Waves for the weekend – windswell you are our only hope

It is not going to be a surf weekend...lack o swell will be the name of the game.

There will be a few weak waves scattered around, and any water time is better than sweating, but overall it is going to be pretty small. We are going to have a mix of weak leftovers both from the NW and SW as well as some local WNW-NW windswell that will slowly increase through Saturday night into Sunday. Unfortunately, as with most local windswells, the local conditions aren’t going to be all that great since the winds setting up the new energy come in right behind and junk it up.

Here is a current CDIP shot of what we got going on this Friday.



And this is what will be slowly crawling in this weekend.



On Saturday we are going to see more small surf in the morning...mostly knee high and below for the average spots. Top NW facing breaks, and the good combo spots, will be around waist high on the sets. There will be a little more size in the afternoon as the winds push in more windswell but shape and quality of the size-increase will be pretty shaky.

Sunday we might have a slightly more surfable morning as the windswell holds from the night before and the onshore winds sort of back down around sunup. I am expecting more knee high surf at the average breaks, but the better NW windswell spots should be more consistently in the waist high range with a few waist to almost-chest-high waves mixing in on the low tides.

Winds don’t look that great...NW flow is expected to increase this weekend (it is where the windswell is coming from)...and while it might cool off our air temps a bit, it will also junk up conditions pretty early each day. Look for variable onshore winds in the morning, mostly around 2-5 knots...then building NW-W winds around 12-15+ knots for the afternoon (with stronger gusts in some of the more exposed areas).

Saturday Morning Winds


Sunday Morning Winds


Like I said...not much going on this weekend...and while I put the NW windswell in the forecast, the fact that I am even talking about it is bad sign for our surf for the next couple of days. Personally I will probably take a longboard down the beach, push my kids into a few weak dribblers and try and take advantage of the warm water while it lasts. I wouldn’t spend any sort of quality time looking at the surf, or burning a lot of $3-a-gallon gas to get to the beach unless you are just going to cool off (and don’t care about the flatness).

Here are the tides...fat lot of good they will do us.

Saturday
04:09AM LDT 0.4 L
10:12AM LDT 5.0 H
04:18PM LDT 1.1 L
10:11PM LDT 5.0 H

Sunday
04:30AM LDT 0.7 L
10:35AM LDT 5.1 H
04:55PM LDT 0.9 L
10:47PM LDT 4.6 H

Monday’s Surf – a tiny pickup

For the most part Monday’s surf is going to be much like the weekend but with a very slight bump in size. I don’t think that I would call it a surf day but there will be a couple of waves to ride if you time things right.

We are going to see a slight increase in WNW-NW swell (290-300) on Monday…which will basically take the exposed spots from ankle-knee high+ to knee-waist high…nothing super exciting but better than flat. The top spots in San Diego and Southern Ventura will have some waist-chest high waves that will probably stay closer to chest high on the lower tides.

Weatherwise the Santa Ana’s are going to come back…strongest through midday. So look for mostly variable offshore conditions through the morning and then N-NE winds around 15-20 knots for the afternoon (and stronger gusts through the North LA/Ventura areas). It should stay surfable throughout the day, which is a plus.

I would probably plan on busting out the super-small gear for Monday…basically what you were riding for the weekend. Some of the smaller surfers might be able to get away with some fishy shapes if you are down in San Diego. Don’t spend a lot of time driving around…it won’t be worth jumping counties and if you don’t have waves nearby you probably aren’t going to find much in your area. Oh yeah…the 6’+ tide is going to flatten out the surf tomorrow morning…you might want to avoid that.

Here are the tides…try not to blow away tomorrow.

03:14AM LST 1.5 L
09:14AM LST 6.6 H (sucks for us)
04:27PM LST -1.5 L
10:48PM LST 4.3 H

Surf on Thursday - Whose leftovers are those?

Thursday is looking like a semi-surf day...nothing great but if you are already on vacation it should be worth paddling out.

We will have a mix of SW swell, leftover tropical swell, and some local WNW windswell. Most spots will continue to hold in the waist-chest high range. Standout S facing spots and good combo breaks will have some chest-shoulder high sets. Like I said nothing to get excited about but rideable.

Winds are looking similar to Wednesday but I think they will be a bit lighter in the morning than we have seen over the last couple of days. Expect light and variable winds for most spots in the morning with a couple of patches of light WNW flow around Santa Barbara and Ventura. OC and San Diego should be fairly clean but there may be some slight SW flow for the more exposed areas. All spots will see increasing W winds around 10-12+ knots during the afternoon.

Expect more of the semi-peaky, semi-mushy, shape that has been sort of plaguing our beaches lately. Most of our swell is medium-short period so there just isn’t a ton of push behind it...I think your best bet is to check the spots that traditionally like windswell and have some halfway decent sandbars. I think the combination of the two should give it a little more speed and punch. It looks like the biggest waves will be showing through Orange County and the San Diego combo spots...but I wouldn't plan on driving very far to surf either of these areas. Also we have a long holiday weekend lining up, the crowds at the beach are going to be heavy, I would plan on the crowd starting to build tomorrow no matter what the surf looks like.