Friday’s Surf – S-SW swell and a touch of eddy

Friday looks like a surf day…but it may be hiding in the morning fog in a few areas.

We are going to have a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) that will be starting to peak around midday and some NW energy (290-300) coming from a mix of local windswell and some various background NPAC storms.



Check it out…you can see the new S-SW swell showing on the buoys this evening…



Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the excellent NW/S combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see surf in the chest-shoulder high range with some inconsistent head+ sets mixing in on the lower tides. Since a lot of the energy will be from the Southern Hemi, expect some long waits between the bigger sets.

Winds and weather look ok for Friday…not great…just sort of ok. We have a coastal eddy forming tonight that is going to set up some light onshore flow for Santa Barbara down through Northern LA County. The eddy is forecast to center around San Clemente Island which would lighten up winds for the southern regions. So at this point it looks like light/variable winds for the South Bay and then staying light on down to San Diego. One bad thing about this eddy is that it is going to cool off the air pretty quick…and as it does there could be some heavy fog (patchy heavy fog) in a few areas. So if you are unlucky enough to get the fog there may be some funky winds around the edges. Look for WSW-W winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Overall Friday looks like a surf day…but there are a lot of little things that could trip it up. Funky winds, a fat morning tide, inconsistent swell, dolphins, (just to name a few)…if we get the wrong mix it might keep conditions/shape from being all that good. Personally I am going to give the winds/weather a computer check in the morning before hopping in the truck…I am crossing my fingers that the eddy isn’t too strong, and that the fog holds further off the coast.

Here are the tides…

04/09/2010 Friday
01:17AM LDT 1.7 L
06:53AM LDT 4.1 H
01:34PM LDT 0.4 L
07:50PM LDT 4.1 H

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/08/2010

Hey gang…I took a little vacation with the family over the last week, which was the reason for the lack of forecasts. (Actually I made the mistake of trying to us my laptop as both a way to work and a way to entertain the kids…amazingly it is really hard to forecast while the Clone Wars cartoons are blasting away). Anyway…I am back in action and the forecasting should settle back into its normal pattern.

Forecast Overview

New S swell is moving in this afternoon and will peak Friday and Saturday, just as the weather cools off and we get a bit of a coastal eddy forming up. Sunday will start off with mostly leftovers but a stronger cold front is forecast to arrive through the afternoon/nighttime and bring rain, wind, and possibly some W swell for Monday. Cleaner conditions and more southern hemi swells are starting to stack up out the back.

Short Range (next 4 days)

Friday – (S-SW swell strengthens…with a touch of eddy)
There will be some semi-combo fun on Friday…we will see a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) from a couple of different swells and we will also have some steeper angled NW windswell (290-300) that will continue to push in through the background. There aren’t that many beaches that can pull in both S and NW swells, which is why I am only calling it a “semi-combo”, but there are a few…so look for the biggest waves at those really exposed spots. Average breaks will be in the waist-chest high range. The standout S facing spots and the excellent combo breaks, mostly through Orange County and parts of San Diego, will see surf in the chest-head high range with some inconsistent overhead sets mixing in. Winds/Weather: A coastal eddy is forecast to form on Friday…brining some light onshore flow for SB down through North LA and some light/variable winds in the South Bay down through San Diego. Most areas will have winds below 10-knots but there is a chance at some onshore texture in the most open areas. Look for W-WSW winds around 10-14 knots for the afternoon.



Saturday – (S-SW swell peaks while the weather cools)
The mix of S-SW swell (180-210) will continue to peak while the random blips of NW energy wind down. Most spots will be in the waist-chest high range while the standout S facing breaks continue to see shoulder-head high surf with some bigger sets mixing in at times. Expect the sets to be on the inconsistent side…particularly on the tide drop. Winds/Weather: The weather goes into a weird transition period on Saturday. There is a storm forecast to develop off the coast, but it isn’t close enough to really affect our region (yet). Current wind forecasts are showing another day of eddy circulation, but I think that it is a bit early to tell how intense it will be. Expect variable onshore texture, mostly out of the S-SE, around 5-8 knots…winds shift more SW-WSW around 10-15 knots for the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stupid Storm )
Looks like we are going to get another round of spring storminess on Sunday…which is going to jack up the weather, especially by the afternoon. Swellwise we are going to see the S-SW swell holding/slowly fading as we move throughout the day…there will also be a mix of building S-SW-W wind/stormswell from this front as it approaches…most of that slop won’t be surfable but it will be out there mixing it up. Most S facing spots will continue to see waist-chest high surf while the standout spots see chest-head high surf. Winds/Weather:



Monday – (More stupid Storm and building swell)
The storm is forecast to peak Sunday night into Monday morning…so it looks like S-SW winds and rain will be on tap for Monday morning, which is a laaaaaame way to start a work week. Swellwise our surf will be on the way up…the W swell (260-290) that is coming along with this storm will arrive and mix with a still healthy tail end of the S-SSW swell (180-200). Most spots will be in the chest-head high range, while the top W facing spots and the excellent combo spots (mostly in Ventura, the South Bay, parts of OC, and Southern SD), will have overhead+ sets. Shape looks nasty…but maybe the weather won’t be as bad as it looks today. Winds/Weather: The front is supposed to be passing over Socal Monday morning so W winds around 10-15 knots will be on tap in the areas that the front has passed over. The spots still in the path of the front will see S winds (and rain) around 10-15 knots. All areas should see W winds around 15-20 knots for the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
Still a little life left in the NPAC…though I am finding it harder to trust the long-range portion of the forecasts as we move further away from the winter. I am however seeing some short-range action…it looks like we have a close proximity storm forecast to form up a few hundred miles off of the California coast in the next 2-3 days.



As it develops it is supposed to set up some W-NW storm swell at the same time…



I am not sure how much stock I am willing to put into the W-NW swell from this system but for the time being the swell models like it…so I will keep some head high/overhead sizes at the top spots in the forecast, but a lot is going to depend on how this storm actually forms.

Further out the GFS weather model is calling for another similar storm (similar to the one forecast to form this weekend) forming later next week, around Friday (April 16). If this lives up to forecasts we could see some more weather, and possibly more W-NW swell hitting around April 18-20.

South Pacific
Looks like we are going to see a long string of overlapping S-SW swells moving out of the South Pacific for at least the next week…possibly holding onto some sort of energy till almost the end of the month.



First up is a decent sized SSW-SW swell (190-215) that started to arrive on Thursday with some long-period energy. This swell will turn more S-SSW’erly and peak Friday afternoon, holding into Saturday, and then backing down slowly Sunday/Monday. As this one peaks it looks good for chest-shoulder high+ surf at the average SSW facing breaks and head high+ sets at the standout SW facing breaks.



Further out there are a bunch more storms that roll through the SPAC…if you looked just at the flat-map version of the swell model you would start to think they weren’t all that good looking…but if you look at the model in a “globe” projection, which is the most realistic view…



…you can see that there is a whole section of the storm track that lines up well with Socal…some of it is shadowed by the SPAC islands but there is enough wind headed our direction that we can expect some playful swell.

At this point it looks like another S-SSW swell (180-200) moves in with chest-shoulder high+ surf on April 13-14 (mostly the 14th). Then another shot of SSW-SW swell (200-220) would start filling in on the 15-16th…likely peaking late on the 16th and into the 17th. Even further out it looks like we could see more SSW swell heading our way for the 19th…but this last one still has a few days before developing.

the Next Long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, April 12th, 2010.

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/

Southern California Long-range Surf Forecast – 4/01/2010

Forecast Overview

No stupid April’s fools tricks in the forecast today…well other than the ones that the local weather is playing on my wind forecasts. Stupid wind, I hate you. Conditions are going to clean up a bit on Friday...or at least stay cleaner a little longer in the morning. The WNW-NW swell will be backing off while a new S swell moves in. Both swells stabilize and hold into Saturday before fading a bit more on Sunday.

Short Range (next 3 days)

Friday – (Cleaning up combo swell)
The WNW-NW swell mix (280-300) will be on the way out on Friday...and since the swell didn’t produce all that much for the lesser exposed spots…I am not expecting it to hang around very long. There will be an ok S swell (170-200) that will start to peak on Friday...again this will be ok, not great, so we are going to have to cross our fingers that these swells can try and combo into something worthwhile. Sizewise I think that the average spots are going to hold around waist-chest high with some chest high+ sets. The standout combo spots will be more in the waist-shoulder high range on average with some bigger head high+ waves mixing in at the beaches with either really good NW exposure or really, really good S swell exposure. Winds/Weather: The winds shift back to normal as high pressure tries to rebuild over Socal. Look for light and variable winds for most spots in the morning, and some N winds around Santa Barbara and Ventura. Afternoon winds push in out of the NW around 10-15 knots.



Saturday – (Surfy in the morning, but breezy by midday)
We will continue to see a mix of WNW-NW energy, mostly windswell (280-300) and S swell (170-200). Average spots will see waist-chest high surf while the standout NW and S facing breaks (as well as the best combo spots) will be in the chest-shoulder high range with some bigger head high sets mixing in on the low tides. Winds/Weather: Look for light and variable winds for the morning with some onshore flow/texture/lump to the more exposed areas. The winds turn onshore pretty fast and will eventually build to 12-18 knots from the WNW-NW by the afternoon.



Sunday – (Stormy? WTFK anymore…)
Another cold front is forecast to move through late Sunday and on into Monday…but the weather model has definitely been overcalling these things…so at this point we are sort of in wait and see mode. Right now it looks like the mix of local WNW-NW windswell, slowly fading S swell, and some background medium period NW swell (290+), will be on tap for Sunday…holding most spots around the waist-chest high range, and pushing the top spots into the shoulder high+ range. Winds/Weather: Looks like variable onshore winds for the morning…mostly light…but with enough speed to put some texture on it. Look for the WNW-NW winds to build into the 15-20 knot range by the afternoon.



Long-Range

North Pacific
We have a strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska centered just off the Pacific NW Coast this bad-boy is going to be sending us some new WNW-NW swell (280-300+) over the next few days…peaking mostly Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday morning.



The NPAC still isn’t quite shutting down…but it also isn’t doing anything particularly spectacular. At this point it looks like a new storm up around the Aleutians will set up new NW swell (290-300+) that will arrive around April 4-6. It also looks like another storm could develop next to California around the same time…so we could see another mix of local windswell, longer-period NW swell, and funky weather all arriving early next week…just what we need.

Further out is pretty bland…high-pressure is starting to get all springy and is pushing the storm track further north, which is putting the fading storm action out of the Socal swell window. By the end of next week the forecasts have the NE Pacific high hitting a 1040-mb mark, which in weather nerd speak means that it has almost reached the atmospheric equivalent of concrete. About the only good thing about this is that the high is still close enough to the California coast that it will help to set up some nice weather by the middle/end of next week.

South Pacific
The SPAC has been getting more active lately and the storms seem to be a little more frequent than what we even had a few weeks ago. Right now new long-period S-swell (170-200) is starting to filter into the buoys…but it is mostly getting lost in the noisy WNW-NW swell/windswell. This swell will peak on Friday and into Saturday before slowly dropping off. If conditions were going to be cleaner I would say that this swell would be pretty playful at the exposed spots...but at this point it looks like local windswell and winds will tear a lot of the fun out of the swell. Look for some waist-shoulder high surf at the above average S facing breaks…inconsistent at times…but punchy enough when the sets show. The standout S facing spots, mostly through OC and SD, will have chest-shoulder high surf with a few bigger sets mixing in.



Further out There is another storm just pulling together now that is starting to put together some decent numbers…and if the winds come through right we could see a pretty decent SSW-SW swell (190-215) that will arrive with really long-period energy on April 8 but likely peak on April 9-10…and hang around for a few days after that as well. It looks like it will be good for chest-head high surf at the average SW facing spots and overhead sets at the standout breaks. This storm is much better aimed towards Mainland Mex and Central America…and it roughly hits around the same time...just bigger, with warm water, and cold beer…are you still reading this? Why? Shoo? Go book at ticket…and send me photos so that I can live vicariously through you.

Actually I am going on a little vacation myself…I will have my computer but I will probably unplug a bit…so the Next Long-range forecast MIGHT be posted on Monday, April 5th, 2010…and if it isn’t, just wait longer. :)~

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
http://www.socalsurf.com/