Rain and Wind for the Weekend – Looking Nasty

This won’t be much of a surf weekend…the weather will be pretty lame and onshore winds are going to kill it on Sunday.

Hey I wanted to say thanks to you guys for filling out the survey…I am getting a lot of good responses…I will probably close it down on Sunday (so I can get the after action stuff done early next week)…If you haven’t responded yet, here is the link

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/BGTYQRC

Ok back to the surf….In the water on Saturday we are going to have slowly fading WNW energy, mostly leftovers from earlier in the week but with a mix of other medium period energy from fronts following that bigger one…in general it will be smaller though. We will also have a mix of building S-SW windswell moving in with the front.



On Saturday look for wave heights to hold around waist-chest high+ at the average WNW facing breaks. Top spots will be in the chest-head high range with a few inconsistent bigger sets lurking around out there.

Conditions look pretty lame…S-SW winds around 10-15 knots are expected to hold throughout the day and then strengthen up to about 15-20 knots by the afternoon. Rain, clouds, and other nastiness will push through all day.

One thing worth noting is that the S winds don’t totally blow out every spot…so there may be a little surf-wiggle-room during the dawn patrol. If you don’t mind the rain, you might want to give the S protected spots a look, particularly if they like the windswell combo stuff we have in the water for Saturday morning.



On Sunday the windswell builds back up, but so do the onshore winds, so it doesn’t look very surfable.



Wave heights will start off similar to Saturday but I expect chundery mess of WNW slop moving in later in the day as the W-NW winds top out around 20 knots.

Basically at this point…with the onshore W winds in the forecast…I think Sunday will be a write-off.



So not super exciting this weekend…I would just keep a weather eye on the protected spots on Saturday, but other than that we can expect more rain and onshore wind. Stay dry and have a good one.

Here are the tides…

12/12/2009 Saturday
05:41AM LST 5.9 H
01:04PM LST -0.3 L
07:15PM LST 3.5 H

12/13/2009 Sunday
12:00AM LST 2.0 L
06:19AM LST 6.0 H
01:47PM LST -0.7 L
08:07PM LST 3.6 H

Surf for Friday – maybe I should add a title

Friday will be a surf day...overall nothing great, but still fun in the right spots.

We will have a mix of S-SW swell (180-210) coming out of the Southern Hemi, some quickly fading SE swell (160-170) from former TS Blanca, and some increasing NW windswell.

That tropical swell showed up on Thursday with a bit more energy than I was expecting...a few of the better exposed SE spots had some shoulder-head high sets. It definitely didn’t show everywhere but if you were around SE facing spots in North OC (and a few of the other good SE facing spots in the other counties) there were a few decent sized waves.



Friday’s wave heights will be pretty similar to Thursday’s...average exposed spots will be around waist-chest high on the lower tides. The better S facing spots and good combo spots will be in the chest-shoulder high range on the inconsistent sets. The standout S spots (that have some SE exposure) will be more consistently in the shoulder high+ range through the morning but will lose size and consistency as we move into the afternoon.

The slight eddy conditions will also continue on Friday. We can expect mostly light and variable winds through Santa Barbara, Ventura, and LA tomorrow. Orange County and San Diego will see slight southerly winds around 5-6 knots through the morning. WNW winds 10-14 knots move back in through mid-afternoon.



Like I said it looks “ok” tomorrow...nothing really stands out, other than a few of the top SE facing spots, and those won’t be worth driving very far to look at. Still I think it will be a surf day...we have light winds and low tides in the morning as well as a playful swell mix...add in that water temps are climbing out of the cellar (somewhere in the 61-63-degree range) and it makes a good case for getting in the water.

Here are the tides...

06:01AM LDT -0.2 L
12:27PM LDT 3.8 H
05:26PM LDT 2.3 L
11:14PM LDT 5.0 H

Waves for the Weekend - Sloppy with an extra side of funky

It doesn’t look like much of a surf weekend...the surf stays on the small side with just sort of substandard swells, the weather gets sort of nasty as rain and S winds move in, and if that wasn't bad enough we have a super high tide that peaks in the mornings and just buries us.

Surfwise we are going to have a mix of SSW energy and some local WNW windswell on Saturday. The average exposed breaks will have surf in the waist-high+ range while the better combo spots stay right around chest high with some rare chest high+ sets. Shape will be a bit soft since all of these swells have fairly short periods (around 12-14 seconds on the SSW'er and around 6-8 on WNW energy)...add in that the high tide swamps it...and it looks like mostly close to shore mushburgers or shorebreak.

Sunday the WNW energy builds as more windswell starts to arrive...it will be pretty steep with most of the energy coming in around 290-300+ and the winds setting it up will come along with it...so shape isn't going to be that great. The top exposed spots will build into the chest-shoulder high+ range by the afternoon...maybe even a few bigger waves at the really good windswell spots.

Weather is what really works us over. S-SW winds around 10-15 knots and periods of rain start to arrive on Saturday (probably strongest by the afternoon). Sunday will see the same winds in the morning and then more W-erly flow by the afternoon...probably more rain as well. Looks like another cold front with more consistent rain pushes through the area on Monday. (lame).



Anyway I don't think it will be worth spending much time trying to hunt down the surf this weekend...the combo of the tide, weather, and lack of surf is going to be pretty frustrating. There may be a couple of small surf windows out there if you need to get in the water for some reason...so if you "have" to surf I would try and pick a spot with the right mix of protection from the winds, lack of tide sensitivity, but with still enough exposure to pull in a few waves...(yeah like you are going to find a lot spots like this). Really I think your best bet is to keep an eye on the local winds, if they aren't too bad give the cams a quick check and see if you can spot a fun peak or two.

Have a good one...

PS...if I don't make it back on Monday it is because I had too much fun at the Christmas party and ended up borrowing (I believe the technical term is "piracy") someone's Duffy Boat and terrorized Newport Harbor. Man I love holiday parties!



Here are the tides

Saturday
02:18AM LST 2.0 L
08:31AM LST 7.0 H
04:05PM LST -1.7 L
10:35PM LST 3.8 H

Sunday
03:10AM LST 2.1 L
09:19AM LST 6.8 H
04:54PM LST -1.5 L
11:27PM LST 3.8 H