isn’t going to be massive. It isn’t going to cure cancer, or cause every man/woman/child that looks at it to burst into flames or anything. It is sort of an average winter swell...it just seems like more since it has been so small on and off over the last couple of months. If you are looking for double-overhead+ surf you are going to need to go North of Point Conception, and even then you are going to need to head to the better exposed spots.


The swell...it burns...look away!

Ok now that I got that out of my system...

It does look like we are going to have some fun this weekend. There will be plenty of waves (of various sizes) at almost all W-NW facing beaches throughout SoCal. We are going to have to deal with some island shadowing and refraction at some spots...but it will be rideable in some form in every region.

Probably the best place to start is with a visual...check out the CDIP sideways forecast.



As you can see the swell really gets going on Saturday and holds into Sunday (Friday looks pretty sad). You can also see that it doesn’t hit all of the areas with the same amount of energy...yeah there are little pockets of lighter blue spread all over...but it isn’t consistent, which is going to be the case on the beach as well.

This map is a little misleading since it groups the wave heights into 3-foot segments...(and there is quite a difference between a 6’ wave a 9’ wave)...so you have to take the model with a grain of salt.

Here is how I see it breaking down by region...

Santa Barbara – It will be chest-shoulder high for most of the exposed spots...getting smaller as you move further away from Ventura. A few of the top spots may have some head high sets sneaking in at times. There will be some shadowing issues as well thanks to an undersea ridge that pulls long-period energy into the beaches closer to Point Conception. (I actually think this area will be more fun on Sunday and into early next week as the swell periods get shorter and the swell gets a little more westerly).

Ventura – Mostly shoulder-head high at the average spots. Top breaks will be more consistently in the shoulder-overhead range with sets going a couple of feet overhead as the swell peaks. Southern Ventura will be more consistently overhead. Again expect smaller sizes as you move closer to Santa Barbara.

LA – Most of the average W-NW facing spots in North LA will be around chest high with some chest-shoulder high sets. Top spots may see some bigger sets. The South Bay will be bigger...lots of waves in the shoulder-head high+ range at the better areas. Top spots will go a couple of feet, maybe a bit bigger at the deepwater spots, on the sets.

Orange County – Average W facing spots chest-shoulder high...maybe shoulder high+ on the bigger sets. Top NW facing spots, mostly through North County, will see shoulder-head high+ surf with sets going 1-2’ overhead at the spots that can focus the swell a bit better.

San Diego – This is the best exposed region...most W facing spots throughout the county will be consistently shoulder high to overhead on sets. The top winter spots, mostly from La Jolla southward, will be consistently overhead with sets going 2-3’+ overhead as the swell peaks...maybe a little less punchy on Sunday.

Northern Baja – sees similar size to San Diego for the exposed areas closer to the border...expect sizes to drop off as you move further south into the more protected areas of the North/Central Coast.


I know that this is quite a bit of detail...probably more than some of you would like “everyone else” to have...but pretty much everyone, their cousin, and their dog already knows about this swell, (if they don’t their friend just called to tell them). It is also going to be nice this weekend weatherwise and a lot of people have MLK day off...so that is just going to make things more crowded. Hopefully you will be able to use the forecast to find a semi-quiet pocket to grab a couple of waves...(at least there are going to be waves for a few days in a row). I know I am going to be checking out the lesser quality spots to see if I can find a little slice of fun.

I will probably post a buoy update and some weather stuff tomorrow...but unless I see some massive chance this will be the forecast for the weekend. Have a good one!

Sat
01:50AM LST 4.6 H
08:57AM LST 1.4 L
02:17PM LST 2.8 H
07:41PM LST 1.6 L

Sun
02:47AM LST 4.7 H
10:36AM LST 1.1 L
04:38PM LST 2.5 H
08:35PM LST 2.2 L